Severe Thunderstorm Warning 80, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
254 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 201 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

- Hot and humid this week with peak heat indices up to 105

- There is a Marginal Risk (1/5) for strong to severe storms today
  for central and northern portions of the forecast area

- A Moderate Risk for rip currents continues at area beaches

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Rest of Today-Tonight...Showers and storms have developed along
the sea breeze as of around 230 PM. A storm near Melbourne was
reported to have produced sub-severe hail, so far. As the sea
breeze moves inland, this activity will continue to have the
ability to produce generally small hail (the 15Z XMR sounding
found 500mb temperatures around -7.5C, though melting can be
expected), as well as gusty winds to around 60 mph. The greatest
threat for strong to severe storms will be along the sea breeze
collision later this afternoon. Current CAM guidance suggests this
occurring near or just west of Orlando between 7-9 PM. Boundary
collisions will likely maintain showers and storms through around
10-11 PM, before drier conditions prevail the remainder of the
overnight hours. Hot conditions persist in areas that have yet to
see any rainfall yet today, though temperatures have cooled nicely
in the rain, with Melbourne currently at 76 degrees (its low for
the day). Overnight lows are forecast in the lower to mid-70s.

Wednesday-Monday...The Atlantic ridge axis will continue to lift
northward through late week, reaching the Georgia/South Carolina
area by the weekend. This will lead to prevailing southeasterly
flow across the local region and a dominant east coast sea breeze.
Thus, the highest coverage will move increasingly into the
interior/western half of the peninsula. Have maintained PoPs close
to the climatological average of 40-60%, rather than the
typically high NBM. Wednesday looks to be the best chance for
showers and storms, with up to 70% forecast west or Orlando.
Strong storms will remain a threat, with DCAPE values up to around
1000 J/kg potentially producing wind gusts up to around 50 mph.
By this weekend, building upper level ridging and another slug of
Saharan will likely limit PoPs, so the current forecast may be a
bit overzealous.

Late weekend into early next week, the ridge axis is forecast to
once again drift southward towards the local area. This would lead
to a return of southerly flow and a more centralized sea breeze
collision over the peninsula. Less coverage of showers and storms
would increase temperatures and heat indices, possibly close to
heat advisory criteria (108). For now, have maintained highs
upper 80s/lower 90s and peak heat indices up to 106F.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 201 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

The Atlantic ridge axis will continue to drift well north of the
local area through late week. This will support southeast flow
into the weekend. Offshore-moving showers and storms today will
remain increasingly over the interior during this period, limiting
the amount of coverage during the afternoons, but increasing the
likelihood of overnight/early morning showers and storms over the
waters. By Sunday, the ridge axis is forecast to move southward
once again, veering prevailing flow southerly. Winds 15 kts or
less. Seas 2-3 ft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 125 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

VFR conditions outside of convection through the TAF period.
Ongoing showers and storms along the east coast sea breeze this
afternoon, with additional SHRA/TSRA expected across the interior
later this afternoon with the sea breeze collision. Have included
a TEMPO for SUA until 19Z for MVFR conditions with TSRA. Have
included VCTS starting at 18Z for VRB-FPR-SUA; starting at 19/20Z
for MCO-ISM-SFB-LEE-DAB-TIX-MLB. TEMPOs starting at 23Z for TSRA
and MVFR conditions at MCO-SFB-ISM-DAB going through 02Z. Outside
of convection, southerly winds will back to the ESE/SE this
afternoon behind the sea breeze. Winds will then become light
overnight before becoming S/SE and increasing to 5-8 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  90  73  89 /  30  50  20  50
MCO  75  92  75  89 /  40  60  30  60
MLB  76  87  76  87 /  30  50  30  50
VRB  75  88  74  88 /  30  50  30  50
LEE  75  92  74  90 /  40  70  40  60
SFB  75  92  75  90 /  30  60  20  60
ORL  75  91  76  89 /  40  60  30  60
FPR  75  87  74  87 /  30  50  30  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Leahy
AVIATION...Watson

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1259 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

FLZ058-259-264-101730-
Okeechobee FL-Inland St. Lucie FL-Inland Martin FL-
1259 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN ST. LUCIE...
SOUTHEASTERN OKEECHOBEE AND WESTERN MARTIN COUNTIES THROUGH 130 PM
EDT...

At 1258 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Tradition to near Indiantown to near Canal
Point. Movement was northwest at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Indiantown, J And S Fish Camp, Tradition, and Port Mayaca.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Excessive cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter immediately inside a building or hard-topped vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2700 8062 2708 8066 2711 8066 2716 8071
      2719 8077 2738 8057 2726 8037 2699 8047
      2696 8051 2696 8061
TIME...MOT...LOC 1658Z 145DEG 12KT 2728 8046 2702 8056 2691 8070

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Watson

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
138 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

FLZ159-259-101815-
Coastal St. Lucie FL-Inland St. Lucie FL-
138 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL ST. LUCIE COUNTY THROUGH
215 PM EDT...

At 137 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Saint Lucie West, or 7 miles west of White City, moving north at 10
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Pierce, Indrio, White City, Port Saint Lucie River Park, and
Saint Lucie West.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Excessive cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter immediately inside a building or hard-topped vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2730 8033 2726 8055 2750 8064 2754 8035
TIME...MOT...LOC 1737Z 169DEG 8KT 2737 8046

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Watson

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
216 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

FLZ154-254-447-547-647-747-101845-
Southern Brevard Barrier Islands FL-
Northern Brevard Barrier Islands FL-Inland Indian River FL-
Coastal Indian River FL-Mainland Southern Brevard FL-
Inland Southern Brevard FL-
216 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN INDIAN RIVER AND
SOUTHEASTERN BREVARD COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM EDT...

At 216 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Rockledge to West Melbourne to Micco.
These storms were nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Palm Bay, Melbourne, Rockledge, Sebastian, and Cocoa.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2775 8056 2806 8074 2836 8085 2846 8061
      2837 8057 2819 8056 2776 8037
TIME...MOT...LOC 1816Z 255DEG 3KT 2829 8074 2808 8066 2787 8054

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Haley

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
411 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

FLZ053-058-254-102030-
Okeechobee FL-Osceola FL-Inland Indian River FL-
411 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL OKEECHOBEE...
SOUTHWESTERN INDIAN RIVER AND SOUTHEASTERN OSCEOLA COUNTIES THROUGH
430 PM EDT...

At 411 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southwest of Blue Cypress Lake. This thunderstorm was nearly
stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of north central
Okeechobee, southwestern Indian River and southeastern Osceola
Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or hard-topped vehicle. Remember, when
thunder roars, go indoors!

&&

LAT...LON 2772 8079 2763 8075 2754 8090 2761 8097
      2771 8101
TIME...MOT...LOC 2011Z 070DEG 2KT 2765 8084

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Schaper

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
623 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

FLZ045-053-144-102300-
Osceola FL-Orange FL-Southern Lake County FL-
623 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE...
SOUTHWESTERN ORANGE AND NORTHWESTERN OSCEOLA COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM
EDT...

At 623 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles west of Four Corners, or 13 miles southwest of Bay Lake, moving
north at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Orlando, Windermere, Bay Lake, Celebration, and Four Corners.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Excessive cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter immediately inside a building or hard-topped vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2849 8184 2850 8144 2826 8156 2826 8166
      2835 8166 2835 8179 2836 8179 2836 8186
      2835 8186 2835 8194
TIME...MOT...LOC 2223Z 194DEG 7KT 2830 8177

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Schaper

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
628 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

FLZ045-046-102300-
Orange FL-Seminole FL-
628 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN SEMINOLE AND WEST
CENTRAL ORANGE COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM EDT...

At 628 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Orlovista, or over Pine Hills. This thunderstorm was nearly
stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts 40 to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Orlando, Altamonte Springs, Ocoee, Winter Garden, and Winter Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Excessive cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter immediately inside a building or hard-topped vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2868 8136 2858 8131 2849 8136 2849 8158
      2861 8158
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 061DEG 3KT 2855 8143

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Schaper