Severe Thunderstorm Warning 159, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
520 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 513 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

 - A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for most of the marine
   area Sunday afternoon through Monday night with the potential
   for occasional gusts to gale force over the open Gulf waters.

 - The first freeze of the season is likely for most of the
   forecast area Monday night into Tuesday morning as lows fall
   into the middle 20's to lower 30's.

 - Dangerous fire weather conditions are possible on Monday across
   the entire area with the ongoing drought, very dry weather, and
   forecast strong winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1228 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

An anomalously strong longwave trough is expected to dig into the
eastern US over the next 24 to 48 hours. This will help to push a
potent cold front through the local area this afternoon, allowing
for the first arctic airmass of the season to filter through the
Deep South and into the Gulf. For the remainder of the overnight and
into the morning hours, weak moisture pooling, limited forcing,
and some elevated instability may allow for a few showers or
possibly a thunderstorm, to develop ahead of the front (rain
chances around 20-30%). Once the front passes, rain chances drop
to zero as much colder and drier air will advect in from the
northwest. Given the strong gradient, winds behind the front will
also be on the increase, with gusts this afternoon potentially as
high as 25- 30mph in spots. Highs today will range from the upper
60s to low 70s west of I-65 to the mid to upper 70s for areas
east, but with the progression of the front, these highs will
likely occur during the mid to late morning hours, with temps
lowering throughout the afternoon.

Bitter cold temperatures/wind chills are expected across the area
from Sunday night through Tuesday night. Lows Sunday night will
likely drop into the 30s areawide, with maybe a few locations along
the immediate coast staying in the low 40s. Winds will remain rather
gusty Sunday night, which should keep our area just above the
freezing mark (with the exception of a few localized areas in our
far northern counties). However, factoring in the wind chill, it
will likely feel like the mid to upper 20s for most of the area,
and low 30s along the coast. For Monday, even under sunny skies,
the continued gusty winds/strong cold air advection will likely
keep highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. By Monday evening and into
Monday night, winds will finally begin to relax as high pressure
moves overhead. Light winds, dry conditions, and clear skies, will
lead to efficient radiational cooling, likely causing
temperatures to plummet into the 20s for areas north of I-10. Even
areas south of I-10 may also drop to below freezing. In fact, NBM
probabilities for lows less than 32 degrees have increased even
further during the latest run, ranging now from 50-70% along the
coast. Therefore, it is looking increasingly likely that a Freeze
Watch will need to be issued for the entire CWA in the next
forecast package. Daily record lows are also in jeopardy of being
broken at our local climate sites (KMOB record: 31 degrees; KPNS
record: 33 degrees), with the NBM giving a greater than 75%
probability of each location breaking their respective records.
Additionally, although winds are expected to be light Monday
night, there may be enough of a wind chill factor to support the
need for a Cold Weather Advisory for apparent temperatures
dropping into the upper teens to low 20s. Reiterating what the
previous shift stated, given the relatively abrupt and early
nature of this cold compared to normal, as well as the fact that
we were recently in the 70s and 80s, we are not yet acclimated to
this degree of cold weather, which could lead to a more dangerous
risk for vulnerable communities. We urge residents and visitors to
make preparations to protect people, plants, pets, and pipes from
this cold weather.

After one more day of chilly temperatures on Tuesday, with highs in
the 50s and lows ranging from the mid 30s inland to the low 40s
along the coast, the high will shift to our east, allowing for winds
to turn onshore. Although we remain dry through the remainder of the
extended period, temperatures will rise back to above seasonal
norms. Highs for late week will top out in the low to mid 70s and
lows will range from the mid 40s inland to mid 50s along the coast.
A Low Risk of rip currents remains in place through the period. /96

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 513 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

A stratus deck is bringing IFR/LIFT CIGs to most of the forecast
area at 11z. A cold front has started to move across the forecast
area and is expected to be south of the coast by this afternoon,
moving any residual cloud currently over the forecast south..
Strong northerly winds around 15 knots and gusty today are
expected to ease to around 10 to 15 knots tonight.
/16

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1228 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Moderate southwesterly to westerly winds this morning will become
a strong northwesterly flow by the late afternoon hours in the
wake of a strong cold front and will persist through Monday
night. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from this afternoon
through Monday night for all local marine zones. Occasional gusts
to gale force are possible over the open Gulf waters Sunday night
into Monday morning. Winds will then relax on Tuesday and become
a light onshore flow by Wednesday. /96

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1228 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Given our longstanding drought conditions across the area and a
rather dry frontal passage on Sunday, we have increasing concerns
for dangerous burning conditions across the local area on Monday.
Winds increasing to 15 to 20 mph with gusts nearing 30 mph during
the day on Monday coupled with afternoon relative humidity values
in the low to mid 20s will likely result in rather dangerous fire
conditions. A Red Flag Warning may become necessary given the dry
fuels across the area. Winds will subside on Tuesday; however,
continued dry conditions could remain across the area leading to
increased fire danger. /BB-8 /96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      73  37  51  28 /  20   0   0   0
Pensacola   76  41  53  32 /  20   0   0   0
Destin      78  43  55  34 /  20   0   0   0
Evergreen   74  34  49  22 /  20   0   0   0
Waynesboro  68  33  48  23 /   0   0   0   0
Camden      69  33  46  22 /  10   0   0   0
Crestview   78  37  51  23 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to midnight CST
     Monday night for GMZ630>636.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST
     Tuesday for GMZ650-655-670-675.

&&