Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
238 PM EDT Wed Aug 6 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Wed Aug 6 2025

- Highest rain chances (up to 60-70%) will be across the interior
  late this afternoon and evening. A few stronger storms will
  likely result, producing strong wind gusts to 45-55 mph,
  frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall of 2-4 inches.

- Shower and storm chances will be above normal (up to 60-80%)
  from late week into the weekend, with greatest coverage in the
  afternoon and evening.

- The higher rain chances will offer some respite from the heat,
  but also continue a risk of strong storms capable of gusty
  winds, deadly lightning, and locally heavy rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Wed Aug 6 2025

Currently-Tonight...Convective development a little slow to start
again this afternoon as the east coast sea breeze moves inland.
However, a moist airmass remains across the area, with 15Z XMR
sounding showing PW values around 2.1 inches. Therefore, still
expecting isolated to scattered showers and storms to develop
through mid to late afternoon, becoming scattered to numerous near
to west of Orlando metro area late day/early evening, as boundaries
collide over the interior. DCAPE values not quite as high as
yesterday, but are still around 800-1000 J/kg, which will still
support some stronger storms capable of producing strong gusts up to
45-55 mph and frequent lightning. However, can't completely rule out
an isolated severe storm or two, producing locally damaging wind
gusts up to 60 mph. Additionally, there will be a very low potential
for funnel clouds or a brief tornado given all the boundary
interactions. Weak steering winds will again lead to slow and
variable storm motion, with locally heavy rainfall up to 2-4 inches
and minor flooding also a concern. Convection will gradually
diminish through late evening with some areas of light debris cloud
rainfall persisting.

Mostly dry conditions then forecast overnight, but an approaching
wave currently over the Bahamas, and a weak onshore flow may
transport a few showers or an isolated storm or two onshore through
late tonight. Remaining warm with lows in the mid to upper 70s most
locations.

Thursday-Friday...Weak frontal boundary across north Florida is
forecast to drop slowly southward into north central FL into late
week. Moisture will continue to increase with PW values around 2.0-
2.2 inches. The presence of this boundary and deeper moisture will
lead to above normal shower and storm coverage, with rain chances up
to 60-80 percent Thursday, and 70-80 percent on Friday. A weak
onshore flow should still focus greatest coverage of showers and
storms inland, but with deeper moisture in play, coastal areas
should still see at least scattered coverage of showers and storms
as sea breeze initially forms. A few stronger storms will continue
to be possible, producing strong wind gusts and frequent lightning.
The very moist airmass and weak steering winds will also continue
the threat of locally heavy rainfall of 2-4" and minor flooding for
any slow moving or repeated rounds of heavier showers and storms.

Increasing convection and cloud cover should keep max temps a little
closer to normal with highs in the low 90s for most spots on
Thursday and upper 80s to low 90s on Friday. Humid conditions will
still produce peak heat index values up to around 100-105 degrees.

Saturday-Tuesday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Weak forcing
leaves some questions marks in the details of the forecast in the
extended term. Aloft broad, weak ridging builds across the eastern
US, and remains in place over the Subtropical Atlantic towards
Florida. Without any large scale forcing the front continues its
extended residency somewhere near Central or North Florida,
depending if and where additional disturbances develop along the
boundary. Either way, even ensembles keep very high moisture (PWATs
2+ inches) in place over Central Florida, through the weekend, then
moisture begins to gradually decrease early next week. Very high
rain chances (up to 70-80 percent) continue through the weekend,
then gradually decrease to 60-70 percent on Monday and 50-60 percent
on Tuesday as we progress into early next week. Temperatures follow
the same trend, remaining near to slightly below normal Saturday and
Sunday with the highest rain chances, then trending back up next
week as the rain chances decrease.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Wed Aug 6 2025

Tonight-Monday...A weak frontal boundary will linger across the
Florida peninsula over the next several days. A weak area of low
pressure along this boundary well east-northeast of the coastal
waters currently has low chance (30%) chance for tropical
development over the next 7 days. However, regardless of
development, this system is not forecast to not have any direct
impacts to the east central FL waters as it lifts N/NE and farther
away of the region into the weekend.

Winds are forecast to remain mostly light and variable through
tonight into Thursday morning, with speeds around 5 knots, and then
becoming onshore into Thursday afternoon around 5-10 knots as sea
breeze forms and shifts inland. Winds then predominately remain
onshore, generally out of the southeast Friday and into the weekend,
and then becoming more easterly into Monday, with wind speeds
remaining below 15 knots. Seas are currently forecast to remain
around 2-3 feet through Saturday, and then building to 3-4 feet
Sunday into Monday.

Above normal coverage of showers and storms is forecast over the
waters from late week and into the weekend as frontal boundary
lingers across the area and deeper moisture remains in place. Rain
chances then may trend closer to normal into early next week as
deeper moisture shifts west-northwest.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 145 PM EDT Wed Aug 6 2025

The east coast sea breeze has developed and moved inland of
coastal TAF sites early this afternoon. Therefore, have removed
mention of VCTS along the coast. Showers and storms observed along
the west coast breeze will progress inland toward LEE over the
next few hours, and have moved up the TEMPO time (19-23Z) for
TSRA impacts. Otherwise, TSRA TEMPOs remain at MCO/ISM/SFB later
in the afternoon as a sea breeze collision occurs near these
terminals. Similar to the past several nights, showers and storms
will linger a few hours beyond sunset. Light winds shift
southeast to east (8-10kts) at most interior sites as the east
coast sea breeze passes. Light and variable winds overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  90  75  89 /  20  60  50  80
MCO  76  93  76  92 /  40  80  40  80
MLB  77  90  77  90 /  20  60  40  70
VRB  75  91  75  91 /  20  60  40  70
LEE  76  92  76  90 /  50  80  50  80
SFB  76  92  76  91 /  30  70  40  80
ORL  77  93  76  92 /  40  80  40  80
FPR  74  91  74  91 /  20  60  40  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Weitlich
AVIATION...Law

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
438 PM EDT Wed Aug 6 2025

FLZ045-053-062100-
Osceola FL-Orange FL-
438 PM EDT Wed Aug 6 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL ORANGE AND NORTH
CENTRAL OSCEOLA COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM EDT...

At 438 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Orlando International Airport, moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Orlando, Kissimmee, Buena Ventura Lakes, East Lake Toho, and Oak
Ridge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2843 8150 2854 8131 2834 8108 2820 8142
TIME...MOT...LOC 2038Z 318DEG 10KT 2839 8134

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Law

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
513 PM EDT Wed Aug 6 2025

FLZ045-053-062145-
Osceola FL-Orange FL-
513 PM EDT Wed Aug 6 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL ORANGE AND
NORTHEASTERN OSCEOLA COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM EDT...

At 513 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Narcoossee, moving south at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Orlando, Kissimmee, Saint Cloud, Holopaw, and East Lake Toho.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2838 8135 2839 8115 2804 8092 2805 8134
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 338DEG 15KT 2824 8121

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Heil