Severe Thunderstorm Warning 151, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
615 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 123 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

The main story continues to be the prolonged heat across the area.
We'll see one more day of heat indices rising into the 105 to 110
degree range, before the temps begin to drop (though only a couple
of degrees). Upper ridging will remained anchored to our south,
while a ridge builds over the Western CONUS. A weak trough will move
through the Great Lakes, dampening the ridge somewhat over the area.
Meanwhile, surface high pressure to our south will keep a southerly
flow across the region, keeping a moist airmass in place. Given the
weakening ridge, thunderstorm coverage may be a bit more today than
we saw yesterday, especially given the current isolated to scattered
storms moving across the region. Despite the storms, temperatures
are expected to climb into the mid to upper 90s once again today.
While we may mix a bit this afternoon, given the fact that dewpoints
are currently in the mid to upper 70s across most of the area, we
should still see those heat indices reach heat advisory criteria.
Regardless, low temperatures have remained in the upper 70s,
providing little relief from the heat. The prolonged nature of these
conditions will exacerbate any heat related illnesses.

As mentioned above, we'll start to see a downward trend in
temperatures as we head into the weekend. Upper ridging will remain
to our south, while the aforementioned tough digs into the TN
Valley. This may provide a greater coverage of thunderstorms on
Thursday, as a weak frontal boundary moves into northern Alabama.
The axis of the trough will move off the East Coast and generally
remain in place through the weekend with northerly flow persisting
over the local area. The combination of drier air and a greater
coverage of storms will keep temps in the upper 80s to lower 90s by
the weekend. Uncertainty is high with regard to how far south the
front reaches, though guidance is fairly consistent on the boundary
reaching our area and lingering during the first part of the new
work week. Thus, scattered to numerous PoPs were maintained through
the forecast package. /73

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

Forecast confidence is low regarding thunderstorms this morning.
Guidance and trends suggest this activity will diminish within the
hour; however, kept prevailing TSRA for KMOB and KBFM through 14Z
to account for redevelopment. After a break in thunderstorms,
additional development is expected this afternoon. Due to the low
confidence, have kept the PROB30 group, though amendments may
become necessary if the coverage increases and/or the timing is
quicker than currently forecast. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions
to prevail. /73

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 121 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

A light to moderate west to southwesterly flow will continue
through the end of the week. Seas will remain generally 2 feet or
less. /73

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      94  77  93  77  94  75  92  74 /  60  30  60  20  60  30  70  40
Pensacola   92  80  92  80  93  79  92  76 /  60  30  60  20  60  40  70  60
Destin      92  81  92  82  92  80  92  78 /  60  20  50  20  60  40  70  70
Evergreen   96  75  95  75  95  72  93  72 /  60  30  60  20  60  30  70  40
Waynesboro  96  74  94  74  95  72  92  70 /  60  40  60  20  60  30  60  30
Camden      95  75  93  75  94  73  92  72 /  60  30  60  20  60  30  60  30
Crestview   93  75  93  75  94  74  93  73 /  60  20  60  20  60  30  70  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
811 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

ALZ263-MSZ079-301400-
Mobile Central AL-George MS-
811 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL MOBILE AND
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGE COUNTIES THROUGH 900 AM CDT...

At 811 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles southwest of Wilmer, or 13 miles southeast of Lucedale, moving
south at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Tanner Williams.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3056 8841 3074 8841 3074 8854 3084 8849
      3084 8842 3080 8841 3080 8834 3055 8831
TIME...MOT...LOC 1311Z 006DEG 9KT 3079 8844

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH