Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
117 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

...New Discussion, Marine...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 117 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

A weak upper low centered just off the Louisiana coast breaks down
to a weak upper trof before moving into eastern Texas Tuesday
night. An upper ridge meanwhile builds across the southeast
states then gradually weakens Wednesday into Friday as an upper
trof slowly progresses across the interior eastern states. A
surface ridge remains in place over the northern Gulf through the
week, and into the weekend as well, and promotes a light
southwesterly flow over the forecast area. Am anticipating a
diurnal convective cycle to continue, with a trend towards
increasing coverage through Friday as the upper ridge building
into the area proves temporary and will be followed by increasing
deep layer moisture and a series of shortwaves moving across the
area. Will have chance pops on Tuesday trending to likely to
categorical pops by Friday. Likely pops follow for Saturday, then
expect good chance to likely pops for Sunday and Monday as
abundant deep layer moisture remains in place along with a series
of gradually weaker shortwaves set to move across the area. Will
need to monitor for heat index concerns from Thursday through
Monday for heat index values of mostly 102-107, though some
locations look to reach 109 on Sunday and Monday, exceeding Heat
Advisory criteria of 108. Some strong storms will be possible each
day with gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. A low risk of
rip currents is anticipated through Friday. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast with some
isolated showers and thunderstorms developing along and north of
I-10 this afternoon. Some localized MVFR to IFR conditions will be
possible within the vicinity of any thunderstorms. Winds will be
light out of the south becoming variable overnight with VFR
conditions. BB-8

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 117 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

No impacts anticipated other than higher winds and seas
near storms. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      73  92  73  93  74  92  74  92 /  10  30  10  60  30  70  30  80
Pensacola   77  92  77  92  77  92  78  91 /  10  30  10  50  30  60  30  70
Destin      79  92  80  92  80  92  80  92 /  10  30  20  50  30  60  30  60
Evergreen   72  94  72  95  72  93  73  92 /  10  30  10  50  20  60  30  80
Waynesboro  71  94  72  93  71  93  72  93 /  20  30  10  60  20  70  20  70
Camden      73  93  73  93  72  91  72  91 /  10  30  10  50  30  70  30  70
Crestview   72  94  73  94  73  93  73  92 /  10  40  10  60  20  70  20  80

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
244 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

ALZ263-072030-
Mobile Central AL-
244 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL MOBILE COUNTY THROUGH
330 PM CDT...

At 243 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mobile Regional Airport, or near Midtown Mobile. This storm was
nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Midtown Mobile, Tillmans Corner, Tanner Williams, I10 And I65, and
Mobile Regional Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3072 8838 3080 8821 3080 8812 3064 8806
      3057 8822
TIME...MOT...LOC 1943Z 148DEG 3KT 3067 8819

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Black