Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
359 PM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 344 PM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

- Moderate to Major HeatRisk impacts will persist through
  Wednesday

- Daily shower and storm chances, maximized in the afternoon and
  evening hours, bring the potential for gusty winds, frequent
  lightning strikes, and localized flooding

- Above normal rain chances are forecast late in the week as a
  disturbance slowly approaches the area

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 PM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

Thru Tonight...East coast sea breeze is pushing inland sparking
isolated to scattered storms. A collision with the west coast
breeze and other lake/outflow boundaries will produce an increase
in storm coverage on the east side of the peninsula during the
early evening (5-8pm) with some push back to the coast. Unlike
last night, convection should diminish by midnight. Heavy rain and
frequent lightning strikes will be the primary threats. The late
morning Cape sounding shows a drier mid layer which should support
more gusty winds than previous days so an isolated severe storm
with damaging wind is possible.

Tue-Wed...Weak ridging aloft stays put over central Florida on
Tuesday, breaking down on Wednesday as a disturbance approaches
the southeast U.S coast. The stalled surface front remains in a
similar location across north Florida, perhaps drifting closer to
the local area by the latter half of Wednesday. As a result, we
will remain in a similar pattern of hot temperatures and scattered
to numerous showers/storms. Tuesday looks to be the hottest day
of the next seven. Combined with PW of 2.1"+ in place, heat index
values will range from 103-107 in many locations. Reaching Heat
Advisory levels (108 degrees) is feasible for several sites across
the interior, so long as convection does not reach those
locations first. With a more dominant onshore flow returning
Wednesday, the east coast breeze will develop sooner and push
farther inland, taking the higher rain chances with it. Heat
indices are still forecast to hover in the 102-107 degree range
Wed afternoon. Overnight lows settle in the mid to upper 70s,
prolonging muggy conditions and offering little relief from the
daytime heat.

Thu-Sun...An elongated area of low pressure is forecast to
organize into a weak surface low off of the Carolina coast later
in the week. This is shown in the TWO with a 30% formation chance.
This disturbance is forecast to track toward the west or northwest
late week and this weekend and remain weak but produce a heavy
rain threat. Plumes of higher PW, associated with a mid level
wave, look to move over the FL Peninsula Thursday through Sunday.
Above normal rain chances are forecast as a result, maximized each
afternoon and evening along the sea breeze and storm- scale
boundary collisions. DCAPE looks less impressive in this moisture-
laden environment, so gusty winds from storms would be a result
of water-loaded downdrafts. With a few more clouds and rain
around, temperatures will settle closer to normal for this time of
year (low 90s daytime / low-mid 70s overnight). Looking ahead
into early next week, slightly lower rain chances could briefly
return as mid level energy exits toward the Gulf.

NHC has drawn a 50% formation chance for the tropical wave just
off the African coast. Their 7-day point is located at 25N 60W
which is a blend of the ECMWF and GFS ensembles, the latter of
which are farther south. We are heading into peak hurricane season
for the Atlc basin (mid Aug- mid Oct) so it is not a surprise the
tropics are becoming more active.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 344 PM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

Ridging begins to lift northward early in the week with a stationary
surface front remaining north of the local waters. SSW winds 5-10 kt
turn onshore in the afternoon as the east coast sea breeze forms
(gusts around 15 kt possible along the coast). Light winds turn ENE
Wednesday and Thursday, becoming southerly again on Friday.
Incoming swell builds seas up to 5 ft offshore tonight, followed
by decreasing seas mid to late week. Showers and storms are
forecast through the week, especially Thu-Fri as a weak low or
sharp trough approaches from the east. Locally higher winds (34+
kt) and frequent lightning strikes will accompany the most
organized activity.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 154 PM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

Earlier start to convection today with VCTS introduced at all east
central Florida terminals around 18/19Z, and the highest coverage
of showers and storms is forecast from MLB/ISM northward. TSRA
TEMPOs are first included along the coast at DAB/TIX/MLB with the
east coast sea breeze. TEMPOs are then mentioned across the
interior and greater Orlando terminals by late afternoon and into
the evening as a sea breeze collision occurs. South winds shift
southeast to east with the east coast sea breeze passage.
Lingering showers and storms continue into the evening with
VCSH/VCTS mentioned across the north. Dry overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  92  76  91 /  40  70  30  60
MCO  77  95  77  94 /  50  70  30  70
MLB  77  92  77  92 /  30  50  20  50
VRB  75  92  75  92 /  20  40  20  50
LEE  77  94  76  94 /  50  70  30  70
SFB  77  95  77  95 /  40  70  30  60
ORL  78  95  77  95 /  50  70  30  70
FPR  74  92  74  92 /  20  50  20  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Law

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
657 PM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

FLZ053-042330-
Osceola FL-
657 PM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN OSCEOLA COUNTY
THROUGH 730 PM EDT...

At 657 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Kenansville, moving northeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lake Marian, Kenansville, Forever Florida, and Deer Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2808 8087 2786 8087 2778 8104 2806 8113
      2813 8087 2808 8086
TIME...MOT...LOC 2257Z 244DEG 5KT 2796 8095

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
708 PM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

FLZ053-042345-
Osceola FL-
708 PM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL OSCEOLA COUNTY
THROUGH 745 PM EDT...

At 708 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Narcoossee, moving east at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Saint Cloud, East Lake Toho, Narcoossee, Austin Tindall Park, and
Harmony.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2835 8130 2835 8104 2810 8112 2820 8136
TIME...MOT...LOC 2308Z 284DEG 6KT 2827 8126

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
738 PM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

FLZ053-050000-
Osceola FL-
738 PM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN OSCEOLA COUNTY
THROUGH 800 PM EDT...

At 738 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Harmony, or 7 miles north of Holopaw. This thunderstorm was nearly
stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Holopaw, Harmony, and Pine Grove.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2835 8112 2834 8088 2820 8088 2811 8112
      2826 8122
TIME...MOT...LOC 2338Z 226DEG 1KT 2824 8109

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
746 PM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

FLZ045-050015-
Orange FL-
746 PM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN ORANGE COUNTY
THROUGH 815 PM EDT...

At 746 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms over Avalon Park. These storms were nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Orlando, Winter Park, Wedgefield, Avalon Park, and University Of
Central Florida.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or hard-topped vehicle. Remember, when
thunder roars, go indoors!

&&

LAT...LON 2861 8116 2861 8111 2835 8097 2835 8123
      2859 8135
TIME...MOT...LOC 2346Z 243DEG 4KT 2850 8121

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

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