Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
300 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will rebuild into the area Tuesday and Wednesday,
while another low pressure and/or cold front moves into the
region by late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Mon...Waning instability this evening will translate
to a decrease in storm coverage and intensity. By this evening,
showers and some embedded storms will be relegated to the OBX
zones, while interior areas see a drying and cooling trend as
cool front sweeps through from the west. Attention will turn to
patchy fog away from the coast overnight towards sunrise, as
areas that received rain today could lead to a enhanced chances
for fog. Will defer to later shifts to hone in on fog
developement.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Mon...Much drier air for your Tue as TD's will only
be in the 50s for most, 60s coast. This will limit precip
chances, with only a very iso chc (20%) for the nern mainland
zones in the afternoon. Pleasant RH's as a result of the drier
air, and high temps near climo around 80 for most interior
zones and 70s for the coast. Coolest night of the period for Tue
night as the dry airmass and mo clear skies lead to lows well
down into the 50s (60s beaches).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 4 AM Monday...Dampening shortwave ridging traverses the
area Wednesday, but but a southern stream shortwave and
deepening northern stream trough will potentially bring periods
of unsettled weather to the region as we move to the latter half
of the work week. Another upper level cut off low will move
into the Southern states next weekend and could continue to
bring unsettled weather across the area. 05/00z guidance now has
the northern stream trough stronger with a cut off low briefly
developing across the central Mid-Atlantic state Friday into
Saturday with a weaker upper low/trough across the South. As is
typical with amplified patterns and cut off lows, guidance is
not in best agreement with the evolution and timing of the late
week systems leading below average confidence. Temps look to be
near seasonal norms through Thursday, then a few degrees below
normal Friday through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/...
As of 2 PM Monday...Tstorm chances quickly dwindle as the sun
sets, bringing mostly clear skies and light to calm winds
tonight. This brings another night of potential fog inland
tonight, but confidence is lower as drier air will advect in,
and have left fog mention out of the TAF's attm. Later shifts
will reevaluate.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Friday/...
As of 430 AM Monday...The upper low lifts out late Tuesday and
Wednesday bringing pred VFR conditions but could see late
night/early morning fog bringing sub-VFR conditions. Precip
chances increase Thursday into Friday with periods of sub-VFR
conditions possible.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tue night/...
As of 3 PM Mon...Srly winds of 10-20 kt cont through tonight
ahead of approaching front. Some showers and storms through the
overnight for the coastal areas, with perhaps a stronger storm.
Mostly dry for Tue, with light srly winds of 5-15 kt and seas of
2-4 ft.

LONG TERM /Wed through Friday/...
As of 445 AM Monday...A stalled boundary will linger along the
coast early Tuesday before pushing offshore late Tuesday and
Tuesday night. Winds will remain southerly around 10-15 kt, then
expect winds to become westerly around 10 kt or less behind the
front Tuesday night into Wednesday before backing to south to
southwesterly late Wednesday and Thursday. A cold front will
push south across the waters Thursday night with northerly winds
around 10-20 kt developing Friday. Seas generally 2-4 ft
through Thursday night, then build to 4-6 ft Friday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196-
     204-205.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...SK/ZC
AVIATION...SK/TL
MARINE...SK/TL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1133 AM EDT Mon May 5 2025

NCZ203-061545-
Northern Outer Banks-
1133 AM EDT Mon May 5 2025

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Moderate Rip Current Risk.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ046-047-081-092-094-194-198-061545-
Tyrrell-Mainland Dare-Mainland Hyde-Jones-Pamlico-Southern Craven-
Inland Onslow-
1133 AM EDT Mon May 5 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a threat for strong to marginally severe thunderstorms this
afternoon into early evening. Main threats strong winds and large
hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ029-044-045-079-080-090-091-193-061545-
Martin-Pitt-Washington-Greene-Beaufort-Duplin-Lenoir-Northern Craven-
1133 AM EDT Mon May 5 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop this
afternoon into early evening. Main threats are damaging wind gusts
and large hail. An isolated tornado is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ196-205-061545-
East Carteret-Hatteras Island-
1133 AM EDT Mon May 5 2025

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING NORTH OF
CAPE LOOKOUT...
...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING NORTH OF
CAPE HATTERAS...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.
   Moderate Rip Current Risk.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ204-061545-
Ocracoke Island-
1133 AM EDT Mon May 5 2025

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ195-199-061545-
West Carteret-Coastal Onslow-
1133 AM EDT Mon May 5 2025

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Moderate Rip Current Risk.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
259 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025

NCZ090-051945-
Duplin NC-
259 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT DUPLIN COUNTY THROUGH 345 PM
EDT...

At 258 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles north of Harrells to Penderlea.
Movement was northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Chinquapin, Warsaw, Teachey, Beulaville, Lyman, Rose Hill, Magnolia,
Greenevers, Kenansville, Sarecta, Wallace, Bowdens, and Harrells.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
eastern North Carolina.

&&

LAT...LON 3490 7815 3507 7816 3506 7794 3499 7775
      3472 7772 3472 7796 3471 7798 3473 7802
      3473 7803 3472 7811 3471 7813 3472 7815
      3474 7820
TIME...MOT...LOC 1858Z 220DEG 18KT 3482 7816 3467 7807

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

ZC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
300 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025

NCZ029-044-051945-
Martin NC-Pitt NC-
300 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL PITT AND
NORTHWESTERN MARTIN COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EDT...

At 300 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Bethel, or 12 miles southeast of Tarboro, moving north at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Oak City, Parmele, Hamilton, Bethel, Robersonville, Hassell, and Gold
Point.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
eastern North Carolina.

&&

LAT...LON 3606 7732 3601 7721 3599 7721 3599 7720
      3596 7719 3595 7720 3594 7720 3570 7729
      3571 7751 3576 7752 3580 7747 3581 7742
      3583 7741 3583 7739 3582 7735 3591 7734
      3600 7741 3607 7733
TIME...MOT...LOC 1900Z 182DEG 15KT 3578 7740

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

SGK

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