Severe Thunderstorm Warning 148, NWS Twin Cities, MN

785 
WWUS53 KMPX 060433
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1133 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

MNC073-173-060500-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0148.000000T0000Z-250806T0500Z/
Lac qui Parle MN-Yellow Medicine MN-
1133 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT 
FOR SOUTHERN LAC QUI PARLE AND NORTHWESTERN YELLOW MEDICINE 
COUNTIES...

At 1133 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line from 
7 miles south of Marietta to 34 miles west of Canby, moving 
southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and small hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to
         mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
  Canby, Madison, Dawson, Porter, Boyd, Marietta, Providence, 
  Nassau, Madison Airport, Florida Creek Wildlife Management Area, 
  St. Leo and Burr.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Anyone outdoors should move to shelter inside a well-built structure 
and stay away from windows. These storms are capable of producing 
widespread damaging winds.

&&

LAT...LON 4481 9645 4508 9645 4496 9582 4496 9581
      4495 9581 4494 9578 4494 9575 4492 9572
      4463 9605 4463 9645
TIME...MOT...LOC 0418Z 306DEG 28KT 4499 9658 4480 9675 4461 9705

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

$$

Borghoff

385 
WWUS53 KMPX 060444
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1144 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

MNC073-173-060500-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0148.000000T0000Z-250806T0500Z/
Lac qui Parle MN-Yellow Medicine MN-
1144 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT 
FOR SOUTHWESTERN LAC QUI PARLE AND WEST CENTRAL YELLOW MEDICINE 
COUNTIES...

At 1144 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line from 
11 miles south of Marietta to 32 miles southwest of Canby, moving 
southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and small hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
  Canby, Providence, Burr and Florida Creek Wildlife Management Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter inside a well-built structure and stay away from 
windows. These storms are capable of producing damaging winds.

&&

LAT...LON 4481 9645 4492 9645 4499 9638 4486 9601
      4463 9623 4463 9645
TIME...MOT...LOC 0433Z 306DEG 28KT 4491 9644 4472 9661 4453 9691

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Borghoff

182 
WWUS53 KMPX 060459
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1159 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

MNC073-173-060509-
/O.EXP.KMPX.SV.W.0148.000000T0000Z-250806T0500Z/
Lac qui Parle MN-Yellow Medicine MN-
1159 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT CDT FOR 
SOUTHWESTERN LAC QUI PARLE AND WEST CENTRAL YELLOW MEDICINE 
COUNTIES...

The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe 
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property. 
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire. However, gusty 
winds are still possible with these thunderstorms.

&&

LAT...LON 4499 9638 4486 9601 4463 9623 4463 9645
      4481 9645 4492 9645
TIME...MOT...LOC 0444Z 306DEG 28KT 4486 9634 4467 9651 4448 9682

$$

Borghoff

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
642 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms possible in western MN this
  afternoon, followed by a more likely round area-wide tonight.
  A few strong storms could produce gusty winds and large hail.

- Heat and humidity increase gradually this week.

- More rain and storms expected Friday into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

Satellite imagery this afternoon shows a widespread cumulus field
developing along a fairly sharp gradient with western MN clear due
to some approaching convection with eastern MN and western WI seeing
the cu. There is a hint of an outflow boundary out ahead of the
convection which is moving through Fargo Moorhead around 230pm,
which has been just enough to prevent the cu development east of the
storms. High resolution guidance has been wishy washy on keeping
these storms around, with most of the guidance so far today showing
a gradual weakening trend with a trajectory favoring the far
northern edge of the MPX CWA, favoring an east-northeasterly path
which would largely keep it clear of our area. Isolated showers and
some rumbles of thunder are possible generally west of St. Cloud
through around 5-6pm, at which point this line should be far enough
north to be out of the area.

Another convective complex is expected to develop along a line from
central SoDak to eastern NoDak later this evening, eventually
spreading eastwards and affecting our area overnight. The 18z HRRR
shows a swath of development eventually becoming a linear system or
MCS by 02-04z, moving into western MN around 04-05z. Guidance favors
a weakening trend throughout the night with relatively weak forcing
along a weak low level jet and subtle shortwave, with scattered
showers and storms moving into the Twin Cities metro between 08-10z.
The stronger segment of the line is expected to follow the gradient
of instability which will eventually lead to redevelopment favoring
the southern edge of the line and pushing it into Iowa around
sunrise with lingering weaker showers and storms for us. Lingering
showers are possible throughout the day tomorrow, however coverage
will be isolated and QPF relatively low as a result, with only a few
localized areas seeing more than a few hundredths of new rainfall.

A shortwave ridge builds into the region behind the departing
showers on Thursday with increasing 850mb temperatures west-
southwest of the region which will eventually fuel our next chances
for showers and storms arriving Friday evening/night into Saturday.
A developing low pressure system underneath a potential occluded
trough will enter the northern plains via the northern CONUS Rockies
by 18z Friday, as the surface low strengthens underneath. A surge of
warmer temperatures are expected in the lower levels and at ground
level with a strong low level jet ahead of the main trough axis,
with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s with some low 90s possible
Friday, with temps moderating a bit once rain and storms overspread
the area into Saturday. The cold front associated with this system
is  expected to contain the best overall dynamics for storms,
expected to move through the area on Saturday. Global guidance and
ensembles keep sporadic showers and storms around through the
weekend and into early next week with temperatures remaining on the
warm side as the cold front will not fully push out the warmer
airmass, especially aloft. As we head into the middle of the month,
there appears to be a sign for a larger scale ridge to build into
the area which would mean a relatively dry period, however there is
not enough confidence to say we will remain completely dry
throughout.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 642 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

Large complex of TS over southeastern ND will progress southeast
this evening. AXN and RWF stand the best chance of IFR/MVFR
conditions and TS, but showers and a few TS could reach as far
east as STC, MKT, and MSP before dissipating. MVFR cigs may
linger through Wednesday morning across western MN, then VFR
expected area wide by afternoon.

KMSP...No concerns this evening. Chance of -SHRA early
Wednesday morning (mainly between 10-13Z).

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Chc MVFR/-TSRA early. Wind S 5-10 kts.
FRI...VFR. Chc MVFR/-TSRA late. Wind S 10-15 kts.
SAT...VFR. Chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind SW 10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...Borghoff

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
816 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

MNZ041-042-047>049-054>058-064>067-073>075-082-083-091-092-070130-
Douglas-Todd-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Redwood-
Brown-Nicollet-Watonwan-Blue Earth-Martin-Faribault-
816 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Minnesota...south central Minnesota...southwest Minnesota and
west central Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms will move into western Minnesota late this evening
and into parts of southern Minnesota toward dawn. A few storms
could be severe with large hail and damaging winds. Locally heavy
rain is possible as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

A few rounds of strong or severe thunderstorms are possible
Wednesday night, and Friday night through Saturday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed overnight.

MNZ043>045-050>053-059>063-068>070-076>078-084-085-093-WIZ014>016-
023>028-070130-
Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-
Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Waseca-Steele-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Chippewa-Eau Claire-
816 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Minnesota...east central Minnesota...south central Minnesota...
southeast Minnesota...northwest Wisconsin and west central
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

A few rounds of strong or severe thunderstorms are possible
Wednesday night, and Friday night through Saturday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

Borghoff