Special Weather Statement, NWS Milwaukee, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
301 PM CDT Sat Aug 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms expected across the area this
afternoon/evening, with additional development possible after
midnight. A few storms could be strong with damaging winds through
this evening, with torrential downpours accompanying all storms.

- Additional periods of storms expected Sunday afternoon into
Monday, posing additional heavy rainfall potential. A Flood Watch
remains in effect through 7 AM Monday morning for areas northwest of
Milwaukee.

- Hot and humid through the rest of this afternoon, with heat
indices in the upper 90s to near 100 over southeast Wisconsin.

- High swimming risk continues into this evening at all Lake
  Michigan beaches.&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 300 PM CDT Sat Aug 9 2025

Tonight through Sunday night:

Synopsis/Mesoanalysis: A weak surface boundary is working into
southern Wisconsin this afternoon, encouraging shower and storm
development from the Madison metro north into the Fox River Valley.
Lift from the surface boundary is being further supported by subtle
MCV extending from central Wisconsin into the Wisconsin River
Valley, with an additional MCV apparent over the Waterloo, IA
vicinity. Expect shower and storm activity to continue sagging south
and east with the surface boundary through the remainder of the
afternoon, with additional storm development anticipated this
evening as the Waterloo MCV tracks into southern Wisconsin. An
isolated strong to severe storm is possible in this activity, with
damaging winds being the primary concern. A brief lull may follow
the evening activity, with additional storm development anticipated
after midnight as the low level jet ramps up. Torrential downpours
will be possible in this evening's & overnight's storms, which could
lead to hydro impacts across the area, with the greatest potential
for impacts (particularly any flash flooding) in areas experiencing
multiple rounds of storms. Additional storm development is
anticipated Sunday afternoon into Monday morning, with development
corridors being highly dependent on MCV's & where the progressing
surface boundary settles following tonight's convection. Additional
torrential downpours and flooding potential will exist in these
storms, with potential once more being maximized in areas of
training. A Flood Watch remains in effect through 7 AM Monday to the
northwest of the Milwaukee metro, where training potential will be
greatest.

Rest Of This Afternoon & Tonight: Heat and humidity will continue,
with heat indices in the upper 90s over southeastern Wisconsin. A
few spots will briefly climb to the 100 degree mark over this part
of the area. A high swimming risk continues through the first part
of this evening at Ozaukee and Sheboygan County beaches, with a
moderate swimming risk further south. Exercise extreme caution if
heading lakeside through this evening.

Quigley

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 300 PM CDT Sat Aug 9 2025

Monday through Saturday:

Synopsis: The surface boundary at the center of the short term's
shower and storm chances will linger across southern Wisconsin
during the Monday-Tuesday timeframe, supporting additional periods
of showers and thunderstorms. Much like in the short term period,
weak wind shear should keep severe potential lower in any Monday-
Tuesday activity, though a still very humid air mass will support
additional torrential downpour potential (particularly on Monday).
Additional hydrologic impacts are thus possible in early week
thunderstorms, particularly in regions experiencing repeated rounds
of heavy rainfall. What's left of the surface boundary will push
east of the region Tuesday night, resulting in a brief period of
west-northwest winds & slightly less humid conditions through
Wednesday. The briefly lower humidity will be short-lived, as re-
establishing south-southeasterly winds will push dew points upward
Wednesday night through Saturday. Additional periods of showers and
storms return to the forecast during this time period as
temperatures gradually trend upward.

Monday through Tuesday: With a surface boundary still draped across
the area, additional periods of showers and embedded storms are
forecast. Chances for storms are overall higher Monday relative to
Tuesday (~40-60% Monday compared to ~15-30% Tuesday), with activity
expected to shutdown entirely by Tuesday night as the responsible
boundary pushes east of the region. Shear will remain weak through
the entirety of this time frame, making severe potential overall low
in any storm development. Still elevated humidity & precipitable
waters pooled along the surface boundary, however, will support the
continued possibility for heavy downpours. Could thus continue to
see more minor hydro impacts (urban/small stream flooding, small
rises on area rivers/creeks) through Tuesday afternoon. Have
maintained the 12Z Monday end time of the Flood Watch in this
forecast, but will continue to monitor trends in the coming
updates.

Quigley

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 300 PM CDT Sat Aug 9 2025

VFR conditions continue into this afternoon at all southern
Wisconsin terminals. Already reflected in current observations,
southerly winds will become gusty through early evening. SHRA and
TSRA development remains likely this afternoon and evening as a
surface front slowly sags into southern Wisconsin. Have continued
prevailing mentions at all terminals in the 15Z update, and will
continue to monitor timing trends. Precip will be accompanied by
reduced VIS readings, which will result in temporary reductions in
flight categories. Periods of SHRA & TSRA will continue into the
overnight hours, with CIGs gradually lowering approaching daybreak
on Sunday.

Quigley

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 300 PM CDT Sat Aug 9 2025

1002 mb low pressure will linger across Manitoba into this evening,
with 1024 mb high pressure remaining centered over the Mid-Atlantic
states. Placed between the two surface features, breezy southerly
winds will continue across the open waters through the first half of
tonight. Prevailing southerlies will gradually decrease after
midnight as the aforementioned surface high migrates east into the
Atlantic Ocean. Generally southerly winds will continue into the day
on Sunday as a weak surface front moves into western Wisconsin,
ultimately stopping short of the open waters. Periods of showers and
storms are forecast this evening through Sunday night. Widespread
severe weather is not expected, though a few storms could produce
brief gusty winds. Winds will trend south to southwesterly during
the day Monday as 1002 mb low pressure moves into the Hudson Bay.

Breezy southerly winds will continue in nearshore zones through the
rest of this afternoon, with widespread 22-25 knot gusts
anticipated. The gusts will be accompanied by elevated wave heights,
particularly from Port Washington and points north. Gusts and wave
heights will gradually taper from south to north through this
evening, with decreasing trends continuing after midnight. A Small
Craft Advisory thus remains in effect until 7 PM CDT from Port
Washington south to Winthrop Harbor, and until 10 PM CDT from Port
Washington to Sheboygan. Periods of showers and thunderstorms are
forecast this evening through early Monday morning. A few storms
could produce gusty winds, particularly this evening.

Quigley

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ052-WIZ060 until 10 PM Saturday.

     Flood Watch...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057-WIZ058-
     WIZ059-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069 until 7
     AM Monday.

LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643 until 10 PM Saturday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 7 PM
     Saturday.

&&

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
221 PM CDT Sat Aug 9 2025

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-101930-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
221 PM CDT Sat Aug 9 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A High Swim Risk is expected at Ozaukee and Sheboygan County
beaches, and a Moderate Swim Risk is in effect for Milwaukee,
Racine, and Kenosha Counties through early evening. Breaking waves
and currents are expected. Stay away from dangerous areas, such
as piers, breakwalls, and river outlets. Swimming is not advised
in areas of high swim risk.

A Flood Watch is in effect for the potential for flash flooding
mainly north and west of the Milwaukee metro area for this
evening into Monday morning. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms
with heavy rain are forecast. Damaging thunderstorm wind gusts are
also possible, especially through early evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Saturday

A Flood Watch will remain in effect for the potential for flash
flooding mainly north and west of the Milwaukee metro area into
Monday morning. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms with heavy rain
are forecast.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

LMZ643>646-101930-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
221 PM CDT Sat Aug 9 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from
Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through this evening.

Thunderstorm chances return this evening. A few storms could
produce gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Saturday

Thunderstorm chances linger into next week.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-101930-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
221 PM CDT Sat Aug 9 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorm chances return tonight. A few storms could produce
gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Saturday

Thunderstorm chances linger into next week.

www.weather.gov/mkx

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
117 PM CDT Sat Aug 9 2025

WIZ046-047-056-057-091900-
Columbia WI-Green Lake WI-Marquette WI-Sauk WI-
117 PM CDT Sat Aug 9 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT GREEN LAKE...COLUMBIA...MARQUETTE
AND SAUK COUNTIES THROUGH 200 PM CDT...

At 116 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles north of Westfield to 11 miles
northeast of Spring Green. Movement was northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Baraboo, Portage, Reedsburg, Berlin, Columbus, Prairie Du Sac, Sauk
City, Wisconsin Dells, Lake Wisconsin, Lodi, Lake Delton, Poynette,
Pardeeville, Randolph, Fall River, Montello, Markesan, West Baraboo,
Westfield, and Princeton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4398 8889 4364 8889 4363 8901 4329 8901
      4329 8971 4324 8977 4320 9017 4364 8990
      4364 8960 4398 8960
TIME...MOT...LOC 1816Z 243DEG 42KT 4401 8948 4332 8997

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

BOXELL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
246 PM CDT Sat Aug 9 2025

WIZ058-092030-
Dodge WI-
246 PM CDT Sat Aug 9 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN DODGE COUNTY
THROUGH 330 PM CDT...

At 246 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Fall River, or near Columbus, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Beaver Dam, Waupun, Columbus, Lomira, Burnett, Fox Lake, Brownsville,
Danville, South Beaver Dam, Atwater, Astico, and Leipsig.

This includes U.S. Highway 151 between mile markers 120 and 146.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4327 8901 4345 8901 4363 8897 4363 8844
TIME...MOT...LOC 1946Z 221DEG 17KT 4339 8896

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

BOXELL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
306 PM CDT Sat Aug 9 2025

WIZ051-052-058-059-063>065-092030-
Dodge WI-Waukesha WI-Sheboygan WI-Washington WI-Fond Du Lac WI-
Jefferson WI-Dane WI-
306 PM CDT Sat Aug 9 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN FOND DU LAC...
NORTHWESTERN WAUKESHA...SOUTHEASTERN DANE...WASHINGTON...JEFFERSON...
EASTERN DODGE AND SOUTHWESTERN SHEBOYGAN COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM
CDT...

At 304 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms
developing along a line extending from near Theresa to near
Stoughton. This line of development is moving southeast at 25 mph.
Once storms develop individual storms will move to the northeast.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
West Bend, Watertown, Hartford, Stoughton, Fort Atkinson, Jefferson,
Lake Mills, Edgerton, Mayville, Slinger, Kewaskum, Horicon, Waterloo,
Juneau, Okauchee Lake, Oconomowoc, Johnson Creek, Lomira, Deerfield,
and Campbellsport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4364 8788 4354 8799 4354 8804 4350 8804
      4284 8879 4285 8934 4365 8846
TIME...MOT...LOC 2004Z 286DEG 22KT 4352 8838 4295 8921

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

BOXELL