Flash Flood Warning 27, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
225 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

...New Discussion, Marine...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 114 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

A rather soggy start to the week on tap before the dog days of
summer return over the weekend. The main driver for the more
active weather will be an inverted trough/easterly wave over
Florida that will quickly track west across the northern Gulf.
This disturbance will bring an increase in moisture throughout
this afternoon and into Tuesday before departing Wednesday. As
PWATS climb to over 2 inches once again, rain chances will follow
as numerous to widespread showers and storms are expected late
this evening and into the day on Wednesday. Given the high
moisture value and overall weak steering flow, heavy rainfall
will be the greatest concern as storms could quickly produce a
couple of inches in an hour. HREF PMMs for the next 24 hours are
in the widespread 2 to 4 inch range mainly along the Florida
Panhandle with some areas hinting at localized 5 to 7 inches and
max totals could reach locally double if storms can stick around
long enough. Given the PWAT situation and these potentials, there
is some concerns for Flash Flooding across the Florida panhandle
likely beginning late tonight into Tuesday morning. Flooding
concerns will likely be confined to urban poor drainage areas but
if the wrong spot ends up with the heavier amounts then some more
serious flooding can certainly occur. We will have to keep a close
eye overnight on trends and see how the forecast evolves.
Confidence and duration is not there at this time for a watch.

Rain chances should begin to taper off as the system tracks west
and upper level ridging builds back into the area by Wednesday
into Thursday bringing a drier but hotter weekend. Expect a more
summertime pattern to setup with your standard scattered afternoon
thunderstorms along the seabreeze and rather uncomfortable
temperatures and humidity. The big concern will likely be
heat as temperatures climb into the mid 90s with dewpoints in the
70s. Heat indices will climb back into the low 100s making for a
rather sticky weekend. BB-8

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

The best chances for showers and storms will be along and east of
I-65 this afternoon, then coverage diminishes this evening.
Showers and storms increase in coverage near the coast late
tonight into the early morning hours then begin to spread inland
Tuesday morning, mostly along and east of I-65. IFR to MVFR
conditions will be near and with the showers and storms, and while
VFR conditions tend to prevail outside of convection through this
evening, an IFR ceiling is anticipated to develop late tonight
into Tuesday morning along and east of I-65. Northeast to
southeast winds 5-10 knots today decrease to a light east to
southeast flow this evening, then a southeasterly flow at 5-10
knots develops Tuesday morning. /29

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 114 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

A light to moderate easterly flow today will turn more southerly
by tonight as a weak disturbance moves across the northern Gulf.
Increased showers and storms will be expected across the marine
zones through Wednesday before returning to a more traditional
summertime pattern by the weekend. BB-8

BB-8

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      74  86  74  89  75  91  75  94 /  50  80  40  70  20  50  10  40
Pensacola   77  86  78  90  78  90  78  92 /  70  80  40  60  20  50  10  40
Destin      77  88  79  90  79  90  79  92 /  80  80  40  60  20  50  10  30
Evergreen   73  86  72  90  72  93  74  94 /  50  80  30  70  20  50  10  30
Waynesboro  73  87  72  89  72  92  73  94 /  30  70  30  70  10  50  10  30
Camden      73  86  73  89  72  90  74  92 /  30  70  30  70  20  50  10  30
Crestview   74  86  73  90  73  91  74  93 /  70  80  30  70  10  50  10  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
413 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

ALZ261-263-MSZ079-112200-
Mobile Inland AL-Mobile Central AL-George MS-
413 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL MOBILE AND
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGE COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM CDT...

At 411 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking an outflow over Midtown
Mobile from a strong thunderstorm over Mobile Bay, moving northwest
at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Midtown Mobile, Downtown Mobile, Prichard, Chickasaw, Semmes, Tanner
Williams, I65 And I165, I65 And AL 158, I10 And I65, Mobile Regional
Airport, and Wilmer.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3070 8841 3074 8841 3074 8851 3097 8834
      3075 8798 3074 8800 3071 8799 3074 8797
      3072 8798 3069 8796 3071 8795 3072 8794
      3071 8792 3053 8803
TIME...MOT...LOC 2111Z 121DEG 19KT 3068 8810

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

SAM