Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
303 PM EDT Thu May 8 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Thu May 8 2025

- Threat for strong to severe storms has increased for late this
  afternoon and evening, with a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for
  severe weather north and east of Orlando, and a Marginal Risk
  (Level 1 of 5) covering much of the rest of east central
  Florida.

- An active weather pattern will continue over the next several
  days, with afternoon/evening shower and lightning storm chances
  continuing, and some storms potentially becoming strong to
  severe.

- Above normal rainfall forecast through early next week will
  help alleviate ongoing drought conditions, but will increase the
  potential of localized urban and poor drainage flooding,
  especially across any areas that receive repeated rounds of
  heavy rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Thu May 8 2025

Currently-Tonight...Latest satellite showing less cu development
where the east coast sea breeze has formed, with more along and out
ahead of the west coast breeze through north central FL this
afternoon where GOES-19 TPW imagery showers greater moisture (PW
values 1.6-1.7"). Initial formation of showers and storms is
therefore occurring across areas across and NW of the I-4
corridor, with greatest coverage still forecast to be focused
across or possibly just east of the I-4 corridor where sea
breeze/outflow boundary mergers are more likely late this
afternoon. Westerly steering flow will then tend to focus
convection eastward back toward the coast of Volusia/Brevard
counties and offshore through this evening. The threat for strong
to severe storms has increased, and SPC now has a Slight Risk
(Level 2 of 5) for severe weather across areas generally north
and east of Orlando, with a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) extending
across much of the rest of east central FL (except southern
Treasure Coast). Main storm threats will be strong to locally
damaging winds of 40-60 mph, hail up to 1 inch in diameter,
frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall of 1-3 inches which
may lead to brief standing water issues in urban or poor drainage
areas. PoPs still range up to 60-70 percent from Osceola/Brevard
northward decreasing to 20 percent along the southern Treasure
Coast.

Convection will wind down and shift offshore through late evening,
with mostly dry conditions overnight and lows in the mid 60s to low
70s.

Friday-Saturday...Active weather pattern continues, with scattered
to numerous showers and storms continuing to develop each afternoon
and evening. Greatest coverage will continue to focus north and
inland of the Treasure Coast each day, with rain chances up to 60-70
percent. W/SW steering flow will persist and also increase into
Saturday, increasing the potential for showers and storms moving
back toward the coast and offshore each afternoon/evening. The
threat for strong to marginally severe storms will also continue,
with currently a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather
across much of the area Friday and north of Orlando on Saturday.
Temps will tend to cool aloft to -10 to -11C at 500mb on Friday to
-11 to -12C on Saturday, with a slight increase in mid level winds
and sufficient instability to produce a threat for strong to locally
damaging winds, large hail and frequent lightning. Locally heavy
rainfall will also continue to be possible, producing totals of 1-3
inches in a short period of time, and minor standing water impacts
across urban and poor drainage areas. Temps remain near to slightly
above seasonal values.

Sunday-Wednesday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Mid/upper low over
southern LA and the NW Gulf early in the period will slowly weaken
and lift northward into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys thru middle of
next week. This will help maintain a SW flow aloft across the region
and piling up of afternoon/evening storms across the eastern
peninsula each day. A persistent pattern will continue into at least
Tue with high rain chances forecast (up to 60-80%). Strong to
marginally severe storms will remain in play with an increasing
excessive rainfall (flooding) threat. On Wed, potential post-frontal
conditions will drop PoPs (30-50pct) as drier air moves in from the
west. Clouds and precip may help to limit afternoon highs to the L-
U80s. Lows generally in the 60s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Thu May 8 2025

Tonight-Monday...An active weather pattern will continue, with sea
breeze generated showers and storms developing and increasing in
coverage each afternoon/evening, with some of this activity pushing
back toward the coast and offshore. Some storms may potentially
become strong to severe, producing strong wind gusts of 30-50 knots,
hail and frequent lightning strikes. Outside of storms, S/SE winds
will largely persist with speeds generally less than 15 knots,
but may increase to around 15 knots at times offshore this weekend
into early next week. Seas primarily 2-4 ft, possibly building to
5 ft offshore Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 121 PM EDT Thu May 8 2025

MCO IMPACT:
- 50-70% coverage of evening showers and storms 21-01Z.
- 30-40% risk for thunderstorm gusts of 35+KT.

