Alert archive / Florida / High Surf Advisories in 2025
High Surf Advisory 2, NWS Melbourne, FL
NWS Melbourne, FL issued this high surf advisory at Aug 18, 2025, 7:45 PM EDT for 5 counties in Florida. It took effect at Aug 19, 2025, 12:00 PM EDT. It was in force for 58 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 18, 2025, 7:45 PM EDT (23:45 UTC)
- In effect from
- Aug 19, 2025, 12:00 PM EDT
- Expired
- Aug 21, 2025, 9:50 PM EDT
- In force
- 58 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Melbourne, FL
Counties Brevard County, FL, Indian River County, FL, Martin County, FL, Saint Lucie County, FL, Volusia County, FL
The radar
The Melbourne radar (KMLB), 23 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Cape Canaveral, FL (KXMR), launched 12:00Z, 11.8 hours before the alert went out and 65 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1426 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -15 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 890 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 7 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -3 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -2 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
883 WHUS42 KMLB 182345 CFWMLB Coastal Hazard Message National Weather Service Melbourne FL 745 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025 FLZ141-347-447-647-747-201200- /O.NEW.KMLB.SU.Y.0002.250819T1600Z-250822T0000Z/ /O.CON.KMLB.RP.S.0017.000000T0000Z-250822T0000Z/ Coastal Volusia-Mainland Northern Brevard- Northern Brevard Barrier Islands-Mainland Southern Brevard- Southern Brevard Barrier Islands- 745 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025 ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY... * WHAT...For the High Rip Current Risk, dangerous rip currents. For the High Surf Advisory, large breaking waves of 5 to 8 feet expected in the surf zone. * WHERE...Coastal Volusia and Coastal Brevard counties. * WHEN...For the High Rip Current Risk, through Thursday evening. For the High Surf Advisory, from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday. * IMPACTS...Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion. Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... High surf will affect the beaches in the advisory area, producing localized beach erosion and dangerous swimming conditions. Swimmers should remain out of the water due to large breaking waves and dangerous surf conditions. Rip currents are powerful channels of water flowing quickly away from shore, which occur most often at low spots or breaks in the sandbar and in the vicinity of structures such as jetties and piers. Heed the advice of lifeguards, beach patrol flags and signs. Entering the surf is strongly discouraged. If caught in a rip current, relax and float. Don't swim against the current. If able, swim in a direction following the shoreline. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. && $$ FLZ154-159-164-201200- /O.CON.KMLB.RP.S.0017.000000T0000Z-250822T0000Z/ Coastal Indian River-Coastal Saint Lucie-Coastal Martin- 745 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025 ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Dangerous rip currents. * WHERE...Coastal Indian River, Coastal Saint Lucie and Coastal Martin Counties. * WHEN...Through Thursday evening. * IMPACTS...Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Expect 3 to 6 foot breaking waves on Tuesday. A High Surf Advisory will likely be required beginning Wednesday for 5 to 8 foot breakers. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Rip currents are powerful channels of water flowing quickly away from shore, which occur most often at low spots or breaks in the sandbar and in the vicinity of structures such as jetties and piers. Heed the advice of lifeguards, beach patrol flags and signs. Entering the surf is strongly discouraged. If caught in a rip current, relax and float. Don't swim against the current. If able, swim in a direction following the shoreline. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. && $$
7 follow-up statements
576 WHUS42 KMLB 191814 CFWMLB Coastal Hazard Message National Weather Service Melbourne FL 214 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025 FLZ154-159-164-220000- /O.EXB.KMLB.SU.Y.0002.250820T0600Z-250822T0000Z/ /O.CON.KMLB.RP.S.0017.000000T0000Z-250822T0000Z/ Coastal Indian River-Coastal Saint Lucie-Coastal Martin- 214 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025 ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY... * WHAT...For the High Rip Current Risk, dangerous rip currents. For the High Surf Advisory, large breaking waves of 5 to 8 feet expected in the surf zone. * WHERE...Coastal Indian River, Coastal Saint Lucie and Coastal Martin Counties. * WHEN...For the High Rip Current Risk, through Thursday evening. For the High Surf Advisory, from 2 AM Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday. * IMPACTS...Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion. Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... High surf will affect the beaches in the advisory area, producing localized beach erosion and dangerous swimming conditions. Swimmers should remain out of the water due to large breaking waves and dangerous surf conditions. Rip currents are powerful channels of water flowing quickly away from shore, which occur most often at low spots or breaks in the sandbar and in the vicinity of structures such as jetties and piers. Heed the advice of lifeguards, beach patrol flags and signs. Entering the surf is strongly discouraged. If caught in a rip current, relax and float. Don't swim against the current. If able, swim in a direction following the shoreline. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. && $$ FLZ141-347-447-647-747-220000- /O.CON.KMLB.SU.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-250822T0000Z/ /O.CON.KMLB.RP.S.0017.000000T0000Z-250822T0000Z/ Coastal Volusia-Mainland Northern Brevard- Northern Brevard Barrier Islands-Mainland Southern Brevard- Southern Brevard Barrier Islands- 214 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025 ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY... ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... * WHAT...For the High Surf Advisory, large breaking waves of 5 to 10 feet in the surf zone. For the High Rip Current Risk, dangerous rip currents. * WHERE...Coastal Volusia, Coastal Brevard counties. * WHEN...For the High Surf Advisory, until 8 PM EDT Thursday. For the High Rip Current Risk, through Thursday evening. * IMPACTS...Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion. Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... High surf will affect the beaches in the advisory area, producing localized beach erosion and dangerous swimming conditions. Swimmers should remain out of the water due to large breaking waves and dangerous surf conditions. Rip currents are powerful channels of water flowing quickly away from shore, which occur most often at low spots or breaks in the sandbar and in the vicinity of structures such as jetties and piers. Heed the advice of lifeguards, beach patrol flags and signs. Entering the surf is strongly discouraged. If caught in a rip current, relax and float. Don't swim against the current. If able, swim in a direction following the shoreline. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. && $$
907 WHUS42 KMLB 200546 CFWMLB Coastal Hazard Message National Weather Service Melbourne FL 146 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025 FLZ141-347-447-647-747-210800- /O.EXT.KMLB.RP.S.0017.000000T0000Z-250823T0800Z/ /O.CON.KMLB.SU.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-250822T0000Z/ Coastal Volusia-Mainland Northern Brevard- Northern Brevard Barrier Islands-Mainland Southern Brevard- Southern Brevard Barrier Islands- 146 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025 ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT... ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY... * WHAT...For the High Rip Current Risk, dangerous rip currents. For the High Surf Advisory, large breaking waves of 5 to 10 feet in the surf zone. * WHERE...Coastal Volusia, Mainland Northern Brevard, Northern Brevard Barrier Islands, Mainland Southern Brevard and Southern Brevard Barrier Islands Counties. * WHEN...For the High Rip Current Risk, through late Friday night. For the High Surf Advisory, until 8 PM EDT Thursday. * IMPACTS...Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion. Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... High surf will affect the beaches in the advisory area, producing localized beach erosion and dangerous swimming conditions. Swimmers should remain out of the water due to large breaking waves and dangerous surf conditions. Rip currents are powerful channels of water flowing quickly away from shore, which occur most often at low spots or breaks in the sandbar and in the vicinity of structures such as jetties and piers. Heed the advice of lifeguards, beach patrol flags and signs. Entering the surf is strongly discouraged. If caught in a rip current, relax and float. Don't swim against the current. If able, swim in a direction following the shoreline. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. && $$ FLZ154-159-164-210800- /O.EXT.KMLB.RP.S.0017.000000T0000Z-250823T0800Z/ /O.CON.KMLB.SU.Y.0002.250820T0600Z-250822T0000Z/ Coastal Indian River-Coastal Saint Lucie-Coastal Martin- 146 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025 ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT... ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY... * WHAT...For the High Rip Current Risk, dangerous rip currents. For the High Surf Advisory, large breaking waves of 5 to 8 feet expected in the surf zone. * WHERE...Coastal Indian River, Coastal Saint Lucie and Coastal Martin Counties. * WHEN...For the High Rip Current Risk, through late Friday night. For the High Surf Advisory, until 8 PM EDT Thursday. * IMPACTS...Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion. Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... High surf will affect the beaches in the advisory area, producing localized beach erosion and dangerous swimming conditions. Swimmers should remain out of the water due to large breaking waves and dangerous surf conditions. Rip currents are powerful channels of water flowing quickly away from shore, which occur most often at low spots or breaks in the sandbar and in the vicinity of structures such as jetties and piers. Heed the advice of lifeguards, beach patrol flags and signs. Entering the surf is strongly discouraged. If caught in a rip current, relax and float. Don't swim against the current. If able, swim in a direction following the shoreline. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. && $$
000 WHUS42 KMLB 201810 CFWMLB Coastal Hazard Message National Weather Service Melbourne FL 210 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025 FLZ141-154-159-164-347-447-647-747-230800- /O.EXT.KMLB.SU.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-250822T0300Z/ /O.CON.KMLB.RP.S.0017.000000T0000Z-250823T0800Z/ Coastal Volusia-Coastal Indian River-Coastal Saint Lucie- Coastal Martin-Mainland Northern Brevard- Northern Brevard Barrier Islands-Mainland Southern Brevard- Southern Brevard Barrier Islands- 210 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025 ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THURSDAY... ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...For the High Surf Advisory, large breaking waves of 5 to 10 feet in the surf zone. For the High Rip Current Risk, dangerous rip currents. * WHERE...Coastal Volusia, Coastal Indian River, Coastal Saint Lucie, Coastal Martin and Coastal Brevard. * WHEN...For the High Surf Advisory, until 11 PM EDT Thursday. For the High Rip Current Risk, through late Friday night. * IMPACTS...Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion. Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... High surf will affect the beaches in the advisory area, producing localized beach erosion and dangerous swimming conditions. Swimmers should remain out of the water due to large breaking waves and dangerous surf conditions. Rip currents are powerful channels of water flowing quickly away from shore, which occur most often at low spots or breaks in the sandbar and in the vicinity of structures such as jetties and piers. Heed the advice of lifeguards, beach patrol flags and signs. Entering the surf is strongly discouraged. If caught in a rip current, relax and float. Don't swim against the current. If able, swim in a direction following the shoreline. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. && $$
351 WHUS42 KMLB 210549 CFWMLB Coastal Hazard Message National Weather Service Melbourne FL 149 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025 FLZ141-154-159-164-347-447-647-747-220800- /O.CON.KMLB.SU.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-250822T0300Z/ /O.CON.KMLB.RP.S.0017.000000T0000Z-250823T0800Z/ Coastal Volusia-Coastal Indian River-Coastal Saint Lucie- Coastal Martin-Mainland Northern Brevard- Northern Brevard Barrier Islands-Mainland Southern Brevard- Southern Brevard Barrier Islands- 149 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025 ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING... ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...For the High Surf Advisory, large breaking waves of 5 to 7 feet in the surf zone. For the High Rip Current Risk, dangerous rip currents. * WHERE...Coastal Volusia, Coastal Indian River, Coastal Saint Lucie, Coastal Martin and Coastal Brevard. * WHEN...For the High Surf Advisory, until 11 PM EDT this evening. For the High Rip Current Risk, through late Friday night. * IMPACTS...Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion. Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... High surf will affect the beaches in the advisory area, producing localized beach erosion and dangerous swimming conditions. Swimmers should remain out of the water due to large breaking waves and dangerous surf conditions. Rip currents are powerful channels of water flowing quickly away from shore, which occur most often at low spots or breaks in the sandbar and in the vicinity of structures such as jetties and piers. Heed the advice of lifeguards, beach patrol flags and signs. Entering the surf is strongly discouraged. If caught in a rip current, relax and float. Don't swim against the current. If able, swim in a direction following the shoreline. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. && $$
997 WHUS42 KMLB 211850 CFWMLB Coastal Hazard Message National Weather Service Melbourne FL 250 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025 FLZ141-154-159-164-347-447-647-747-220300- /O.CON.KMLB.SU.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-250822T0300Z/ /O.CON.KMLB.RP.S.0017.000000T0000Z-250823T0800Z/ Coastal Volusia-Coastal Indian River-Coastal Saint Lucie- Coastal Martin-Mainland Northern Brevard- Northern Brevard Barrier Islands-Mainland Southern Brevard- Southern Brevard Barrier Islands- 250 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025 ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING... ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...For the High Surf Advisory, large breaking waves of 3 to 5 feet in the surf zone. For the High Rip Current Risk, dangerous rip currents. * WHERE...Coastal Volusia, Coastal Indian River, Coastal Saint Lucie, Coastal Martin, and Coastal Brevard Counties. * WHEN...For the High Surf Advisory, until 11 PM EDT this evening. For the High Rip Current Risk, through late Friday night. * IMPACTS...Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion. Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... High surf will affect the beaches in the advisory area, producing localized beach erosion and dangerous swimming conditions. Swimmers should remain out of the water due to large breaking waves and dangerous surf conditions. Rip currents are powerful channels of water flowing quickly away from shore, which occur most often at low spots or breaks in the sandbar and in the vicinity of structures such as jetties and piers. Heed the advice of lifeguards, beach patrol flags and signs. Entering the surf is strongly discouraged. If caught in a rip current, relax and float. Don't swim against the current. If able, swim in a direction following the shoreline. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. && $$
283 WHUS42 KMLB 211903 CFWMLB Coastal Hazard Message National Weather Service Melbourne FL 303 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025 FLZ141-154-159-164-347-447-647-747-220300- /O.CON.KMLB.SU.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-250822T0300Z/ /O.CON.KMLB.RP.S.0017.000000T0000Z-250823T0800Z/ Coastal Volusia-Coastal Indian River-Coastal Saint Lucie- Coastal Martin-Mainland Northern Brevard- Northern Brevard Barrier Islands-Mainland Southern Brevard- Southern Brevard Barrier Islands- 303 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025 ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING... ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...For the High Surf Advisory, large breaking waves around to 5 feet in the surf zone. For the High Rip Current Risk, dangerous rip currents. * WHERE...Coastal Volusia, Coastal Indian River, Coastal Saint Lucie, Coastal Martin, and Coastal Brevard Counties. * WHEN...For the High Surf Advisory, until 11 PM EDT this evening. For the High Rip Current Risk, through late Friday night. * IMPACTS...Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion. Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... High surf will affect the beaches in the advisory area, producing localized beach erosion and dangerous swimming conditions. Swimmers should remain out of the water due to large breaking waves and dangerous surf conditions. Rip currents are powerful channels of water flowing quickly away from shore, which occur most often at low spots or breaks in the sandbar and in the vicinity of structures such as jetties and piers. Heed the advice of lifeguards, beach patrol flags and signs. Entering the surf is strongly discouraged. If caught in a rip current, relax and float. Don't swim against the current. If able, swim in a direction following the shoreline. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. && $$
567 WHUS42 KMLB 220150 CFWMLB Coastal Hazard Message National Weather Service Melbourne FL 950 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025 FLZ141-154-159-164-347-447-647-747-230800- /O.CAN.KMLB.SU.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-250822T0300Z/ /O.CON.KMLB.RP.S.0017.000000T0000Z-250823T0800Z/ Coastal Volusia-Coastal Indian River-Coastal Saint Lucie- Coastal Martin-Mainland Northern Brevard- Northern Brevard Barrier Islands-Mainland Southern Brevard- Southern Brevard Barrier Islands- 950 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025 ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT... ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... * WHAT...Dangerous rip currents. * WHERE...Coastal Volusia, Coastal Indian River, Coastal Saint Lucie, Coastal Martin, and Coastal Brevard Counties. * WHEN...Through late Friday night. * IMPACTS...Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Rip currents are powerful channels of water flowing quickly away from shore, which occur most often at low spots or breaks in the sandbar and in the vicinity of structures such as jetties and piers. Heed the advice of lifeguards, beach patrol flags and signs. Entering the surf is strongly discouraged. If caught in a rip current, relax and float. Don't swim against the current. If able, swim in a direction following the shoreline. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. && $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this high surf advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Melbourne, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this high surf advisory went out at Aug 18, 7:20 PM EDT, 25 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025
- Incoming swells from Major Hurricane Erin will bring a HIGH risk of rip currents through the week.
- Rough pounding surf as swells build Tuesday through Wednesday bring minor beach and dune erosion with 5-8 foot breakers.
- Dangerous boating conditions are forecast through much of this week as seas are slow to subside behind Erin.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 18, 7:20 PM EDT, 25 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
720 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025
- Incoming swells from Major Hurricane Erin will bring a HIGH risk
of rip currents through the week.
- Rough pounding surf as swells build Tuesday through Wednesday
bring minor beach and dune erosion with 5-8 foot breakers.
- Dangerous boating conditions are forecast through much of this
week as seas are slow to subside behind Erin.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025
Rest of Today-Tonight...Northeasterly flow across east central
Florida has allowed for an easy push inland of the east coast sea
breeze this afternoon, with visible satellite imagery indicating
that the sea breeze has pushed west of I-95 as of 3 PM. Isolated
shower and storm activity is popping up across the area, with
increasing coverage anticipated across the far interior late
afternoon into this evening as the sea breeze collision occurs. CAM
guidance continues to favor the greatest coverage near and west of
the Florida Turnpike. Weak steering flow aloft favors a greater
rainfall threat with activity, though frequent lightning strikes and
gusts to 50 mph cannot be ruled out. Minor flooding in low-lying and
urban areas with poor drainage will be possible with stronger storms
that have little movement or across areas that see repeated rounds
of rainfall. Activity is forecast to move towards the southwest and
away from the forecast area into the evening hours, with isolated
showers and storms not able to be fully ruled out into the overnight
hours across the local Atlantic waters.
Distant Hurricane Erin continues to cause building seas and swells
across the local Atlantic waters, resulting in deteriorating beach
and boating conditions through the remainder of today and into the
overnight hours. A high risk of rip currents will continue through
the overnight hours and surf conditions will also begin to
deteriorate overnight as breaking waves increase to 4 to 5 feet.
Entering the surf, especially at night, is extremely discouraged.
Tuesday-Wednesday...While Hurricane Erin is forecast to remain well
east of the Florida peninsula, its effects will be felt locally,
primarily in the form of deteriorating beach and boating conditions.
Increasing seas and swells from Hurricane Erin will lead to an
ongoing high risk of rip currents along with deteriorating surf
conditions. Breaking waves of 5 to 8 feet will be possible at the
beaches, and there is the potential for minor beach and dune
erosion, particularly during the high tide cycles between 5 and 7 AM
and PM. A High Surf Advisory will likely be needed starting sometime
on Tuesday afternoon based on the latest guidance. Overall, there
will be dangerous conditions at the local beaches and entering the
surf is not advised.
Aside from the deteriorating beach and boating conditions, the
pressure gradient from Major Hurricane Erin will lead to increasing
north to northeast winds on Tuesday that back to out of the north-
northwest on Wednesday. Sustained winds of 10 to 20 mph are forecast
locally, with gusts up to 30 mph possible along the coast. There is
some hints of slightly lower rain chances across east central
Florida on Tuesday as a result of subsidence from Erin coupled with
a building area of high pressure locally, but still kept rain
chances around 40 to 50 percent. By Wednesday, as Erin moves farther
north and away from the area, moisture returns a bit with PoPs
increasing to 50 to 60 percent. Storms cannot be ruled out with
any activity that develops, with lightning strikes, gusty winds,
and heavy downpours remaining the primary storm hazards through
Wednesday. Activity is forecast to diminish into the overnight
hours each day, with some isolated activity along the coast not
able to be fully ruled out. Temperatures remain warm, with highs
in the low 90s and overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. Peak heat
indices remain just below Heat Advisory criteria at 100 to 105.
Thursday-Sunday...A mid and surface level ridge is forecast to build
just south of the Florida peninsula as Hurricane Erin moves
northeastward out to sea. This set-up will result in prevailing
light offshore flow locally, with a return of moisture forecast
through the end of this week and into the weekend. The light
offshore flow will allow for easy progression inland of the east
coast sea breeze, with the sea breeze collision favored for the
eastern side of the state. Based on this, kept PoPs 50-70% in the
extended period with a 50% chance of storms each afternoon. Warm
conditions persist through the period, with highs in the low 90s and
peak heat indices 100 to 105. Lows generally in the low to mid 70s
across east central Florida.
At the beaches, conditions will be slow to improve as Hurricane Erin
moves away from the area. A high risk of rip currents is anticipated
at the beaches through most of this week, and potentially into the
weekend. Caution should continue to be exercised if planning on
heading to the beaches this upcoming weekend, and heeding the advice
of local beach safety officials is strongly encouraged.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025
Deteriorating boating conditions are forecast across the local
Atlantic waters as Hurricane Erin moves northward far east of east
central Florida. North to northeast winds increase to 15 to 20 knots
on Tuesday, with gusts to 30 knots possible. Winds then back to out
of the north-northwest into Wednesday. Seas are forecast to increase
over the next several days, with nearshore seas peaking at 6 to 11
feet and offshore seas peaking at 9 to 15 feet on Wednesday. While
Erin is forecast to move away from the area late this week and winds
weaken to 10 to 15 knots, seas will be slow to improve across the
local waters. A Small Craft Advisory goes into effect for the
offshore Volusia and Brevard waters at 8 PM tonight, expands to the
nearshore waters and offshore Treasure Coast waters at 8 AM on
Tuesday, and finally includes the nearshore Treasure Coast waters
starting at 8 PM on Tuesday. The current advisory is issued through
Thursday evening, but based on the latest guidance, extensions in
time will likely be needed.
Outside of the dangerous boating conditions, there is a 40 to 60
percent chance of showers and storms across the local Atlantic
waters each day and into the overnight hours. Lightning strikes,
gusty winds, and heavy downpours will be possible with any storms
that develop.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 720 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025
VFR-dominant conditions outside of convection. Overall coverage of
storms looks lower over the next 24 hours. However, we do expect
some showers and/or isolated storms overnight along the coastal
terminals, and VCTS over the Orlando area in the afternoon on
Tuesday. Coverage remains below 50%. NE winds increase on Tuesday
with gusts 15-25 KT, highest along the coast.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 78 90 77 90 / 20 40 30 60
MCO 77 93 77 94 / 20 50 10 60
MLB 79 91 77 92 / 20 50 30 60
VRB 77 93 75 93 / 20 50 30 60
LEE 77 92 77 92 / 20 40 10 60
SFB 77 92 77 92 / 20 50 20 60
ORL 77 93 77 93 / 20 50 10 60
FPR 75 93 74 93 / 20 50 30 60
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Tuesday to 11 PM EDT Thursday for
AMZ550-552-575.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Tuesday to 11 PM EDT Thursday for
AMZ555.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ570-572.
&&
DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...HeilIn the hours before
Special weather statement, Aug 18, 4:21 PM EDT, 3 hours 24 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
421 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025
FLZ144-182100-
Southern Lake County FL-
421 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN LAKE COUNTY THROUGH
500 PM EDT...
At 421 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Groveland, moving west at 5 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Groveland, Mascotte, and Clermont.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 2860 8196 2860 8177 2844 8175 2842 8196
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 078DEG 6KT 2851 8188
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH
SchaperSpecial weather statement, Aug 18, 4:50 PM EDT, 2 hours 55 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
450 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025
FLZ045-053-182115-
Osceola FL-Orange FL-
450 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN ORANGE AND
NORTHWESTERN OSCEOLA COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM EDT...
At 449 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Hunters Creek, or near Kissimmee. This thunderstorm was nearly
stationary.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Orlando, Kissimmee, Windermere, Bay Lake, and Celebration.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Excessive cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter immediately inside a building or hard-topped vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 2850 8159 2856 8143 2820 8134 2819 8152
2820 8152 2826 8156 2826 8157
TIME...MOT...LOC 2049Z 008DEG 1KT 2835 8147
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
SchaperSpecial weather statement, Aug 18, 5:43 PM EDT, 2 hours 2 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
543 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025
FLZ045-046-182215-
Orange FL-Seminole FL-
543 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN SEMINOLE AND
SOUTHWESTERN ORANGE COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM EDT...
At 543 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Pine Castle, or over Orlando, moving northeast at 10 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Orlando, Altamonte Springs, Winter Park, Maitland, and Windermere.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Excessive cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter immediately inside a building or hard-topped vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 2871 8143 2841 8116 2835 8125 2835 8140
2848 8152
TIME...MOT...LOC 2143Z 220DEG 9KT 2848 8138
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
SchaperThe office that day
Everything else NWS Melbourne, FL issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2:15 AM EDT | Small Craft Advisory | MLB | 4 days | |
| Aug 18, 4:21 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | MLB | Sumter | 39 min |
| Aug 18, 4:50 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | MLB | Orange | 25 min |
| Aug 18, 5:35 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | MLB | Orange | 55 min |
| Aug 18, 5:43 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | MLB | Orange | 32 min |
Nearby
High Surf Advisories in Florida, 2025Every high surf advisory in 2025
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.