Small Craft Advisory 50, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1156 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1156 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

  - Patchy to areas of fog may develop tonight across the local
    area. Fog could be dense in spots.

  - A strong cold front is expected to sweep through the area on
    Sunday. Dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills are
    expected for Sunday night, and cold weather products will
    likely become necessary.

  - Strong marine winds are expected Sunday afternoon through
    Sunday night in the wake of a cold front. Occasional gusts to
    gale force are possible over our local Gulf waters.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 111 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

An upper-level trough is expected to dig southeastward throughout
the weekend. As it does so, it will help to push a strong cold
front through the area on Sunday. Prior to the passage of the
front, high pressure to our east will keep a light onshore flow
pattern in place through tonight. This will give way to a rather
mild and humid day today, with highs topping out in the upper 60s
to low 70s. The biggest forecast challenge over the next few hours
is the possibility of fog developing. Although the environment is
primed for fog to develop prior to sunrise (dew points increased
into the mid to upper 50s, light winds, and subsidence from the
nearby high), a deck of mid-level clouds is currently streaming
across the local region, helping to prevent fog from developing as
of 1am. Looking at satellite and obs over south central
Mississippi, it seems like the cloud deck is slowly starting to
erode, and underneath these cloud breaks are where obs are
beginning to report dense fog. We will keep an eye on this
throughout the remainder of the overnight hours. As of issuance
time, a Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for coastal counties, as
well as Stone and George counties. If clouds continue to erode and
fog begins to develop over interior counties, then we will likely
need to expand the advisory northward. Although fog should
dissipate after sunrise for most areas, HREF probabilities do
continue to keep a low potential for sea fog to develop and stick
around throughout the day on Saturday over portions of Mobile Bay,
the Mississippi sound, and surrounding areas. Additionally,
another round of fog may develop later tonight/early Sunday
morning prior to the passage of the front, primarily over coastal
counties. Outside of fog potential, rain chances will be on the
increase this afternoon and especially as we get into tonight due
to moisture pooling out ahead of the front and weak forcing. Rain
will likely start off as light, warm air advection showers this
afternoon, transitioning to a broken line of light to moderate
rainfall by the overnight hours. No thunderstorms are expected due
to a lack of instability. We dry out by mid-Sunday morning as the
cold front sweeps through.

We are still anticipating the coldest air of the season for Sunday
night and into Monday as an arctic high pressure system builds in
behind the front. With the front likely moving through during the
morning hours on Sunday, temperatures are expected to drop
throughout the day as strong cold air advection commences. Lows
Sunday night are expected to plummet down to the upper teens north
of Highway 84 to the mid 20s along the immediate coastline.
Factoring in breezy conditions likely continuing through Sunday
night due to a tight pressure gradient, apparent temperatures
(wind chills) could drop to as low as 9-15 degrees north of I-10,
with upper teens potentially reaching the immediate coast. With
temperatures and wind chills this low, we will likely reach our
Cold Weather Advisory criteria for Sunday night across the entire
area, although it should be noted that several areas now are
flirting with Extreme Cold Warning criteria. Regardless of which
product ultimately gets issued, residents and visitors are urged
to make preparations to protect people, plants, pets, and pipes
from this upcoming cold weather.

Very cold temperatures continue through Monday night. Even under
sunny skies, highs on Monday will likely only remain in the upper
40s to around 50 degrees. Lows Monday night will generally be in
the 20s areawide. By Tuesday and into the middle of next week,
flow aloft becomes more zonal and high pressure shifts off to our
east, allowing for temperatures to quickly moderate. In fact,
highs by Thursday may warm back into the low 70s for some spots.
Low rain chances may also return to the area by late week. A low
risk of rip currents will be in place through the period. /96

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1156 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

VFR conditions prevail until around midnight with a mix of low and
mid level clouds, with a few light showers popping up from time to
time along and north of U.S. Highway 84. Very low ceilings and
patchy to areas of fog will develop after midnight ahead a strong
cold approaching from the north. Most ceilings will reach the LIFR
to IFR criteria, with visibilities mostly reaching IFR to MVFR
criteria. A line of showers will accompany the cold front, which
is expected to reach the coast by daybreak Sunday, with northerly
winds sustained around 15-20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots
in the wake of the front. /22

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 111 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

Light onshore flow will persist through tonight. We will have to
monitor for the potential of sea fog developing this morning and
lingering through tonight. A strong cold front will push across
the marine zones on Sunday. Strong northerly to northeasterly
winds are expected to develop behind the front Sunday through
Sunday night. Occasional gusts to gale force may be possible over
the Gulf waters. Winds subside on Monday, becoming a light
easterly wind for Tuesday. /96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      72  48  60  23 /  20  50  30   0
Pensacola   72  53  63  28 /  10  40  30   0
Destin      71  55  64  31 /  10  30  30   0
Evergreen   72  43  56  21 /  20  60  20   0
Waynesboro  69  40  51  19 /  30  70  10   0
Camden      68  40  51  19 /  20  70  10   0
Crestview   73  49  60  22 /  10  40  30   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Sunday night to 9 AM CST
     Monday for ALZ051>060-261>266.

FL...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Sunday night to 9 AM CST
     Monday for FLZ201>206.

MS...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Sunday night to 9 AM CST
     Monday for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight Sunday night to 6 AM CST
     Monday for GMZ630>636.

     Small Craft Advisory from midnight Sunday night to 9 AM CST
     Monday for GMZ650-655-670-675.

&&