Active evening of showers and storms appears to be on the way.
Hi-res guidance continues to indicate the highest coverage over
the Orlando and Daytona area terminals. Strong, erratic wind
gusts, coin-sized hail, and frequent lightning will accompany the
strongest storms. Quieter overnight, then another round of storms
over similar areas late Friday. Fair weather winds becoming ESE
along the immediate coastal sites in the afternoons, otherwise SSW
5-12 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  68  88  69  85 /  60  60  60  70
MCO  70  88  71  87 /  60  70  60  70
MLB  70  87  71  86 /  50  60  60  60
VRB  69  88  70  87 /  30  50  40  50
LEE  70  88  71  86 /  40  70  50  70
SFB  69  90  69  87 /  60  70  60  70
ORL  71  89  71  87 /  60  70  60  70
FPR  69  88  69  87 /  30  50  40  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Weitlich
AVIATION...Heil

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
517 PM EDT Thu May 8 2025

FLZ053-082145-
Osceola FL-
517 PM EDT Thu May 8 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN OSCEOLA COUNTY
THROUGH 545 PM EDT...

At 516 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Haines City to near Poinciana to 8 miles
northwest of Lake Kissimmee. Movement was east to northeast at 10
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Kissimmee, Intercession City, West Lake Toho, Poinciana, and
Campbell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or hard-topped vehicle. Remember, when
thunder roars, go indoors!

&&

LAT...LON 2833 8145 2817 8127 2803 8109 2796 8135
      2798 8138 2800 8139 2801 8142 2805 8146
      2806 8146 2806 8144 2801 8138 2804 8136
      2807 8137 2807 8135 2808 8135 2809 8145
      2814 8146 2814 8152 2820 8152 2826 8156
TIME...MOT...LOC 2116Z 245DEG 8KT 2814 8156 2813 8148 2801 8136

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Watson

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
523 PM EDT Thu May 8 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0508 PM     Hail             2 SSW Apopka            28.65N 81.53W
05/08/2025  E1.00 Inch       Orange             FL   Trained Spotter

            Trained spotter was located at SR-414 and
            Marden Rd.

&&

SK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
529 PM EDT Thu May 8 2025

FLZ045-046-082200-
Orange FL-Seminole FL-
529 PM EDT Thu May 8 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN SEMINOLE AND
SOUTHWESTERN ORANGE COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM EDT...

At 528 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Orlando Executive Airport, or over College Park, moving southeast at
10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Orlando, Altamonte Springs, Ocoee, Winter Garden, and Winter Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or hard-topped vehicle. Remember, when
thunder roars, go indoors!

&&

LAT...LON 2858 8157 2870 8138 2855 8109 2837 8146
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 305DEG 10KT 2856 8135

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Watson

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
533 PM EDT Thu May 8 2025

FLZ041-141-082200-
Coastal Volusia FL-Inland Volusia FL-
533 PM EDT Thu May 8 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL VOLUSIA COUNTY
THROUGH 600 PM EDT...

At 533 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
New Smyrna Beach, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Port Orange, New Smyrna Beach, Edgewater, Oak Hill, and Bethune
Beach.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or hard-topped vehicle. Remember, when
thunder roars, go indoors!

&&

LAT...LON 2902 8084 2888 8077 2886 8106 2904 8111
      2907 8088
TIME...MOT...LOC 2133Z 263DEG 12KT 2897 8097

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Watson

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
559 PM EDT Thu May 8 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     Hail             Edgewater               28.97N 80.90W
05/08/2025  M0.50 Inch       Volusia            FL   Trained Spotter

            Trained spotter reported half inch hail with
            winds around 30-35 KT in Edgewater at 5:45
            PM.

&&

MW

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