Severe Thunderstorm Warning 74, NWS Melbourne, FL

089 
WWUS52 KMLB 311153
SVSMLB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
753 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025

FLC097-311215-
/O.CON.KMLB.SV.W.0074.000000T0000Z-250531T1215Z/
Osceola FL-
753 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 AM EDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL OSCEOLA COUNTY...

At 753 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Harmony, or
near Saint Cloud, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Saint Cloud, Harmony, Alligator Lake, and Pine Grove.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 2827 8108 2803 8113 2807 8133 2807 8135
      2808 8135 2827 8131
TIME...MOT...LOC 1153Z 276DEG 34KT 2816 8123 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Schaper

274 
WWUS52 KMLB 311159
SVSMLB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
759 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025

FLC097-311209-
/O.CAN.KMLB.SV.W.0074.000000T0000Z-250531T1215Z/
Osceola FL-
759 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL OSCEOLA COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled. However, gusty winds are 
still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 2827 8108 2803 8113 2807 8133 2807 8135
      2808 8135 2827 8131
TIME...MOT...LOC 1156Z 276DEG 34KT 2815 8116 

$$

Schaper

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
651 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 331 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025

- Broken band of showers and lightning storms (60-70% coverage)
  will push across the I-4 corridor early this morning, Brevard
  and Osceola thru mid-morning, and Okeechobee County & the
  Treasure Coast late morning-early afternoon, all ahead of a late
  season "cool" front. Today carries a Marginal Risk (beginning
  north and ending south) of marginally severe wind gusts (60+
  mph), small hail, and brief urban flooding from stronger storms.

- The front stalls over south Florida by Sunday, limiting rain
  and storm chances mainly to the Treasure Coast and southern
  Space Coast to close out the weekend.

- Seasonably warm to hot conditions persist into next week, with a
  brief drop in humidity across the I-4 corridor late this weekend
  as drier air filters in briefly behind the front.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025

Current-tonight...Weak "cool" frontal boundary dropping southward
across north FL early this morning. Out ahead of this feature, a
broken band of showers and embedded lightning storms is moving
east/southeast across north-central FL. The convection will
continue to press southward arriving across the I-4 corridor ahead
of sunrise, into Osceola/Brevard counties ahead of/thru mid-
morning, finally Okeechobee County & the Treasure Coast late
morning/early afternoon. Mid-level energy will aid this system as
it passes south. Most probable impacts include lightning strikes,
gusty winds 35-55 mph locally - few gusts to around 60 mph in
play, torrential downpours, and perhaps some small hail. The
strong to marginally severe storm threat will end, from north to
south, as the storms through. Any one location may experience 1-2
hrs (max) of storm activity, though lighter debris rain could last
a bit longer.

With mainly cloud conditions, skies will gradually improve thru
late afternoon/early evening (north-south). Clouds/precip will
limit high temps, though it will remain humid. Max temps forecast
in the M80s with a few U80s sprinkled in. Outside of showers and
storms, expect mainly SW/W/WNW winds 8-15 mph (highest along the
Space/Treasure coasts). The front does not make a clean passage
southward and becomes quasi-stationary near Lake Okee. With ample
moisture south of Orlando, energy aloft and proximity to front -
expect some renewed convection tonight (esp late) generally south
Brevard-Osceola southward. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible
late tonight into early Sun morning. Conditions humid, again,
tonight with lows well into the 60s to L70s. SW/W winds light this
evening and overnight.

Sun-Sun Night...The pattern remains unsettled with the front aligned
east-west across the Lake Okee region early in the period. We
continue with some "troughiness" aloft and deep moisture, with PWATs
around 2 inches south-central FL. While we do advertise PoPs
(20-30pct) across the I-4 corridor, greatest precip chances extend
southward (60-80pct) toward Okeechobee County and the Treasure
Coast. The moisture/precip gradient will remain rather tight. Some
locally heavy rainfall will be possible here - esp early. Main
storm impacts continue to be gusty winds, lightning strikes,
locally heavy rainfall, and small to coin-size hail. The pressure
gradient remains rather weak so we will see some variation in wind
component, but generally SSW/SW outside of convection. Winds could
back more S/SE toward the coast. Max temps return to U80s to
potentially a few L90s. Lows continue near seasonal with
conditions muggy.

Mon-Mon Night...A vigorous mid-level trough is forecast to pass
across the FL peninsula on Mon. Temps at 500mb will average -9C to -
11C and moisture return northward could be key to another active day
for esp afternoon-evening lightning storms. For now have 30-50pct
across the I-4 corridor and 50-80pct south thru Martin County -
where moisture is deepest. Sea/lake breeze, convective boundary
interactions will all play a role as well. WRLY steering flow still
favors late day convection across the eastern peninsula. Locally
heavy rainfall will again be possible esp our southern coverage
warning area. Activity will wind down and push off the coast
during the evening. Even with considerable cloudiness forecast,
afternoon temps will recover into the U80s and perhaps a few L90s
if enough sunshine can occur. Overnight lows remain consistent.

Tue-Fri...As mid/upper level troughing pushes off/away from the
Eastern Seaboard, shortwave ridging builds across the Gulf Coast
States, southeast U.S., and north FL. At the surface, high
pressure centered over the mid Atlc States builds into the western
Atlc with associated ridge axis gradually building back across
north FL. Deepening moisture gradually builds back into the area.
Mainly SCT afternoon/evening convection forecast each day. Storm
steering becomes light and somewhat variable into mid-week. E/SE
winds will be common during the day with speeds 5-10 mph and
higher along the coast, with the ECSB developing and pushing
inland. Seasonably warm temperatures prevail through the period,
with afternoon highs in the U80s to L90s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 331 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025

Today-Wed...A weak late-season "cool" front slides southward and
becomes quasi-stationary today across the southern waters. This
boundary will be preceded by a broken band of showers/embedded
lightning storms that will move into the Volusia waters ahead of
sunrise, Brevard waters thru mid-morning, and Treasure Coast
waters late morning-early afternoon. A few strong to marginally
severe storms will be possible. Primary impacts will be cloud-to-
water lightning strikes, gusty to locally strong wind gusts,
torrential downpours, and small hail. The front is forecast to
gradually dissipate early next week as high pressure builds over
the Southeast U.S. SW/W winds slacken later this afternoon into
Sun, slowly turning from W to S at around 10 kts. Early next week
winds become onshore (E/SE). Initial seas 2-4 ft this morning into
early afternoon subside to 1-2 ft Sun night thru early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 651 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025

MCO IMPACTS:
- Band of lightning storms expected around Greater Orlando through
  around 13Z. TEMPO MVFR/IFR within the storms.
- 20-30% chance of wind gusts 35+ KT through around 13Z.

Ongoing bands of storms moving across our Greater Orlando
terminals this morning will slowly push southeastward, reaching
the Treasure Coast terminals late morning/midday. Primary hazards
will be sudden gusts and frequent lightning. There is a low
(20-30%) chance for wind gusts exceeding 35 KT at any given
terminal with this activity. Quieter conds this afternoon with VFR
prevailing once storms pass. Winds predominantly WSW 5-12 KT
through the period. Very low chance for convective redevelopment
this afternoon/evening (20-30%). Additional showers/storms
redeveloping esp for Treasure Coast terminals overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 331 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025

Post-frontal (drier) conditions on Sun will drive min aftn RH
values to 35-40pct north/west of I-4. Otherwise, scattered
(occasionally numerous) coverage of lightning storms remain in the
forecast into early next week. A few storms could be strong to
marginally severe. For today, an early start as a pre-frontal
band of showers/embedded storms drop south to the I-4 corridor
thru sunrise, slowly pushing south thru the remainder of the
morning and early afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  67  88  69 /  40   0  10  20
MCO  85  71  88  72 /  60  10  30  30
MLB  85  71  87  72 /  70  30  40  40
VRB  86  70  87  70 /  70  40  60  50
LEE  85  69  89  71 /  40   0  10  20
SFB  86  69  90  71 /  60  10  20  20
ORL  85  71  90  72 /  60  10  30  30
FPR  87  69  87  70 /  70  50  70  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Heil

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
643 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 SW Ponce Inlet        29.05N 80.95W
05/31/2025  M43 MPH          Volusia            FL   AWOS

            New Smyrna Beach Municipal Airport measured
            a peak wind gust of 43MPH/37KT from the
            northwest at 6:10 AM.

&&

JH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
702 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025

FLZ045-053-247-347-447-547-647-747-311145-
Southern Brevard Barrier Islands FL-Osceola FL-
Northern Brevard Barrier Islands FL-Orange FL-
Mainland Northern Brevard FL-Mainland Southern Brevard FL-
Inland Southern Brevard FL-Inland Northern Brevard FL-
702 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL BREVARD...SOUTHEASTERN
ORANGE AND NORTHEASTERN OSCEOLA COUNTIES THROUGH 745 AM EDT...

At 702 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles east of Playalinda Beach to 9 miles
south of Wedgefield. Movement was southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Melbourne, Titusville, Rockledge, Cocoa, and Cocoa Beach.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or hard-topped vehicle. Remember, when
thunder roars, go indoors!

&&

LAT...LON 2839 8057 2820 8056 2805 8081 2831 8114
      2866 8059 2860 8054 2846 8049
TIME...MOT...LOC 1102Z 310DEG 27KT 2864 8051 2835 8103

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Schaper

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
715 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025

FLZ053-547-311145-
Osceola FL-Inland Southern Brevard FL-
715 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT OSCEOLA COUNTY THROUGH 745 AM
EDT...

At 715 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles northeast of Harmony to Winter Haven.
Movement was east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Kissimmee, Saint Cloud, Lake Kissimmee, Holopaw, and West Lake Toho.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or hard-topped vehicle. Remember, when
thunder roars, go indoors!

&&

LAT...LON 2827 8166 2833 8138 2834 8109 2805 8079
      2783 8122 2786 8130 2792 8131 2794 8135
      2795 8134 2800 8139 2800 8142 2804 8146
      2806 8146 2801 8138 2808 8135 2809 8145
      2814 8146 2814 8152 2820 8152 2826 8156
TIME...MOT...LOC 1115Z 285DEG 31KT 2828 8103 2806 8169

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Schaper

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
720 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 NE Kennedy Space Cent 28.61N 80.62W
05/31/2025  M46 MPH          Brevard            FL   Other Federal

            USSF wind sensor on tower 211 measured a
            peak wind gust of 46MPH/40KT from the west
            at 7:05 AM. Sensor elevation is 54 feet.

&&

MW

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
721 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     4 ESE Kennedy Space Cen 28.57N 80.59W
05/31/2025  M46 MPH          Brevard            FL   Other Federal

            USSF wind sensor on tower 110 measured a
            peak wind gust of 46MPH/40KT from the west
            at 7:10 AM. Sensor elevation is 54 feet.

&&

MW

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
722 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 NW Kennedy Space Cent 28.62N 80.69W
05/31/2025  M43 MPH          Brevard            FL   Other Federal

            USSF wind sensor on tower 512 measured a
            peak wind gust of 43MPH/37KT from the west
            at 7:00 AM. Sensor elevation is 30 feet.

&&

MW