Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1228 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 930 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

Today through Tonight...

Unsettled weather continues across the area through tonight with
several shortwaves transiting the area embedded within broader
upper troughing. A stalled surface boundary is evident this
morning based on surface observations and visible satellite
imagery stretching from the FL panhandle then northwest across
southwestern Alabama into interior southeast Mississippi. To the
north of this, surface dewpoints and instability are a bit muted
compared to the airmass to the south of the boundary going from
mid/upper 60's dews to lower to middle 70's dews. This presently
denotes where the instability gradient lies and where surface
based activity can be expected to the south. As the day progresses
this boundary does wash out somewhat as areas to the north
recover and destabilize, however this boundary will still exist in
some shape and form allowing for a focus of convection later this
morning into the afternoon and evening hours.

It is likely there will be multiple rounds of storms during the
period, with isolated to scattered showers and storms still
possible in-between more robust rounds of convection across the
entire area. The first round looks to be late morning into the
afternoon hours as a remnant MCS pushes in from the northwest
across southeastern Mississippi into southwestern Alabama. This
feature will likely refire strong to potentially severe storms
over the aforementioned area as we head into the afternoon hours
when it interacts with the boundary. A second round may develop on
the tail end of the first round late afternoon into the evening
hours as the next shortwave moves overhead. Once again strong to
potentially severe storms is possible. Additionally, this second
round may be more impactful to very sensitive areas for heavy
rainfall in southwestern Alabama into the Florida Panhandle that
received a significant amount of rain last night. This may set the
stage for additional flash flooding with any storm that moves
overhead. Primary hazards with any severe storms will be strong to
damaging wind gusts, with large hail possible in any of the more
robust semi-discrete to discrete storms.

Temperatures warm into the upper 80's and lower 90's for most
locations before cooling into the upper 60's and lower 70's
tonight. A High risk of rip currents continues through Tuesday for
the Alabama and Florida Panhandle beaches. MM/25

Wednesday Through Sunday...

A unsettled summer pattern will continue through the middle of
this week and into the weekend. Broad southwesterly flow will
develop across the area by midweek as upper ridging builds over
the western Atlantic and a upper level cutoff low slowly lifts
north from south Texas. At the surface, a stalled boundary will be
setup across the area from west to east on Wednesday and
Thursday. This boundary will likely continue to provide a focus
for low level convergence and heavy rainfall. Given the relatively
weak flow aloft and lack of true focused upper level forcing
mechanism, storms will likely be driven by the diurnal cycle with
a focus right along this boundary. Expect storms to develop along
this zone and any remnant outflow/seabreeze boundaries during the
afternoon. By the weekend, the surface boundary will have mixed
out leading to a more traditional summertime pattern with storms
developing along the advancing seabreeze and remnant boundaries.
Storms will likely be a little more widespread than a typical
summer day as some upper shortwave troughs will likely progress
through the southwesterly flow. PWATS will be in the 1.5 to 2 inch
range each day allowing for efficient rain processes with any
storms. While a more focused heavy rainfall event doesn't look
likely, continued rounds of rain throughout the week could result
in localized flash flooding. Temperatures will continue to be on
the warm side with highs in the 90s and with all the moisture, do
not expect any relief from the mugginess this week. BB/8

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across the
forecast area through the afternoon and most of this evening. The
convection will shift offshore tonight, then move back onshore
Tuesday morning. General upper end MVFR/VFR conditions expected
outside of the convection, with drops in conditions to low end
MVFR along with locally variable winds in the convection likely.
/16

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 217 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

Small craft operators heading out to South Mobile Bay, the
Mississippi Sound, and the Gulf Waters should exercise caution
today and tonight due to moderate southwesterly winds of 15-20
knots. Winds will decrease on Tuesday, followed by a light onshore
flow through the remainder of the week. An increase in coverage
of showers and thunderstorms will occur Tuesday through Friday.
The potential of waterspouts exists during morning activity near
the coast. /22

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
237 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

ALZ056-060-092015-
Conecuh AL-Covington AL-
237 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL CONECUH AND
NORTHWESTERN COVINGTON COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM CDT...

At 237 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles west of Red Level, or 13 miles southeast of Evergreen, moving
east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Andalusia, River Falls, Red Level, Heath, and Gantt.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3123 8637 3130 8682 3143 8682 3151 8640
      3145 8640 3148 8637 3148 8636
TIME...MOT...LOC 1937Z 272DEG 23KT 3136 8675

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
257 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

MSZ067-075-076-092045-
Perry MS-Greene MS-Wayne MS-
257 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN PERRY...SOUTH
CENTRAL WAYNE AND NORTHERN GREENE COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM CDT...

At 256 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles southeast of Richton, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Richton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3121 8891 3137 8896 3151 8855 3123 8849
TIME...MOT...LOC 1956Z 257DEG 20KT 3131 8884

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
338 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

ALZ060-092130-
Covington AL-
338 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL COVINGTON COUNTY
THROUGH 430 PM CDT...

At 338 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Andalusia, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Andalusia and Opp.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3118 8652 3132 8654 3144 8619 3115 8619
TIME...MOT...LOC 2038Z 257DEG 19KT 3126 8645

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
339 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

ALZ059-092130-
Escambia AL-
339 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL ESCAMBIA COUNTY THROUGH
430 PM CDT...

At 339 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of I65 And AL 113, or 9 miles west of Brewton, moving
east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Brewton, East Brewton, and Riverview.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3103 8689 3106 8731 3119 8732 3126 8704
      3126 8693
TIME...MOT...LOC 2039Z 261DEG 17KT 3113 8722

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MM