Severe Thunderstorm Warning 24, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
223 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 223 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025

-Showers and lightning storms late this afternoon and evening,
 mainly along and south of the I-4 corridor, with a sea breeze
 collision across the eastern peninsula. Some storms may be strong
 with the primary threat gusty winds, lightning strikes, small
 hail, and torrential downpours.

-Warming trend through this week and into the weekend with peak
 heat indices reaching the lower 90s west of I-95.

-Isolated showers and storms Tuesday before becoming dry once again
 mid week with no mentionable rain chances through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Current-Tonight...A rough start earlier today with the low clouds
and patchy fog around, in part, from the moisture from last
evening's storms. However, still unseasonably warm with temp maxes
realizing the M80s at the coast and U80s to around 90F into the
interior. This will push peak afternoon heat indices in the L90s for
many locations - esp W of I-95. A weak frontal boundary continues to
sag into the Deep South and will settle across the Gulf Coast States
and north Florida late today/evening. SSW/SW winds this aftn 8-12
mph across the interior and 10-15 mph at the coast, though winds
"back" to ESE/SE here with a delayed sea breeze later in the
afternoon. There will be minimal movement inland or it may just be
pinned along the coast, esp along the Volusia coast - should it
develop this far north.

The WCSB will push well inland with ISOLD-WDLY SCT convective
coverage in association, and expect a collision this evening across
the eastern peninsula with its EC counterpart which could promote
ISOLD coverage itself ahead of any collision. SCT showers/lightning
storms will result from the collision of both boundaries near the
east coast and steering flow (WRLY) aloft will take this activity
out across the intracoastal and near shore Atlc waters this evening.
A few storms could be locally strong near the coast with frequent
lightning strikes, gusty winds up to around 50 mph, small hail, and
torrential downpours. There will be a modest increase in PWATs (1.50-
1.70 inches) near any sea breeze or mesoscale boundary collisions
across our coastal counties. Temps aloft remain fairly cool (H500:
-10C to -11C). Land areas will remain dry later this evening and
overnight as SW winds become light.

Overnight mins continue mild and in the 60s areawide. Expect some
thinning of skies thru the night from the earlier convection. There
may be some patchy fog formation at least across the I-4 corridor
and perhaps thru central Osceola/north Brevard; cannot rule out some
patchy fog southward thru the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee County
as well, but low confidence has kept inclusion absent for these
areas presently.

Tue-Tue Night...Mainly zonal flow aloft in the mid-levels with no
significant shortwave activity across the region as high pressure
begins to amplify late in the period NE of the Bahamas. At the
surface, the former frontal boundary to the north becomes diffuse
and washes out. Some ongoing convection out ahead of this feature
may approach Lake/Volusia counties late morning or early afternoon
if it is able to hold together and/or re-generate. The pressure
gradient is weak with light "offshore" morning winds transitioning
onshore in the afternoon along the coast as the ECSB develops and
pushes inland. With some residual moisture around from the previous
boundary and a likely sea breeze collision over the interior in the
afternoon, we could see ISOLD shower and storm development late in
the day/early evening, and generally from central Osceola-central
Brevard northward. Steering flow remains WRLY, so any activity able
to develop will either diminish or move off of the Volusia/Brevard
coasts by around mid-evening, with dry conditions overnight. Above
normal temperatures continue, with highs in the U80s across the
interior and L-M80s along the coast. Min temps will fall into the M-
U60s, to 70F in the Greater Orlando area.

Wed-Mon...Previous Extended Forecast Discussion Modified...Mid-upper
level high pressure across the western Atlc will extend back across
the Florida peninsula and dominate local weather while finally
weakening and slowly shifting eastward late in the period. At the
surface, high pressure across the Northeast on Tuesday will slowly
shift southward out into the western Atlantic through early next
week, with associated ridge axis east-west oriented north of the
area, but shifting further south across the central FL peninsula
later in the weekend. Locally southeast winds will persist through
much of the period, with speeds generally around 10 mph across the
interior, and 10-15 mph along the coast. Winds shift south on Sun
and southwest on Mon with the approach of the next frontal boundary.
The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form and push inland each
afternoon through the weekend. No mentionable rain chances, yet,
through the weekend, with rain chances (20-40 percent) returning on
Mon ahead of the frontal boundary. Temperatures will remain well
above normal, with afternoon highs reaching the U80s to L90s across
the interior, and L-M80s along the coast. Peak afternoon heat
indices will approach L90s each day, mainly W of I-95. Overnight
mins mainly in the 60s areawide - also well above climo.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 223 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Remainder of Afternoon-Tonight...A weak frontal boundary lies
north of the local waters, hence SW winds out ahead of it, though
they will "back" this afternoon to S/SE with sea breeze formation
along the coast. Speeds 8-15 kts. Winds will again veer SW/W later
this evening/overnight, post evening convection. Late day showers
and lightning storms are forecast to develop inland or along the
coast as there will be a sea breeze collision across the eastern
peninsula. Steering flow will take these ISOLD-SCT storms off of
the coast and across the intracoastal and near shore Atlc waters
into this evening. A few storms could be strong with primary
affects cloud-to-water lightning strikes, gusty winds, small hail,
torrential downpours, and perhaps a brief waterspout. Mariners
should keep an eye to the sky late today/early evening for
developing/approaching storms. Else, seas 3-4 ft near shore and
4-5 ft offshore (north of Sebastian Inlet). Winds/seas locally
higher invof storms.

