Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
336 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 333 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025

- Marginal Risk for severe storms this afternoon and early
  evening mainly inland from the immediate coast; primary hazards
  include gusty to damaging winds and large hail

- Continued chance for afternoon/evening rain and lightning storms
  Sunday into next week

- Heat and humidity build each day into next week with peak heat
  index values around 100 this weekend, 100-105 next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025

Through tonight...Late morning Cape sounding shows considerable
instability with MUCAPE near 4900 J/kg. Strong sfc heating
combined with cool mid level temps (-9.7C at 500mb) is producing
steep lapse rates. Pocket of mid level dry air seen on the
sounding is helping to produce DCAPE of 1300 J/kg indicative of
strong downburst potential very prominent outflow boundaries seen
on KMLB Doppler radar emanating from convection. Storms firing
behind the sea breeze just inland from the immediate coast will
continue develop along/behind the inland- moving sea breeze.
Steering flow is toward the east at 10-15 mph but storms along and
behind the sea breeze will exhibit more erratic motion. Focus for
strong/severe storms will shift to the interior through early eve
as sea/lake/outflow boundaries collide. Large hail, damaging
winds and excessive lightning will accompany the strongest storms.
With the rather early onset of convection this afternoon, expect
the threat for strong/severe storms convection to end around
sunset with lingering rain/embedded storms ending by late evening.

Sun-Mon...A rinse-and-repeat weather pattern will stick around
for Sunday and Monday, with heat index values climbing by another
degree or two each day. Mid level ridging is forecast to build
over the Florida Peninsula as upper level winds decrease further.
Showers and storms are anticipated to form in the mid to late
afternoon hours on Sunday, with the potential for a slightly more
active west coast breeze. Westerly steering flow on Sunday will
push showers and storms toward the east FL coast, while lighter
steering winds on Monday will result in storm motion being more
erratic. A strong storm or two cannot be ruled out each day with
gusty winds being the primary threat. Outside of storms, heat
index values will nudge higher into the low-mid 100s, especially
on Monday.

Tue-Sat...Through mid week, ridging holds over central Florida
with light southerly flow backing to the southeast each afternoon
(behind the sea breeze). Rain and storm chances (40-60%) will
increasingly favor interior locations as the sea breeze pushes
farther inland each afternoon. Daytime temps in the low 90s
combined with high humidity will lead to heat indices approaching
100-105 degrees during peak heating hours. Adequate cooling,
hydration, and sun protection will be needed as this stretch of
hot and humid weather lasts through much of the work week. By
Friday into next weekend, 500mb height anomalies hint at a change
in our overall pattern...increasingly unsettled weather leading to
potentially higher, more widespread rain chances. Additional
cloud cover and the approach of a front could also provide some
relief from the heat. Any specifics beyond that will become
clearer through the upcoming week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 333 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025

High pressure over the local waters will promote light southerly
flow (~5-10 kt), followed by a daily afternoon/evening sea breeze
that backs winds to the E/SE 10-14 kt near the coast. Generally
favorable boating conditions are forecast as a result. However,
scattered afternoon/evening showers and storms will create the
primary boating hazard, bringing the potential for strong/gusty
winds, hail, and lightning strikes. Seas 1-2 FT, up to 3 FT
offshore.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 157 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025

Mainly VFR is forecast outside of showers/storms. Scat'd storms are
forecast to develop this PM and SUN PM over ECFL as the ECSB converges
with the WCSB and outflow from previous storms. Isol'd severe storms
are forecast this PM. ESE winds this PM at around 8-12kts with gusts
to 15-18kts are expected to weaken tonight before increasing on SUN
after 16Z. A TEMPO group at 09-13Z for MVFR VIS is forecast at KSUA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 333 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025

No low RH concerns for the foreseeable future. High pressure over
the area for the next several days will promote light southerly
flow, backing to the southeast each afternoon behind the east
coast sea breeze. The sea breeze will be the focus for developing
rain and lightning storms each afternoon and evening as it moves
inland. Lightning strikes could lead to additional fire starts.
Daytime smoke dispersion will be Good to Very Good with lower
values along the immediate coast in the Fair category.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  90  71  91 /  10  40  20  50
MCO  72  91  73  92 /  20  60  20  60
MLB  73  88  74  89 /  30  50  20  60
VRB  72  89  73  90 /  30  40  20  60
LEE  71  92  73  92 /  10  60  20  60
SFB  71  92  72  93 /  10  60  20  60
ORL  72  92  73  92 /  20  60  20  60
FPR  71  89  73  90 /  40  40  20  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Fehling

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