River Flood Warning 31, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
700 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025

Now through Tuesday...
An active pattern should continue at least through today and
Monday as our loitering low lingers over the southeast. We will
remain on the soggy east side of this upper level low likely
centered over Louisiana. This will continue to stream moisture
northward today across the area with southerly winds aloft. The
first wave of storms today will likely be focused across south
central Alabama and into the northwestern Florida Panhandle.
Currently radar has a confluence band across Walton county Florida
extending northward. Guidance seems to be consistent in slowly
pushing this band westward with time and expand in coverage. The
biggest issue with these storms will be the potential for training
which may result in localized flash flooding. This will be
especially true across areas that have seen flooding over the past
couple of days. By the afternoon, scattered to numerous storms
will develop mainly north of I-10 as instability increases.
Overall the severe threat seems low on these storms, however;
rather long hodographs may support some organized cells and
potentially a few transient supercells capable of some small hail.
Heavy rainfall will also continue to be an issue as these storms
begin to train over the same areas.

The good news is by Monday, things look to eventually calm down a
little as dry air begins to wrap around the upper low and we move
out of the more favorable region. Scattered showers are still
expected on Monday; however, the overall intensity and coverage
should be on the downtrend. By Tuesday, the upper low will have
moved into a more favorable location for drier air finally clearing
things out across the area. Throughout this period, surface winds
should remain southerly allowing for a high risk of rip currents to
continue. BB-8

Wednesday through Sunday....
High pressure will build into the area by Wednesday and last
through the remainder of the week. This area of high pressure will
allow for drier conditions to prevail but also usher in our first
real taste of summer. Mainly looking at a temperatures forecast
through the remainder of the work week and into next weekend.
Expect highs to steadily climb into the 90s by Saturday and with
dewpoints in the 70s we will likely see heat indices in the upper
90s. Given this will be our first stretch of hot weather, it will
probably feel worse as we are not quite acclimated to our future
sweat overlords that will soon takeover. Be sure to take proper
precautions to protect yourself if you are outdoors by the end of
the week. BB-8

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 653 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025

VFR conditions should generally prevail through the period.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop over the course of the day. Highest coverage will be over
our eastern-most zones this morning, before spreading inland this
afternoon. Expect temporary reductions in visibilities and
ceilings with some of the heavier activity. Light southerly to
southeasterly winds of around 5 to 10 knots is expected today,
becoming more light and variable tonight. /96

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025

In the wake of a surface low moving onshore, winds and seas
will continue to gradually relaxed today. A light to moderate
southerly to southwesterly flow prevails through the middle of next
week. BB-8

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      80  61  79  61  84  67  85  69 /  40  40  50  10  10   0   0   0
Pensacola   80  66  80  66  82  72  83  73 /  30  50  60  20  20   0   0   0
Destin      79  69  80  68  81  72  83  74 /  60  50  60  30  20   0   0   0
Evergreen   81  61  81  59  84  62  88  65 /  70  40  40  10  40   0   0   0
Waynesboro  79  58  79  58  83  62  88  64 /  60  30  40   0  20   0   0   0
Camden      79  61  79  60  81  62  88  66 /  80  50  40  10  40   0   0   0
Crestview   80  62  82  60  84  63  88  66 /  60  50  60  20  30   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

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