Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
Issued by National Weather Service New Orleans LA
636 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025

Seabreeze convection, right on schedule per the CAM guidance,
will continue to increase in coverage through the remainder of the
afternoon and into this evening across the CWA. Although the
shear will be limited initially, the thermodynamic profile with
MLCAPEs around 3000 J/kg and DCAPEs around 1300 J/kg will mean the
potential for a few strong to possibly severe storms this
afternoon and evening, mainly due to strong downburst winds. Thus
the recently issued severe thunderstorm watch 344 for the MS
counties until 02Z this evening. Further west of the CWA, a more
organized cluster of strong/severe storms will continue to take
shape this afternoon/evening. This developing MCS is in
association with a shortwave/vort max moving northeastward through
the Northwest Gulf and SE TX/SW LA. The net result will be
increasing rain chances as early as 02Z this evening as this
entire cluster pushes eastward into the CWA overnight. Primary
threats will remain from gusty winds as storms become even more
outflow-dominant along with the potential for locally heavy rain.

A respite from convection would appear likely by sunrise Thursday
as the main outflow shifts south and east of the CWA. However,
another even stronger shortwave is expected to affect the CWA and
allow convection to regenerate on Thursday. So even with a more
stable airmass, the dynamical forcing should be enough to overcome
this and regenerate at least scattered to numerous convection on
Thursday. The potential for strong to possibly severe storms will
exist again on Thursday but probably not as high as this afternoon
and tonight given the uncertainty of the extent of how much the
airmass will be worked over.

Another longer convective respite is expected by Thursday night
as more subsident and drier conditions are expected to overspread
the area from west to east in the wake of this strong shortwave.
The last round of convection is expected to occur along and ahead
of a late season cold front which is expected to pass through the
CWA by Friday afternoon/evening. Looking like at least a broken
line of storms with some potential for strong storms given the
modest to high instability.

A chamber of commerce weekend is in store as dewpoints drop into
the 60s with even some upper 50 dewpoints in the northern CWA.
This will translate into overnight lows in the upper 50s to lower
60s for most areas away from the coast over the weekend. Daytime
highs will be in the lower to mid 80s.

A gradual warming and moistening trend is expected next week as
return flow reestablishes itself with the surface high pressure
quickly departing eastward. Moisture will remain too shallow to
support rain chances until Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025

Convection slowly has been filling in across our western areas
this evening in response to an upper-level disturbance across the
lower Mississippi River Valley. Expect that activity to slowly
make its way eastward towards the western terminals by 10pm
tonight. Confidence is a little higher in those terminals (MOB and
BFM), so TEMPO groups were introduced there. Further south and
east at JKL and PNS, confidence is a little more limited with
storm coverage due to waning daytime heating and less support, so
only PROB30 groups were mentioned there. Regardless, any activity
should weaken or exit the area by 4am. Afterwards, redevelopment
is expected again during the mid-morning timeframe across the
western areas. This activity should make its way eastward, but
confidence remains limited enough to keep only PROB30 groups for
now.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025

Gradient mostly south/southwest flow with 1-2 feet seas will
prevail through Thursday across the coastal waters. The flow will
continue to veer and increase to a more westerly direction ahead
of the next cold front on Friday. An offshore flow will occur
behind the front by Friday night and persist into Saturday night.
Seas will reach around 3 feet by Friday and Saturday due to the
stronger gradient. Onshore flow will resume by late Sunday and
persist into next week. No SCAs are expected through the period.
Convection will be numerous to widespread tonight through Friday
evening given the aforementioned shortwaves mentioned above. Dry
conditions are expected over the weekend and into Tuesday of next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      70  84  69  86  62  85  63  86 /  40  90  30  80  10   0   0  10
Pensacola   73  85  74  87  67  84  68  85 /  40  80  50  80  30   0   0  10
Destin      76  86  76  87  69  85  69  86 /  30  70  50  80  30   0   0   0
Evergreen   68  86  67  85  60  85  59  87 /  30  80  40  80  10   0   0   0
Waynesboro  67  83  67  82  57  82  59  86 /  50  90  20  70  10   0   0  10
Camden      68  83  66  82  59  81  59  84 /  40  80  40  70  10   0   0   0
Crestview   70  88  68  88  62  86  59  89 /  30  80  40  90  20   0   0  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
Issued by National Weather Service New Orleans LA
650 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025

ALZ055>058-060-290030-
Monroe AL-Conecuh AL-Butler AL-Covington AL-Crenshaw AL-
650 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN BUTLER...CENTRAL
MONROE...SOUTHWESTERN CRENSHAW...CENTRAL CONECUH AND NORTHERN
COVINGTON COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM CDT...

At 650 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles southeast of Opp to 7 miles east of
Evergreen to Excel. Movement was northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
I65 And US 84, Gantt, Frisco City, Peterman, Andalusia, Repton, River
Falls, Opp, Excel, McKenzie, Dozier, Monroeville, Red Level, Heath,
and Evergreen.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3136 8687 3138 8744 3166 8737 3162 8665
      3145 8619 3112 8620
TIME...MOT...LOC 2350Z 215DEG 10KT 3119 8619 3142 8683 3144 8732

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
Issued by National Weather Service New Orleans LA
912 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025

ALZ261-263-290300-
Mobile Inland AL-Mobile Central AL-
912 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL MOBILE COUNTY THROUGH
1000 PM CDT...

At 911 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles southwest of Mobile Regional Airport, or 6 miles northwest of
Tillmans Corner, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Midtown Mobile, Chunchula, Prichard, I65 And AL 158, I65 And I165,
Semmes, Creola, Chickasaw, Saraland, Mobile Regional Airport,
Satsuma, and Axis.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3060 8838 3101 8821 3090 8796 3088 8798
      3087 8798 3087 8797 3086 8798 3086 8796
      3054 8825
TIME...MOT...LOC 0211Z 208DEG 22KT 3063 8827

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

PG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
Issued by National Weather Service New Orleans LA
945 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025

ALZ261-262-290330-
Baldwin Inland AL-Mobile Inland AL-
945 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN MOBILE AND
NORTHWESTERN BALDWIN COUNTIES THROUGH 1030 PM CDT...

At 944 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Axis, or 5 miles northeast of Creola, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Axis, I65 And AL 225, and Stockton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3086 8799 3098 8808 3125 8772 3111 8761
      3100 8762
TIME...MOT...LOC 0244Z 236DEG 21KT 3095 8798

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

PG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
Issued by National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1221 AM CDT Thu May 29 2025

ALZ060-FLZ205-290615-
Covington AL-Okaloosa Inland FL-
1221 AM CDT Thu May 29 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN COVINGTON AND NORTH
CENTRAL OKALOOSA COUNTIES THROUGH 115 AM CDT...

At 1220 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles northwest of Laurel Hill, or 17 miles west of Florala, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southern Covington
and north central Okaloosa Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3092 8663 3099 8669 3100 8669 3100 8670
      3101 8671 3110 8670 3136 8638 3114 8619
TIME...MOT...LOC 0520Z 233DEG 21KT 3104 8662

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH