Flash Flood Warning 28, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
206 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

...New Aviation, Discussion, Marine...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

The forecast area remains situated between a weak inverted trough
over the central Gulf, a trough moving into the Mississippi Valley,
and the subtropical ridge over FL. Deep southerly flow is keeping a
plume of moisture filtering into the area, which is aiding in
showers lifting northward across portions of the area. Expect this
trend to continue through the predawn hours, as a weak low develops
over the local area and surface convergence remains along the coast.
While there may be some brief pockets of heavy rain, the showers
have been moving quickly enough to limit flooding. However, we'll
have to watch for any training showers, especially across areas
south of I-10 where soil moisture is high due to previous rainfall.

The trough currently moving into the Mississippi Valley will move
eastward today, while the trough/low currently impacting the area
becomes absorbed in the longer wave trough. The axis of this
trough will push east of the area by this afternoon, with flow
aloft becoming more zonal. Drier air filtering into the region
from the westerly flow aloft will bring an end to the more
numerous/widespread showers, as we return to a more summer like
pattern. Meanwhile, a ridge of high pressure will build westward
along the Gulf Coast, with high pressure settling into the area
for the latter half of the work week. The combination of drier air
aloft, upper level height rises, and plentiful sunshine will
bring a return to near/slightly above normal temps as highs warm
into the mid to upper 90s by the weekend. Heat indices will be in
the triple digits, though enough mixing in the afternoon should
keep heat indices for reaching/exceeding Heat Advisory criteria.
Otherwise, expect diurnally driven convection each afternoon.

Beach forecast: An increase in southerly surface winds has
increased the risk for rip currents along the coast. Therefore, a
High Risk of Rip Currents is currently in effect through this
evening. /73

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 206 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

VFR conditions are in place for much of the local area at issuance
time. The only exception is over coastal Alabama, where showers
continue to develop, helping to being ceilings and, at times,
visibilities down to MVFR. Expect these MVFR to potentially IFR
conditions to spread across the area during the remainder of the
overnight hours. Flight categories should begin to improve by the
late morning, with VFR conditions returning by the mid to late
afternoon hours. Winds will generally by light out of the south
through the period. /96

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 206 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

A moderate southwesterly flow pattern will continue through
tonight. By Thursday and into the weekend, a general light to
occasionally moderate diurnal pattern becomes established.
Offshore flow at night will shift to onshore flow by the
afternoon hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      87  75  92  74  94  75  94  75 /  70  30  50  10  40  10  40  20
Pensacola   88  78  91  78  92  78  93  77 /  80  30  40  10  30  10  30  20
Destin      87  79  90  79  91  79  91  78 /  80  30  30  10  20  10  30  20
Evergreen   87  73  93  73  94  73  96  73 /  70  20  50  20  30  10  30  20
Waynesboro  89  73  94  72  94  72  96  73 /  70  30  60  20  40  20  30  20
Camden      87  73  93  74  93  74  95  73 /  70  20  50  20  30  10  30  10
Crestview   87  74  92  74  94  74  94  73 /  80  20  50  10  40  10  40  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

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