Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
624 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 353 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

A vigorous shortwave trof over the southern/central Plains ejects
off to the Great Lakes tonight, with another shortwave trof
likewise advancing across the southern/central Plains then leading
to the formation of an upper trof over the eastern states on
Monday. A surface low associated with this evolution passes well
off to the north of the region and brings a cold front through the
forecast area Monday into Monday evening. A series of shortwaves
look to bring scattered to potential numerous showers and storms
to the area today. MLCAPE values will be 1250-2250 J/kg, and 0-3
km helicity values look to be around 100 m2/s2 with a modest 850
mb jet near 20 knots. This environment could produce some strong
storms. This pattern brings a region of deep layer lift through
the area late tonight into Monday which is anticipated to
manifest as a squall line, although there are some timing
variations in the latest guidance. The HRRR for example is
bringing the line of storms quickly through the area from 5 am to
around noon on Monday while other guidance tends to be a morning
into mid afternoon event. Given that convective events such as
these tend to run faster, am leaning towards the HRRR timing.
There is also the potential for unfavorable upper jet interactions
to lead to the weakening of forcing over much of the area as the
line of convection advances into the area, and some guidance such
as the NAM 3km show this having a dramatic impact. Other than the
concerns about the jet interactions, indicated MLCAPE values along
and ahead of the line of convection look to be 1500-2000 J/kg,
and 0-3 km helicity values will be near 200 m2/s2. SPC has a
slight to enhanced risk of severe storms for the area on Monday,
and with a nod to the HRRR timing and adjacent offices JAN and
BMX, a slight risk also exists late tonight for the
northwesternmost portion of the area.

Will need to monitor for fog development tonight, including the
potential for dense fog mainly over the southern portion of the
area. Mostly dry conditions are expected Tuesday except for
slight chance pops over interior areas, then dry conditions follow
for Wednesday. Mostly dry conditions continue for Thursday, then
slight chance to chance pops are expected west of I-65 for Friday
and Saturday as some modest shortwaves move across the region. A
High Risk of rip currents is in effect through Monday, then a
moderate risk follows for Monday night. A low risk of rip currents
is expected on Tuesday, with a moderate risk for Tuesday night,
then have gone with a high risk for Wednesday and Thursday. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

IFR/MVFR ceilings prevail over the area this morning then improve
to MVFR/VFR ceilings this afternoon. Ceilings then lower to IFR
tonight. Showers and storms gradually develop across the area
today then diminish late this afternoon and end by the early
evening hours. A line of showers and storms is anticipated to
advance into the northwestern portion of the area late tonight.
Southeasterly winds 5 to 10 knots become southerly today with a
similar flow persisting through much of tonight. /29

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 353 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Light to moderate southeasterly winds become southerly tonight
then southwesterly on Monday. Winds become northerly Monday night
as a cold front moves through, then a light southeasterly flow
returns on Tuesday. The onshore flow becomes moderate to
occasionally strong for Wednesday and Thursday. Will need to
monitor for fog development tonight, including potential dense
fog development. Small craft should occasionally exercise caution
mainly from Wednesday into Thursday morning. Winds and seas will
be higher near storms. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      79  66  81  59  80  67  83  69 /  70  20  90  10  10   0   0   0
Pensacola   74  68  77  64  77  69  78  70 /  60  10  80  10  10   0   0   0
Destin      74  67  75  64  77  69  78  70 /  60  20  80  10  10   0   0   0
Evergreen   80  64  80  55  83  64  86  65 /  70  20  90  10  20  10   0   0
Waynesboro  81  63  82  52  82  65  87  68 /  60  60  90  10  20  10  10  10
Camden      78  63  78  52  80  64  86  66 /  70  30  90  10  20  10   0   0
Crestview   78  64  80  58  82  64  84  65 /  60  10  90  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
925 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

ALZ264-266-301515-
Baldwin Coastal AL-Baldwin Central AL-
925 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN BALDWIN COUNTY
THROUGH 1015 AM CDT...

At 925 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Magnolia Springs, or near Foley, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Elberta, Summerdale, Foley, and Magnolia Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3031 8772 3039 8781 3057 8766 3045 8752
TIME...MOT...LOC 1425Z 224DEG 10KT 3039 8773

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

RD