Tue-Fri...Previous Extended Marine Forecast Discussion Modified...A
weak frontal boundary will stall over northern Florida before
washing out on Tue. High pressure will then dominate the local
waters by mid-week with generally favorable boating conditions
through the period. South to southwest winds around 10 KT on Tue
will back to the southeast in the afternoon with the formation of
the east coast sea breeze. Southeast winds will increase to around
15 KT on Wed, and 15-20 KT on Thu before diminishing to around 15 KT
once again on Fri. Mostly dry conditions are forecast through late
week, except for isolated to scattered showers mainly north of
Sebastian Inlet on Tue and Tue night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 145 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Mainly VFR forecast thru this TAF period, with the exception of
SHRA/TSRA 20z-03z and fog potential after 07z-08z Tue. across the
interior. SSW generally 10 kt with gusts around 15 kt at the coast
this afternoon. Iso/sct SHRA/TSRA are expected to develop near or
just east of MCO around 20-21z, pushing toward TIX/MLB after 22z.
TEMPOs were maintained there. Farther south, lingering SHRA/TSRA
at VRB-FPR lingers thru 02-03z before dissipating and moving
offshore. Any storm will be capable of wind gusts 35 knots or
higher.

Model guidance is depicting some fog development, primarily at
LEE, though coverage may expand in later model runs to include
ISM/MCO. Included reduced VIS at LEE to show a trend 08z-14z Tue.
Additional SHRA or iso TSRA may approach LEE/DAB after 13z-14z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  66  84  68  84 /  10  20  10  10
MCO  68  89  70  87 /  10  20  10  10
MLB  65  84  69  84 /  30  10  10  10
VRB  65  86  69  84 /  40  10  10  10
LEE  68  87  69  89 /  10  20   0  10
SFB  67  89  69  89 /  10  20   0  10
ORL  68  89  71  89 /  10  20  10  10
FPR  65  86  69  84 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Schaper

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Updated
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1020 AM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-
164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747-010300-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Osceola-Okeechobee-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Coastal Indian River-Coastal Saint Lucie-
Coastal Martin-Inland Northern Brevard-Inland Indian River-
Inland Saint Lucie-Inland Martin-Mainland Northern Brevard-
Northern Brevard Barrier Islands-Inland Southern Brevard-
Mainland Southern Brevard-Southern Brevard Barrier Islands-
1020 AM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Florida.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Scattered lightning storms will develop this afternoon and
evening. Conditions are favorable for a few of these storms to
become strong, especially along the coast. The main storm hazards
will be gusty winds up to around 50 mph, lightning strikes, small
hail, and locally heavy downpours.

.RIP CURRENT AND SURF IMPACT...
A Moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents exists at all
central Florida Atlantic beaches. Always swim near a lifeguard and
never enter the water alone.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
At least a Moderate Risk of dangerous rip currents will exist at all
central Florida Atlantic beaches this week.

A lower coverage of lightning storms is forecast Tuesday afternoon
with the main storm hazards being gusty winds, lightning strikes and
locally heavy downpours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed this afternoon and tonight.

Effective March 31, 2025, the National Weather Service in
Melbourne will discontinue the issuance of this product, the
text hazardous weather outlook. Hazardous weather information
will continue to be available through the graphical hazardous
weather outlook, the area forecast discussion as well as our
website, please email any questions or comments to Will Ulrich,
Warning Coordination Meteorologist.

Sedlock/Watson

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
503 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025

FLZ044-045-144-312145-
Northern Lake County FL-Orange FL-Southern Lake County FL-
503 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT LAKE AND NORTHWESTERN ORANGE
COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM EDT...

At 503 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Paisley to 9 miles northeast of Dade City.
Movement was east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Minneola, Pine Lakes, Paradise Heights, Oakland, and Mount Dora.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2872 8195 2896 8180 2896 8166 2898 8166
      2899 8136 2871 8145 2871 8146 2862 8148
      2835 8178 2836 8179 2836 8186 2835 8186
      2835 8196
TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 268DEG 14KT 2893 8155 2843 8206

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Schaper

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
549 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025

FLZ041-044-312230-
Northern Lake County FL-Inland Volusia FL-
549 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN LAKE AND WEST
CENTRAL VOLUSIA COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM EDT...

At 549 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Paisley, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pine Lakes, Orange City, Altoona, Lake Mack-Forest Hills, and DeLand.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2920 8137 2894 8118 2880 8159 2895 8170
      2896 8169 2896 8166 2898 8166
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 242DEG 20KT 2896 8153

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Schaper

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
555 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025

FLZ045-053-312230-
Osceola FL-Orange FL-
555 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN ORANGE AND NORTH
CENTRAL OSCEOLA COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM EDT...

At 554 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lake Hart, or near Narcoossee, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lake Hart, Austin Tindall Park, Wedgefield, Lake Nona, and
Narcoossee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2829 8126 2841 8133 2853 8108 2833 8099
TIME...MOT...LOC 2154Z 248DEG 21KT 2836 8123

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Schaper

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
606 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025

FLZ041-141-312300-
Coastal Volusia FL-Inland Volusia FL-
606 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL VOLUSIA COUNTY
THROUGH 700 PM EDT...

At 606 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Daytona Beach, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ormond Beach Airport, Ormond-By-the-Sea, Allandale, DeLand Highlands,
and Ormond Beach.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2943 8107 2914 8092 2894 8120 2920 8138
      2926 8132 2927 8115 2928 8115 2941 8116
      2942 8114 2942 8111 2943 8111
TIME...MOT...LOC 2206Z 242DEG 15KT 2919 8121

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Schaper

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