Severe Thunderstorm Warning 154, NWS Mobile, AL

616 
WWUS54 KMOB 162031
SVSMOB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
331 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

ALC097-162041-
/O.CAN.KMOB.SV.W.0154.000000T0000Z-250816T2045Z/
Mobile AL-
331 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN MOBILE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3033 8840 3034 8840 3035 8839 3037 8840
      3038 8841 3039 8841 3038 8840 3051 8840
      3056 8823 3036 8810 3028 8839
TIME...MOT...LOC 2027Z 342DEG 4KT 3044 8830 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
133 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

...New Aviation, Discussion, Marine...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 132 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

An upper-level ridge building over the central US will remain in
place through at least Tuesday before retreating westward by
midweek. For our area, winds aloft this morning have transitioned
to a more northerly to northeasterly flow pattern, allowing for
some slightly drier air to filter into the eastern half of the
local area (PWATs around 1.7 inches over the eastern half of the
area vs 2.1 inches over the western half). Over the coming days,
the drier air will filter through the remainder of the area as
this overall pattern continues through midweek. Afternoon rain
chances this weekend will generally range from 20-40%, lowering
even further as we get to Tuesday and Wednesday. Although
convective coverage is lower, the drier air aloft could allow for
a couple stronger storms, capable of producing gusty winds and/or
small hail, to develop. The pattern begins to transition back to a
wetter pattern by late week as a weak upper trough digs into the
local area. This will allow for deep-layer flow to shift back to a
general southwesterly flow pattern, helping to bring better
moisture back into the region.

With the drier air in place and lower convective coverage expected,
highs through Wednesday will rise into the low to mid 90s (a few
interior locations could reach the upper 90s). The good news though
is that heat indices will likely remain below Heat Advisory criteria
as the drier air should allow our afternoon dew points to mix down
into the upper 60s to low 70. With moisture returning on Thursday,
temperatures will trend slightly lower for the remainder of the
period, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Lows through the
period will generally remain in the low to mid 70s. A Low Risk of
rip currents remain in place through the period. /96

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

Isolated to possibly scattered convection will develop this
afternoon, with the better coverage anticipated from southeast
Mississippi and extreme southwest Alabama, then convection
dissipates by the early evening. MVFR conditions will accompany the
stronger showers and storms, and some patchy late night fog is
possible, but otherwise VFR conditions prevail through Sunday
morning. Northerly winds around 5 knots are expected this afternoon,
except for becoming west to southwest near the coast, then winds
become light and variable this evening. A northeasterly flow around
5 knots develops Sunday morning. /29

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 132 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

A diurnal flow pattern is anticipated through the middle
of next week, with an offshore flow developing at night and becoming
onshore in the afternoon hours. Otherwise, no impacts are expected
other than locally higher winds and seas possible near
thunderstorms. /96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      75  94  73  93  73  93  73  94 /  10  30  10  40  10  20  10  20
Pensacola   77  92  75  91  76  92  76  92 /  10  30  20  30  10  20   0  10
Destin      78  90  77  90  78  91  78  92 /  20  40  20  30  10  20  10  10
Evergreen   73  95  72  95  72  96  72  96 /  10  30  10  20  10  10  10  20
Waynesboro  74  96  73  96  72  96  72  96 /  10  30  10  20  10  10  10  20
Camden      73  94  72  96  73  96  73  95 /   0  20  10  10   0  10  10  20
Crestview   73  93  72  93  72  95  72  95 /  10  40  10  30   0  20   0  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ052-261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
245 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

ALZ263-265-162030-
Mobile Coastal AL-Mobile Central AL-
245 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN MOBILE COUNTY
THROUGH 330 PM CDT...

At 245 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Grand Bay, moving south at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Grand Bay, Bayou La Batre, and Coden.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3033 8840 3034 8840 3035 8839 3037 8840
      3038 8841 3039 8841 3038 8840 3050 8840
      3051 8827 3028 8820 3027 8839
TIME...MOT...LOC 1945Z 355DEG 5KT 3044 8837

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH