Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
Issued by National Weather Service New Orleans LA
645 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 154 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025

The decaying MCS that entered the area this morning has continued to
track east and is beginning to feel the increasing shear from the
weak shortwave trough axis to the west currently lifting out of the
lower Mississippi River Basin. As such, new updrafts have gradually
grown more organized over portions of Conecuh, Butler, Covington,
and Crenshaw counties. These storms are capable of hail up to
quarter size and damaging winds. Given the lack of low-level wind
shear in the lowest km and best shear divorced from the main
boundary axis, it is unlikely that a tornado would develop in this
environment from a single cell storm. However, a couple of brief
spin ups cannot be ruled out over the aforementioned counties in the
next few hours though this would likely need to be derived from an
organized bowing segment from congealing storms as we're currently
seeing near Crenshaw county.

By around 4PM we will be saying goodbye to this MCS and pivoting
our attention back to the west where some CAM guidance has hinted
at the potential for redevelopment of showers and storms across
southern MS which will largely be a damaging wind and hail threat
with isolated severe storms. These storms would enter the area
around 7PM through 11PM this evening. As this secondary line
pushes through the southern flank may "lay down" more west to east
as it gets left behind allowing showers and storms to linger
along the AL and western FL Panhandle coastal areas into the
overnight hours.

Each successive day in the forecast becomes increasingly uncertain
as the MCS parade and the subsequent multiple interpretations by CAM
guidance in how to initialize it affects the latest forecasts. As of
right now, the forecast leans towards the latest guidance highlight
largely coastal, sea-breeze induced convection during the day
Wednesday. However, the global model guidance are in agreement that
yet another MCS will push from west to east along the northern Gulf
Coast on Wednesday afternoon driven by a another weak shortwave
within the WSW mid-upper flow. This MCS would arrive into the area
in the evening hours, but the longevity and severity of this line is
uncertain at this time, but generally straight hodographs and
spatially limited surface-based instability would keep the severe
weather threat closer to the coast with this wave.

Thursday through Monday... Yet another leading shortwave trough
within the WSW flow will help to kick off more showers and storms
during the day on Thursday which will provide another threat for
isolated severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging
winds primarily. But wait! There's more. The broad cut-off trough
over the central CONUS that will have been meandering for days
will finally dig across the southeastern CONUS delivering a
welcomed late- spring shot of cold air with a cold front. This
boundary will likely deliver widespread showers and storms across
the area though the severe threat is a bit murky by this range.

Through the weekend, northerly winds will knock dew point
temperatures back into the low 60s for much of the area and
temperatures on Friday and Saturday will be near 5 to 10 degrees
below average.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025

A developing mesoscale convective system in southern Mississippi
will follow the theata e axis toward the coast between 00z and
06z. This will result in a period of convective impacts at all of
the terminals, and these impacts are reflected with TEMPO groups
lasting 2 to 3 hours. After 06z, the convective threat will
diminish as the line pushes offshore and dissipates. However, a
more traditional seabreeze induced convective threat will develop
at the terminals between 20z and 24z tomorrow producing brief
periods of MVFR conditions and gusty winds.  PG

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 154 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025

A light to occasionally moderate onshore flow of 5 to
15 knots will prevail through Thursday, becoming westerly and
then northerly Friday into the weekend as a frontal system pushes
through the area. Wave heights will remain below 3 feet through
the Thursday, near 3 feet offshore on Friday, and then returning
to 1-2 feet through the weekend. Winds and seas will be locally
higher at times due to thunderstorms each night through Friday.
High pressure sets in and onshore flow gradually returns this
weekend and into next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      70  88  70  84  69  85  62  84 /  70  30  60  90  40  70  10  10
Pensacola   74  87  74  84  74  85  66  83 /  60  50  40  80  60  70  30  10
Destin      76  88  76  85  76  85  68  85 /  50  50  40  80  60  70  30  10
Evergreen   68  89  68  86  67  83  59  85 /  80  20  30  90  50  70  10  10
Waynesboro  66  86  67  82  67  81  59  82 /  90  30  90  90  40  60  10  10
Camden      66  85  68  82  66  80  59  81 /  90  10  70  90  50  70  10  10
Crestview   69  90  70  87  69  85  60  86 /  60  50  30  90  50  80  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
Issued by National Weather Service New Orleans LA
731 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025

ALZ052-053-MSZ076-280130-
Clarke AL-Washington AL-Greene MS-
731 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WASHINGTON...CENTRAL CLARKE AND
NORTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTIES THROUGH 830 PM CDT...

At 731 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles east of Millry to Chatom to 4 miles
southwest of Fruitdale. Movement was east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Saint Stephens, McIntosh, State Line, Wagarville, Grove Hill,
Fruitdale, Chatom, Jackson, Millry, Tibbie, Leroy, and Whatley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
south central and southwestern Alabama...and southeastern
Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3170 8752 3169 8757 3155 8757 3152 8762
      3148 8756 3144 8757 3141 8761 3141 8770
      3133 8775 3134 8775 3137 8776 3129 8777
      3127 8783 3121 8786 3132 8857 3144 8849
      3144 8845 3148 8845 3169 8831 3173 8751
TIME...MOT...LOC 0031Z 271DEG 29KT 3162 8820 3146 8824 3131 8848

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Zeringue

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
Issued by National Weather Service New Orleans LA
801 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025

ALZ052-261-MSZ076-280145-
Washington AL-Mobile Inland AL-Greene MS-
801 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN MOBILE...SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON AND EAST CENTRAL GREENE COUNTIES THROUGH 845 PM CDT...

At 800 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 3 miles south of Fruitdale to 4 miles west of
Deer Park to 7 miles southeast of Leakesville. Movement was east at
35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Movico, McIntosh, Citronelle, Mount Vernon, Deer Park, and Calvert.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
southwestern Alabama...and southeastern Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3133 8847 3135 8792 3131 8795 3131 8796
      3130 8796 3126 8799 3123 8793 3116 8798
      3112 8795 3109 8797 3102 8795 3111 8850
TIME...MOT...LOC 0100Z 269DEG 30KT 3129 8842 3120 8839 3109 8846

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Zeringue

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
Issued by National Weather Service New Orleans LA
802 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025

MSZ076-079-280145-
Greene MS-George MS-
802 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN GEORGE AND SOUTHERN
GREENE COUNTIES THROUGH 845 PM CDT...

At 802 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southeast of McLain, or 9 miles northwest of Lucedale, moving
east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern George
and southern Greene Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
southwestern Alabama...and southeastern Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3108 8877 3110 8843 3091 8842 3099 8880
TIME...MOT...LOC 0102Z 276DEG 19KT 3102 8871

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Zeringue

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>