Severe Thunderstorm Warning 105, NWS Twin Cities, MN

673 
WWUS53 KMPX 152322
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
622 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

MNC019-152330-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0105.000000T0000Z-250715T2330Z/
Carver MN-
622 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT 
FOR EAST CENTRAL CARVER COUNTY...

At 622 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Victoria, or 
23 miles southwest of Minneapolis, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
         to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
  Waconia, Victoria, Chaska, Chanhassen and Eden Prairie.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter inside a well-built structure and stay away from 
windows. This storm is capable of producing damaging winds and large 
hail.

&&

LAT...LON 4480 9381 4485 9377 4489 9352 4481 9354
TIME...MOT...LOC 2308Z 262DEG 24KT 4481 9383

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

JPC

714 
WWUS53 KMPX 152332
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
632 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

MNC019-152342-
/O.EXP.KMPX.SV.W.0105.000000T0000Z-250715T2330Z/
Carver MN-
632 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR EAST CENTRAL CARVER 
COUNTY...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe 
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property. 
Therefore, the warning has been allowed to expire. However, gusty 
winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement 
agency. They will send your report to the National Weather Service 
office.

&&

LAT...LON 4480 9381 4485 9377 4489 9352 4481 9354
TIME...MOT...LOC 2322Z 262DEG 24KT 4482 9369

$$

JPC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
320 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through
tomorrow morning. A few severe storms are possible along with the
threat of heavy rain.

- Much cooler temperatures behind this system will hang around
through the end of the week.

- Next chance for showers and storms arrives late Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

A stalled frontal boundary is draped across central Minnesota early
this afternoon. This has been the focus for some sub-severe
thunderstorms throughout the morning and this afternoon. Additional
thunderstorm development is expected over the coming hours as
further destabilization continues along and south of the front.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for portions of
central Minnesota and western Wisconsin through this evening.
Dew points are in the low to mid 70s with temperatures in the
upper 80s, allowing for heat indices in the mid to upper 90s.
While there is no shortage of CAPE, the shear environment is
marginal. This should lead to some fairly unorganized convection
with the threat for a few strong to severe storms along with
some heavy rain due to slow storm motion. The front will slowly
begin to sag southward late this evening through the overnight,
with most CAMs showing a line of storms on the leading edge. The
front will also work to bring some smoke back to the surface
across far west central Minnesota, though this should be short
lived. As instability decreases after dark, the focus shifts to
more of a heavy rain threat with PWATs approaching 2". An MCV is
forecast to move across northern Iowa early tomorrow morning,
leading to another uptick in storms across much of
central/southern Minnesota and eventually western Wisconsin.
Generally, QPF totals through tomorrow range from an inch to an
inch and a half, but locally higher amounts of 2-3" aren't out
of the question. Temperatures tomorrow will be some 20-30
degrees cooler behind the front with locales across central
Minnesota topping out in the low 60s with mid 70s further south.
Rain will gradually taper off by late tomorrow.

Thursday and Friday will feature drier conditions and highs in the
low to mid 70s. Our next chance of precip is late Friday into early
Saturday as a shortwave moves across the region. Highs in the 80s
return for the weekend with mostly dry weather expected. A more
active pattern is on the horizon with several disturbances tracking
across the Upper Midwest with temperatures increasing through the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Some scattered development of storms and showers is occurring
along the cold front in west/central MN and near the Twin Ports
associated with the warm front. Models continue to show a messy
storm mode along the front as it sags southward this evening. As
the boundary stalls, storms could train over parts of east-
central MN and western WI. Mostly SHRA is expected, but with
plenty of instability present, periods of TSRA will remain a
possibility. There is just limited wind shear, so storm
organization will be lacking making it more of a pulse-y
environment. Cigs will gradually lower through the night, with
all sites reaching low MVFR, and many dipping into IFR for a
period tomorrow morning.

KMSP...Confidence is high for a 2-4 hour period of storms this
evening, but the exact timing is uncertain. Recent model trends
indicate a later start time, closer to 02z, however the early
development out west warrants keeping 01z as the start time for
the TEMPO this evening. The boundary stalls overnight, and
scattered showers and storms will move from west to east. There
is a chance (30-50%) that this cluster of rain stays north of
KMSP, allowing a 6-8 hour window of dry conditions before more
consistent yet less intense rain tomorrow morning. We could see
BR/DZ continue after 18z tomorrow, especially if the low cigs
hand around longer than expected.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
FRI...VFR. Chc -TSRA after dark. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
SAT...VFR. Chc -TSRA early morning. Wind SE bcmg N 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Anoka-Carver-
     Dakota-Hennepin-Ramsey-Scott-Washington.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...BED

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
317 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
162030-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
317 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Outside of central Minnesota, afternoon heat index values will
remain in the middle to upper 90s, resulting in dangerous heat
levels for those active outdoors for a prolonged period of time
through early this evening.

Numerous thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening.
Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across western and
central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin. Large hail and damaging
wind gusts will be the primary threats. In addition, locally heavy
rainfall could lead to areas of flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed.

bed

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
447 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

MNZ057-058-152230-
Kandiyohi MN-Meeker MN-
447 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL MEEKER AND SOUTHEASTERN
KANDIYOHI COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

At 447 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles northwest of Cosmos, or 16 miles southeast of Willmar, moving
east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Litchfield, Dassel, Greenleaf, Darwin, Thorpe, Strout and
  Litchfield Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4493 9485 4506 9489 4523 9426 4499 9426
      4498 9437 4498 9450 4497 9450
TIME...MOT...LOC 2147Z 255DEG 28KT 4500 9477

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JPC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
449 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

MNZ052-053-152230-
Isanti MN-Chisago MN-
449 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL ISANTI AND NORTHWESTERN
CHISAGO COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

At 449 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northeast of Cambridge, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Cambridge, Rush City, Stanchfield, Harris, Grandy, Rush City
  Airport, Cambridge Airport, Wild River State Park and Chengwatana
  State Forest.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4552 9324 4562 9333 4573 9311 4573 9285
      4572 9285 4572 9287 4570 9287 4569 9288
      4566 9288 4565 9289 4562 9289
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 235DEG 17KT 4562 9317

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JPC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
523 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

MNZ052-053-WIZ014-152315-
Isanti MN-Polk WI-Chisago MN-
523 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN ISANTI...CENTRAL
CHISAGO AND NORTHWESTERN POLK COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

At 523 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles southwest of North Branch, or 9 miles southeast of Cambridge,
moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  East Bethel, Weber, Spring Lake, North Branch, Branch, Harris,
  Chengwatana State Forest, Wild River State Park, Wolf Creek and
  Cushing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4541 9316 4553 9319 4565 9289 4564 9289
      4564 9253 4546 9256 4541 9302
TIME...MOT...LOC 2223Z 252DEG 32KT 4547 9308

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JPC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
534 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

MNZ059-152315-
Wright MN-
534 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
WRIGHT COUNTY UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

At 534 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms extending from 6 miles south of Kimball to over
Cokato, or extending from 22 miles west of Buffalo to 15 miles
southwest of Buffalo, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Cokato, Howard Lake, French Lake, South Haven, Waverly, Annandale,
  Montrose, Rassat, Maple Lake, Buffalo, Lake Maria State Park,
  Clearwater, Silver Creek, St. Michael, Monticello, Otsego,
  Albertville, Big Lake, Hanover and Greenfield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4502 9420 4510 9426 4527 9426 4532 9419
      4530 9416 4534 9409 4538 9408 4542 9404
      4540 9401 4539 9401 4540 9399 4536 9389
      4534 9387 4533 9383 4530 9377 4530 9374
      4528 9369 4516 9366 4515 9368 4512 9372
TIME...MOT...LOC 2233Z 239DEG 26KT 4522 9431 4507 9413

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JPC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
537 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

MNZ053-060-061-063-152315-
Hennepin MN-Washington MN-Chisago MN-Anoka MN-
537 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN
WASHINGTON...NORTHERN HENNEPIN...ANOKA AND SOUTHEASTERN CHISAGO
COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

At 537 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms extending from 5 miles northeast of East Bethel to
over St. Anthony, or extending from 10 miles southeast of Cambridge
to 17 miles northwest of Minneapolis, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Brooklyn Park, Maple Grove, Coon Rapids, Blaine, Andover, Fridley,
  Shoreview, Ramsey, Champlin, Lino Lakes, Forest Lake, Anoka, Ham
  Lake, Hugo, Mounds View, East Bethel, Rogers, St. Francis, Spring
  Lake Park and Corcoran.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4510 9361 4541 9338 4541 9302 4543 9302
      4544 9274 4513 9298 4512 9310 4512 9323
TIME...MOT...LOC 2236Z 259DEG 26KT 4541 9313 4517 9348

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JPC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
552 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

MNZ060-068-152315-
Hennepin MN-Carver MN-
552 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL CARVER AND
SOUTHWESTERN HENNEPIN COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

At 552 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms extending from over Mayer to over Norwood Young
America, or extending from 19 miles south of Buffalo to 22 miles
east of Hutchinson, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Hollywood, New Germany, Norwood Young America, Mayer, Watertown,
  Waconia, Lake Waconia, Minnetrista, Cologne, St. Bonifacius,
  Mound, Victoria, Shorewood, Orono, Chaska, Chanhassen, Carver and
  Independence.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4489 9401 4492 9401 4499 9363 4477 9361
      4477 9401
TIME...MOT...LOC 2251Z 265DEG 30KT 4491 9393 4478 9396

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JPC