Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
342 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

...New Discussion, Marine...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

Today through Monday...Southwesterly flow aloft maintains over our
area through Monday as the positively tilted upper trough over the
plains states becomes more neutral and moves into the
southeastern states. As this upper trough slides slowly east, the
associated surface front which is currently moving into western MS
will drift slowly east toward and then across our area today into
the early evening hours. A line of showers and thunderstorms
currently just ahead of the front is moving east across western
and central MS, and HighRes Models (which seem to have a fairly
good handle on the storms) indicate the the main line of storms
could reach our western MS counties by around 6 AM. While there is
ample instability and low level shear in place across the region,
models are somewhat consistent in indicating that the low level
jet that has allowed for a number of the storms along the line to
be severe late Saturday evening into early this morning will be
weakening and lifting to the north of our area today (at least
during the morning hours). There may be a brief increase in the
low level jet across the area this afternoon. With this, the line
may weaken somewhat as it approaches our area (there are a few
signs of this potential trend on current radar imagery), but a few
strong to severe storms will be possible across our area from
around daybreak and then through the day as the line moves
eastward. Sufficient mid-level flow parallel to the surface
boundary should maintain convective organization, primarily linear
convection but with perhaps a few embedded supercells. Damaging
wind would be the main threat, but a few brief tornadoes along the
line and in isolated cells out in front of the line cannot be
ruled out. It is possible a corridor of greater wind/tornado
potential could develop later today if the secondary low level jet
materializes coincident with surface heating and instability by
early this afternoon. So while there is a severe threat (SPC
maintains the SLIGHT Risk across our entire area, the overall
threat will be limited by poor mid-level lapse rates as well as
the potential for extensive cloud cover prior to the arrival of
the storms. Although the threat is on the lower end, a Tornado
Watch is now in effect for portions of interior southeast MS and
portions of interior southwest AL until 10 AM this morning as some
of the storms have produced brief, confirmed tornadoes over the
past few hours over central portions of MS.

The front will be moving rather slowly east across our area today
into this evening, and an upper level shortwave approaching the
region from the west will move across the area in the wake of the
front tonight. Heavy rainfall will be possible with the initial
line of thunderstorms associated with the front today, and then
continued rains (locally heavy at times) will continue through
tonight. Initially the heavy rains this morning will be over our
western zones, but the rainfall will be of a more prolonged
duration over the eastern portions of our area this afternoon
through tonight (and sometimes heavy) and that is where our
highest rainfall total are expected. Our latest Storm Total QPF
indicates 3-4 inches possible today through early Monday over our
interior south-central AL counties. Most of the heavies rainfall
will be north of the areas that got significant rainfalls last
week, so for no we have issued no Flash Flood Watch for any of our
area, but it is possible that depending on how long the heavier
rainfall persists over our northeastern counties through tonight,
that a Flash Flood Watch may be needed for that area later today.
We will continue to monitor.

In addition to everything noted above, we will continue to have
several ongoing and potential coastal hazards into Monday. We
expect dangerous beach conditions to continue with high surf and
a high risk of rip currents to continue into Monday afternoon.
There is also a potential for some minor coastal along northern
portions of Mobile Bay (US 90/98 Causeway area) around the time of
high tide this afternoon and a Coastal Flood Advisory for that
area from 2 PM this afternoon until 10 PM this evening. DS/12

Monday Night Through Saturday night...The axis of the upper-level
trough pushes across the local area on Tuesday. In its wake, a
northwesterly flow pattern aloft will be in place through
Thursday. At the surface, high pressure builds into the area from
the west, allowing for a cooler, drier airmass to filter into the
region. Lows Monday and Tuesday nights will dip into the low to
mid 40s across the area, although a few upper 30s cannot be ruled
out inland. Highs on Tuesday will top out in the upper 60s to low
70s. High pressure will push to our east by Wednesday night,
causing winds to shift from northerly to southerly. This will give
way to brief warming trend, with highs reaching the upper 70s to
around 80 by Thursday and lows Thursday night in the 50s. By
Friday, a second upper trough quickly dives southeastwards,
helping to bring another front through the area. This will help to
bring a reinforcing shot of cooler, drier air into the region.
Highs on Friday and Saturday will be in the low to mid 70s, and
lows will drop into the mid to upper 40s. No rain is anticipated
through the period, with no hazards expected at this time.
/96

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

Low-end MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected to linger across much
of the local area through the overnight hours. By late morning,
MVFR ceilings should prevail through the day. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to slowly push from west to east
throughout the day today as a cold front moves through the local
region. A few strong to severe storms, capable of producing
gusty, erratic winds cannot be ruled out. Brief reductions in
visibility will occur in some of the heavier activity. Outside of
storms, breezy southerly winds will continue through the afternoon
hours, with gusts potentially reaching up to 25 to 30 knots in
spots. Once the front passes during the evening hours, winds will
turn northwesterly and weaken to around 5 to 10 knots. /96

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

A moderate to strong onshore flow continues through Sunday evening.
A cold front will move across the marine area Sunday night with a
moderate to occasionally strong offshore flow developing in its
wake for early next week, with a lighter offshore flow expected by
mid to late week. Winds will be near SCA levels (20 to 25 knots),
but the main driver for the SCA over Gulf waters will continue to
be seas up to 7 feet which will continue through late Sunday
evening. Seas gradually subside through midweek as winds diminish.
Hazardous conditions for small craft will continue through at
least Sunday evening, but gradually improve into the early part of
the week. DS/12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      81  54  64  43  71  43  73  49 /  90  90  60   0   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   79  59  65  48  70  48  70  53 /  70  90  90   0   0   0   0   0
Destin      78  62  69  51  71  49  70  55 /  40  80 100  10   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   81  53  64  41  69  39  72  43 /  90  90  80   0   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  77  50  61  39  69  40  73  45 / 100  50  30   0   0   0   0   0
Camden      77  51  59  41  67  38  71  44 / 100  70  60   0   0   0   0   0
Crestview   81  56  66  43  71  40  74  44 /  50  90  90  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT
     this evening for ALZ263-264.

     High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory until 1 PM CDT Monday for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Advisory until 1 PM CDT Monday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ630>632-
     650-655-670-675.

&&

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