Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
635 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

A shortwave trof advancing from the southern/central Plains leads
to the formation of an upper trof over the eastern states today,
and an associated surface low well off to the north brings a cold
front through the forecast area this afternoon into the evening
hours. A series of shortwaves also progress across the region
today, and a region of deep layer lift which developed in
response to this pattern is expected to result in a line of
convection progressing through the forecast area from early this
morning into the early afternoon hours. There continues to be the
potential for interactions between the larger scale pattern and
the series of shortwaves moving across the area to lead to
unfavorable upper level subsidence developing over the area as the
line of convection moves through. The fact that our environment
was worked over by convection today likely plays a role as well.
This weakening trend is indicated in the latest HRRR, WRF-ARW,
WRF-NSSL, HRW-FV3 and NAM 3km guidance to varying degrees. This
potential unfavorable environment could lead to much less
favorable shear than otherwise anticipated as well. Aside from
these important potential limiting factors, MLCAPE values are
indicated to be 1500-2500 J/kg and should the trend in the CAMs be
wrong, then sufficient shear would be present to support a threat
of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. SPC has an Enhanced
Risk of severe storms for the entire area for the passage of the
line of convection. Have gone with categorical pops today, then
other than a small chance for rain early this evening mostly over
the western Florida panhandle, dry conditions follow for tonight.
Dry conditions are also expected for Tuesday and Tuesday night. A
High Risk of rip currents today will be followed by a moderate
risk tonight, then a low risk for Tuesday. A moderate risk of rip
currents is expected for Tuesday night. /29

Wednesday through Sunday...Most of the extended period will be dry
with southwesterly flow aloft and surface high pressure ridging into
the area from the east. There will be a gradual return for rain
chances by late week, especially over the western half of our
forecast area, as return flow around the western periphery of the
surface high pressure increases low/mid level moisture levels and
another frontal boundary slowly approaches the southeast states from
the west. Best rain chances won't be until Sunday, when we should
have a good chance of showers and storms as the aforementioned
front finally moves across our area. Should be warm mid to late
week, with daytime highs in the mid to upper 80s over most inland
areas Wednesday through Saturday, and expect lower 80s to upper
70s closer to and along the coast. Cooler on Sunday with the
frontal passage and higher PoPs, with highs only in the 70s across
the area on that day. Nighttime low temperatures will be in the
mid 60s to around 60 for the middle part of the week going into
the weekend. A High Risk of rip currents is expected for Wednesday
through Friday. DS/12

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Clusters of thunderstorms will move eastward this morning,
impacting the terminals between 15Z and 20Z. Ahead of these
storms, IFR cigs will persist, along with MVFR visibilities.
Reduced visibilities and gusty winds are expected within any storm
that moves over the terminal. Expect this activity to end by 20Z,
with VFR conditions expected through the late evening hours. Low
clouds are expected once again tonight, with IFR conditions
likely from 04Z through the end of the period. 73/29

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 246 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Light to moderate southwesterly winds become northerly tonight as
a cold front moves through. Areas of dense fog are possible early
this morning. A light southeasterly flow develops on Tuesday. The
onshore flow becomes moderate to occasionally strong for
Wednesday and Thursday. Small craft should exercise caution at
times from early Wednesday morning through Thursday. Winds and
seas will be higher near storms, mainly today. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      81  60  80  67  82  70  83  69 /  90   0  10   0  10   0  10   0
Pensacola   79  64  77  68  78  70  79  70 /  80  20  10   0   0   0   0   0
Destin      75  64  77  68  77  70  78  70 /  80  20  10   0   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   78  55  84  64  86  67  87  65 / 100  10  10   0   0   0  10   0
Waynesboro  81  52  83  66  87  68  87  68 / 100  10  10   0  10  10  20  10
Camden      77  52  81  64  86  67  86  67 / 100  10  10   0  10   0  10   0
Crestview   79  58  83  63  84  66  85  65 /  90  20  10   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for GMZ630>636-
     650-655-670-675.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
901 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

ALZ261>266-FLZ201-MSZ079-311500-
Mobile Coastal AL-Baldwin Coastal AL-Baldwin Central AL-
Baldwin Inland AL-Mobile Central AL-Mobile Inland AL-
Escambia Inland FL-George MS-
901 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN MOBILE...SOUTHWESTERN
BALDWIN...NORTHWESTERN ESCAMBIA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGE COUNTIES
THROUGH 1000 AM CDT...

At 900 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles west of Gulfcrest to 9 miles northwest
of Wade to 5 miles east of Latimer to near Biloxi. Movement was east
at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Grand Bay, Chickasaw, Saraland, Point Clear, Bayou La Batre, Loxley,
Wilmer, Prichard, Daphne, Fort Morgan, Robertsdale, I10 And I65, Bay
Minette, Tanner Williams, I65 And I165, Creola, Semmes, Coden,
Magnolia Springs, and Mobile Regional Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 PM CDT for
southwestern Alabama...northwestern Florida...and southeastern
Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3022 8827 3023 8838 3033 8840 3035 8839
      3038 8841 3039 8841 3038 8840 3074 8841
      3074 8871 3088 8836 3093 8744 3051 8773
      3022 8783
TIME...MOT...LOC 1400Z 272DEG 46KT 3097 8837 3074 8866 3053 8877 3048
8897

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1019 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

ALZ056>058-060-311600-
Conecuh AL-Butler AL-Covington AL-Crenshaw AL-
1019 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EASTERN BUTLER...CRENSHAW...
SOUTHEASTERN CONECUH AND NORTHERN COVINGTON COUNTIES THROUGH 1100 AM
CDT...

At 1019 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Pintlala to 6 miles west of Petrey to 5
miles northwest of Dozier to 8 miles east of Castleberry. Movement
was east at 65 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Gantt, Andalusia, River Falls, Glenwood, Highland Home, Petrey, Opp,
Rutledge, Brantley, McKenzie, Dozier, Luverne, Red Level, and Heath.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 PM CDT for
south central Alabama.

&&

LAT...LON 3153 8620 3124 8619 3126 8704 3151 8685
      3179 8651 3196 8650 3197 8641 3205 8640
      3205 8630 3197 8630 3196 8619 3189 8617
      3179 8620 3179 8615 3166 8615 3162 8618
      3162 8615 3154 8615
TIME...MOT...LOC 1519Z 253DEG 57KT 3215 8640 3185 8633 3154 8645 3132
8689

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

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