Severe Thunderstorm Warning 97, NWS Melbourne, FL

785 
WWUS52 KMLB 131853
SVSMLB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
253 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

FLC009-127-131930-
/O.CON.KMLB.SV.W.0097.000000T0000Z-250713T1930Z/
Brevard FL-Volusia FL-
253 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM EDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN BREVARD AND SOUTHEASTERN VOLUSIA COUNTIES...

At 253 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Oak Hill,
moving south at 10 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Oak Hill, Scottsmoor, Mims, Maytown, and Apollo Beach.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 2884 8074 2866 8096 2877 8104 2883 8101
      2891 8094 2894 8082
TIME...MOT...LOC 1853Z 338DEG 7KT 2889 8082 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Watson

614 
WWUS52 KMLB 131901
SVSMLB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
301 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

FLC009-127-131911-
/O.CAN.KMLB.SV.W.0097.000000T0000Z-250713T1930Z/
Brevard FL-Volusia FL-
301 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN BREVARD AND
SOUTHEASTERN VOLUSIA COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 2884 8074 2866 8096 2877 8104 2883 8101
      2891 8094 2894 8082
TIME...MOT...LOC 1859Z 338DEG 7KT 2888 8081 

$$

Watson

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
211 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

- A disturbance and associated deep moisture moves over central
  Florida early this week. Above-normal lightning storm chances
  and locally heavy rainfall with be the primary impacts.

- High daily rain chances up to around 80% are expected through
  mid week.

- Hot and humid conditions with peak heat index values between 102
  to 107 degrees continue today; residents and visitors are
  encouraged to stay cool and well-hydrated to avoid heat-related
  illness.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Today... A moisture boundary slides southeastward into central
Florida along a broad surface trough. Building moisture should allow
for another day of diurnally driven showers and storms with coverage
peaking around 70-80 percent in the afternoon and evening. Shear
profiles remain weak with light steering flow out of the north-
northwest. This should favor a southward propagation of showers and
storms along a developing sea breeze, but increasing outflow
boundaries could still allow for slow and erratic storm motions. A
localized flooding rainfall threat exists today with storm total
accumulations of 2-4" possible. Heavy rainfall over short periods of
time could cause ponding of water on area roadways and minor
flooding of urban or low lying areas. While mid level storm
parameters remain modest, steep low level lapse rates, and boundary
collisions could allow for frequent lightning strikes and localized
wind gusts of 45-55 mph. Brief funnel clouds cannot be ruled out as
storms develop along the sea breeze.

High temperatures climb in to the low to mid 90s ahead of shower and
storm development. Combined with increasing humidity, peak heat
index values are forecast to range 102-107 degrees, and a Minor to
Moderate HeatRisk will exist. This level of heat affects most
individuals sensitive to heat, especially those without effective
cooling and/or adequate hydration.

Monday-Tuesday... A weak 500mb trough moves across the southwest
Atlantic Monday, passing over the Florida peninsula on Tuesday. A
broad surface trough offshore the southeast U.S. coast attempts to
become more organized with passing mid level support, developing a
weak low in vicinity of Florida. Waves of anomalously high moisture
move through the region each day with modeled PWATs as high as
2.1-2.2", and values range above the 90th climatological
percentile. High moisture in vicinity of weak mid level support
will continue to fuel high rain chances each day (~80%), and a
heavy rainfall threat will remain present. While global ensemble
guidance suggests daily areawide totals of 0.5-1.5", localized
totals of 2-4" remain in play both days. Areas that receive these
localized higher totals over multiple days will become vulnerable
to ponding of water and minor flooding. Although increased cloud
cover may limit surface instability, tall skinny CAPE profiles
around 2,000 J/kg and vorticity aloft suggest at least an isolated
strong storm threat. Stronger storms will be capable of
occasional to frequent lightning strikes and water loaded
downdrafts which can produce localized gusty winds.

Temperatures trend a few degrees cooler Monday and Tuesday,
corresponding to higher rain chances. Highs in the upper 80s to low
90s Monday range the mid to upper 80s by Tuesday. Morning low
temperatures hold steady in the low to mid 70s.

Wednesday-Saturday... The weak area of low pressure is nudged into
the Gulf on Wednesday as the Atlantic high builds back toward
Florida. As the low pressure departs westward, the National
Hurricane Center has highlighted a 20% chance of tropical
development into the middle to late part of the week. Regardless
of development deep moisture remains in place on the east side of
the feature, keeping high rain chances through mid week (70-80%).
By late week and into the weekend, the Atlantic ridge axis takes
control, favoring a more typical summertime pattern with rain
chances trending closer to normal.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

A broad trough of low pressure moves across the local Atlantic
waters early this week. Increased moisture in vicinity of this
feature will keep high daily rain chances (~60-80%) into midweek.
Light offshore flow backs south to southeast today and Monday as
the east coast sea breeze develops. Southerly flow then develops
from Tuesday onwards as the Atlantic ridge axis begins to
gradually rebuild over the local waters. Seas around 2 ft. Locally
higher winds and seas in vicinity of thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 140 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Scattered showers and storms have pushed in from the west and is
currently moving towards DAB. Latest CAMs show a couple rounds of
convection today, with the first round happening now and
continuing into late afternoon with the sea breeze, and the
second coming into early evening as the trough moves southward.
Have maintained afternoon TEMPOS with MVFR conditions for TSRA
this afternoon, starting 20/21Z across the interior, and 18/19Z
along the coast, as well as the secondary TEMPOs for this evening
for ISM and LEE starting at 00Z. Convection will diminish first
along the coast around sunset, and then across the interior around
05Z. Light and variable winds overnight will become WNW and
increase to 5-8KT by mid morning. Cams are showing scattered
showers pushing down from the north Monday morning, so have
included VCSH starting at 14Z for interior TAFs. Scattered
lightning storms will then form in the afternoon, so have included
VCTS for MCO starting at 18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  91  75  88 /  50  60  30  70
MCO  75  92  75  89 /  60  80  40  80
MLB  74  88  75  87 /  60  70  40  80
VRB  72  88  72  88 /  70  80  50  80
LEE  76  92  75  90 /  60  80  40  80
SFB  76  92  75  90 /  60  80  30  80
ORL  76  92  75  90 /  60  80  40  80
FPR  72  88  72  87 /  70  80  50  80

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Law
AVIATION...Watson

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
153 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

FLZ041-141-131830-
Coastal Volusia FL-Inland Volusia FL-
153 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL VOLUSIA COUNTY THROUGH
230 PM EDT...

At 152 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles northeast of DeLeon Springs to near
DeLand Airport to Lake Helen. Movement was southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Deltona, Daytona Beach, Port Orange, DeLand, and New Smyrna Beach.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or hard-topped vehicle. Remember, when
thunder roars, go indoors!

&&

LAT...LON 2924 8112 2893 8093 2888 8128 2923 8141
TIME...MOT...LOC 1752Z 299DEG 8KT 2920 8127 2907 8120 2899 8124

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Watson

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
219 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0208 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 SSE Midway            28.77N 81.22W
07/13/2025  M58 MPH          Seminole           FL   ASOS

            The Orlando/Sanford Airport measured a peak
            wind gust of 58MPH/50KT from the west at
            2:08 PM.

&&

MAT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
232 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

FLZ041-141-247-347-447-131915-
Coastal Volusia FL-Northern Brevard Barrier Islands FL-
Inland Volusia FL-Mainland Northern Brevard FL-
Inland Northern Brevard FL-
232 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN BREVARD AND
SOUTHEASTERN VOLUSIA COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM EDT...

At 231 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Port Orange to near Edgewater to near
Maytown. Movement was southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Port Orange, New Smyrna Beach, Edgewater, South Daytona, and Oak
Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or hard-topped vehicle. Remember, when
thunder roars, go indoors!

&&

LAT...LON 2883 8072 2863 8095 2877 8106 2879 8106
      2882 8107 2893 8101 2917 8101 2918 8095
TIME...MOT...LOC 1831Z 295DEG 13KT 2911 8095 2891 8096 2878 8104

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Watson

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
237 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

FLZ041-046-247-131900-
Seminole FL-Inland Volusia FL-Inland Northern Brevard FL-
237 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN SEMINOLE AND
SOUTHEASTERN VOLUSIA COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM EDT...

At 237 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Geneva, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Geneva and Lake Harney.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or hard-topped vehicle. Remember, when
thunder roars, go indoors!

&&

LAT...LON 2878 8103 2865 8092 2861 8097 2861 8105
      2873 8122 2879 8106
TIME...MOT...LOC 1837Z 289DEG 10KT 2874 8108

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Watson