Small Craft Advisory 20, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
525 AM CST Mon Mar 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 AM CST Mon Mar 3 2025

VFR conditions expected through the forecast. Northeasterly winds
5 knots or less will become southeasterly at 5 to 10 knots this
afternoon. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 504 AM CST Mon Mar 3 2025/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday night)
Issued at 504 AM CST Mon Mar 3 2025

Synopsis...A frontal boundary stalled across the Gulf will
retreat back towards the coast late tonight in response to
increasing southerly flow in advance of an upper cutoff low
pressure system over the Western High Plains. This warm front will
advance northward across the forecast area Tuesday afternoon and
evening, collocated with an intensifying H925 jet of 50 to 60
knots. The upper level low, initially moving eastward over Kansas
on Tuesday, will lift northeast Tuesday night while taking on a
negative tilt. As this negatively tilted upper trough ejects
northeast, it will spread steepening mid level lapse rates up to
6.5 C/KM. In addition, a coupled but weakening upper level jet
structure should allow upper level divergence and forcing aloft to
become maximized over this same area. The airmass along and south
of the warm front should become moderately unstable due to a
combination of modest surface heating and dewpoints rising into
the mid 60s. This should support MLCAPE values on the order of
500-1000 J/kg over the open warm sector. Shear should also become
enhanced in response the H50 90 knot jet and the 50-60 knot H925
jet overspreading the region. Backed surface winds over the warm
sector, with winds veering and intensifying with height, should
allow for hodographs to become long and curved. This will support
0-3 km SRH values in of 300-400 m2/s2. /22

Severe Thunderstorms...Showers and thunderstorms will develop and
grow increasingly upscale by late Tuesday morning from central
Mississippi southward into southeast Louisiana, where large scale
forcing associated with the trough will be strongest. As more
subtle mid level height falls begin to spread over our area,
thunderstorms may develop in the vicinity of the retreating warm
front and across the warm sector to the southwest. Considering
modest large scale ascent, moderate instability, and SFC-6 km Bulk
Shear of 65-75 knots, there will be the potential for strong to
severe thunderstorms, with the potential for damaging winds and a
few tornadoes, as the line of storms advances east across our area
Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. /22

Wind....As the upper trough moves in a rather tight pressure
gradient will develop between the upper ridge to our east and the
deepening low to our west. This will allow for rather strong low
level flow to develop across the area beginning Tuesday afternoon
and lasting through midnight. 925 mb winds will intensify to 50 to
60 knots just a few thousand feet off the surface. This low level
jet coupled with some level of surface instability will allow for
strong wind gusts to mix down to the surface. As a result, south
winds of 25 to 30 mph and gusts up to 40-45 mph are expected.
Therefore, a Wind Advisory is now in effect from noon Tuesday to
midnight CST Tuesday Night. /22

Coastal Hazards...With the increasing southerly flow and Gale
candidness offshore, wave heights will rapidly increase Tuesday
into Tuesday evening. Expect surf heights to climb to 6 to 10
feet, and we have issued a High Surf Warning from noon Tuesday to
6 AM CST Wednesday. On top of the high surf, life threatening rip
currents will be likely across all area beaches from Tuesday
morning through late Wednesday night. Currently, we are just
coming out of a neap tide meaning that tidal rangers are rather
small across the area. However, given the strong low level flow we
will need to closely monitor northern Mobile Bay for some coastal
flooding. Right now guidance is just below criteria which makes
sense given the neap tide but if trends in winds continue then we
might get close to seeing some minor coastal flooding.
Nonetheless, some overwash may be possible in our prone barrier
islands such as Ft. Pickens, Dauphin Island, Santa Rosa Island.
/22

SHORT and LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 504 AM CST Mon Mar 3 2025

A strong closed upper low that has moved over the Mississippi
River Tuesday into Tuesday night moves off, with post system
northerly flow bringing a cooler, drier airmass to the Southeast.
This airmass is in place when another upper level shortwave moves
over the region Friday night though the weekend, bringing
isentropic upglide showers and a few embedded thunderstorms to the
forecast area. A surface low passes south of the SW
Alabama/western Florida panhandle coast Saturday night, with any
surface based convection over and south of the coast. This batch
of rain is expected to move east of the forecast area by the end
of day Sunday.

Temperatures Ash Wednesday start to see the effects of the influx
of cooler air, with high temperatures ranging from the mid 60s
well northwest of I-65 to low 70s well southeast. Low to mid 60s
are expected Thursday. With a return of southerly flow to the
forecast area, high temperatures Friday rebound into the low to
mid 70s, with mid 70s expected Saturday. Post system northerly air
Sunday will drop high temperatures Sunday into the mid 60s.
Looking at low temperatures, mid 30s to low 40s return for
Wednesday and Thursday nights. Low temperatures see an uptick for
Friday night, into the mid 50s to around 60 as cloud cover
increases with the rain. For Saturday night, low temperatures in
the mid 40s to low 50s are expected as colder air begins to move
south over the forecast area.

A Moderate to High Risk of rip currents is expected Tuesday night
into Thursday as the mid week system passes. The weekend system is
expected to bring a Moderate Risk of rip currents beginning
Saturday night and lasting though the weekend. /16

MARINE...
Issued at 504 AM CST Mon Mar 3 2025

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect from 9 PM this evening
to noon CST Tuesday for southeast winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up
to 30 kt and seas 4 to 7 ft expected. A Gale Watch is now in
effect from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night for south
winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and seas 7 to 10 ft
possible. Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid
possible hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor,
alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and seas. A
frontal boundary approaching from the west passes through the
area late Tuesday night with a strong westerly flow following for
Wednesday. Winds then shift northwesterly Wednesday night as a
cold front moves through the region. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      70  53  75  55  70  40  63  43 /   0   0  20 100   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   66  57  72  61  71  44  62  45 /   0   0   0 100   0   0   0   0
Destin      67  55  72  62  73  45  63  47 /   0   0   0 100   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   70  45  77  54  71  38  63  37 /   0   0  10 100   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  71  47  77  51  66  37  62  38 /  10   0  50  90   0   0   0   0
Camden      69  46  76  53  68  37  59  37 /   0   0  20 100   0   0   0   0
Crestview   70  45  74  56  74  40  65  37 /   0   0   0 100   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Wind Advisory from noon Tuesday to midnight CST Tuesday night
     for ALZ051>060-261>266.

     High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through late
     Wednesday night for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Warning from noon Tuesday to 6 AM CST Wednesday for
     ALZ265-266.

FL...Wind Advisory from noon Tuesday to midnight CST Tuesday night
     for FLZ201>206.

     High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through late
     Wednesday night for FLZ202-204-206.

     High Surf Warning from noon Tuesday to 6 AM CST Wednesday for
     FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Wind Advisory from noon Tuesday to midnight CST Tuesday night
     for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to noon CST Tuesday for
     GMZ630>636.

     Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night for
     GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to noon CST Tuesday for GMZ650-
     655.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Tuesday
     for GMZ670-675.

&&

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