Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
109 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025

Through Monday night...

Upper level shortwave energy that has topped an upper ridge
stretching north over the Plains moves south along the east side of
the ridge Sunday into Sunday night, allowing the ridge to become re-
established Monday. Surface high pressure builds off the Carolina
coast early in the coming week, with a ridge building southwest over
the Southeast. A surface boundary that has stalled over the
Southeast washes out and a more organized southeast to southerly
flow becomes established over the Lower Mississippi River Valley and
western half of the Southeast in response. Even with the onshore
flow, high moisture levels over the Southeast (1.4"-1.6") see a drop
Monday into Monday night (to around 1") as subsidence created drier
air in the mid and upper levels over the Gulf moves inland over the
Lower Mississippi River Valley. Already low rain chances Sunday
(slight chance east of the Tombigbee River) decrease even further
Monday as a result. Low level moisture remains high enough for
patchy overnight fog to develop the next few days, though.

Subsidence from the upper ridge will keep temperatures well above
seasonal norms through the Near Term. High temperatures in the mid
to upper 80s well inland from the coast, low to mid 80s closer to
the coast are expected Sunday and Monday. Low temperatures in the
low to mid 60s are expected north of I-10, mid to upper south to the
coast are expected Sunday and Monday nights.

A Moderate Risk of Rip Currents today quickly settles to Low as
organized onshore flow eases. /16

Tuesday through Saturday...

An upper ridge pivots eastward over the southeast states through
Wednesday, leading to dry and continued well above normal
temperatures. The influence of the ridge lessens its grip the
second half of the work week as it shifts east off the southeast
US coast. Meanwhile, an upper level storm system approaches the
lower MS River Valley Thursday. With this feature's eastward
advance, an attendant cold front settles to the coast by later in
the day Friday. An increase in cloud cover and rain chances expected
Thursday and Friday. The front pushes south Saturday and brings a
return to drier weather. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025

VFR conditions will prevail across nearly all of the area for the
remainder of the day and into mid evening, with the exception
being near isolated showers and storms late this afternoon and
early this evening where brief IFR ceilings and vsby's could
occur. Later tonight, patchy fog will again develop across parts
of the region, possibly reducing ceilings and vsby to IFR or even
briefly LIFR at times. The fog should lift after sunrise Monday
morning with VFR conditions then expected through 18Z. Surface
winds will be light and somewhat variable today and tonight, then
more predominately light southeasterly on Monday. DS/12

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 351 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025

A light and variable, diurnally driven flow is expected into the
coming week. As onshore flow becomes established Tuesday and remains
so through the rest of the week, winds remain light to at times
moderate, with a slow increase in waves as swell from the Gulf
increases.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      65  86  65  86  66  85  68  83 /  10   0   0   0   0   0  10  20
Pensacola   67  83  68  81  70  81  70  81 /  10  10   0   0   0   0   0  10
Destin      69  83  70  82  71  82  70  82 /   0  10   0  10   0  10   0  10
Evergreen   63  90  62  88  63  89  63  86 /  10  20   0  10   0  10   0  20
Waynesboro  63  89  62  89  63  89  65  86 /  10  10   0  10   0  10  10  50
Camden      63  88  63  88  63  88  65  85 /  10  20   0  10   0  10   0  30
Crestview   62  89  62  87  63  87  63  85 /  10  10   0  10   0  10   0  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

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