River Flood Warning 4, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
Issued by National Weather Service Wilmington NC
700 AM EDT Tue May 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving low will continue to bring an extended period of
unsettled weather to the area through mid week. This system will
eventually weaken and dissipate by then, with a ridge of high
pressure building in behind it by late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 4 AM Tuesday...

Heavy rain and isolated thunderstorms within a plume of deep
moisture this morning will begin to shift eastward through the late
morning and afternoon. While the flooding threat will continue
through much of today for the sounds and OBX, intrusion of a gradual
dry slot will bring lower rain rates and, eventually, drier weather
to western counties this afternoon. Models have been increasingly
progressive with drier air, pushing most of the activity offshore by
mid morning. As such, I have heavily favored the HREF for the
afternoon timing of showers and storms.

Intrusion of dry air aloft and height falls will maintain
instability through the afternoon, even after the fire hose of 150+%
climatological PWATs move offshore. The Storm Prediction Center has
issued a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather for both
the morning and afternoon time frame.

Saturated profiles with weak low level turning will continue a
threat of tornadoes through the early afternoon (also worth
mentioning a threat of flooding in training storms).

Isolated thunderstorms east of I-95 this afternoon will be working
with similar bulk shear parameters, but low level helicity should
decrease slightly. Pulse or multi-cellular convection could lead to
a damaging wind or marginal hail threat.

Overall, expect a better chance of severe weather over the eastern
half of the CWA where shear, lift, instability, and moisture align
during the late morning with less confidence in afternoon convection
for inland areas. Light boundary layer winds and saturated soils
could lead to areas of patchy fog on Wednesday morning barring cloud
cover this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 4 AM Tuesday...

Wednesday... Behind the exiting dry slot, moisture advection
returns within an upper low. As the trough of the upper low
shifts eastward on Wednesday, instability and increased moisture
should lead to widespread showers and storms. Confidence is
relatively high that thunderstorms will occur with this trough
axis as it moves through eastern NC during peak heating. Rain
rates won't be as high as previous days, but instability and
shear should be sufficient for a low-end severe weather threat.
As such, SPC has included the area in a Marginal Risk (Level 1
of 5) for severe storms. Showers and storms move to the coastal
waters and OBX on Wednesday evening and Wednesday night.

Thursday... Subsidence following the shortwave on Thursday
should reduce afternoon storm coverage considerably compared to
previous days. However, westerly flow and temperatures in the
upper 80s to near 90 could lead to isolated or scattered storms
during the afternoon. This will be especially true where
convergence is maximized along a pinned sea breeze.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 4 AM Tuesday...

Ridging continues on Friday allowing temperatures to climb into
the 90s. Divergence aloft will focus showers and thunderstorms
over the southern Ohio Valley and eastward toward the Mid
Atlantic on Friday afternoon. With the ridge degrading and the
upper level energy dispersing southward, I have maintained the
30% PoP suggested by NBM on Friday afternoon and Friday evening.
Typically in these patterns, the ridge holds a little longer
than initially depicted, so expect some forecast changes in
future updates.

Zonal flow within the same air mass is likely to bring some of
the warmest temperatures of the year on Saturday. Downslope flow
will push highs into the lower 90s with dew points still in the
upper 60s. Isolated showers and storms will be possible during
the afternoon. A series of cold fronts will approach the area
late this weekend and early next week as we gradually settle
into a pattern of NW flow.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 6Z Wednesday/...
As of 700 AM Tuesday...
A healthy mass of showers with embedded thunderstorms continues
to push north and east across the region this morning. Periodic
IFR this morning (primarily in VIS restrictions due to heavy
rain) will gradually become MVFR from SW to NE. During the
afternoon CIGs will lift or erode, becoming VFR. Pulse
convection is possible this afternoon, primarily inland but
confidence is low.

With saturated soils and light boundary layer winds tonight,
patchy fog is possible. This will depend on evening cloud cover.
The best chance of fog would be away from the coast.

LONG TERM /Wednesday Morning through Saturday/...
As of 120 AM Tuesday... Sub-VFR conditions possible in
widespread showers and thunderstorms possible on Wednesday as an
upper trough moves through the region. Shower chances decrease
late this week and into the weekend, but isolated to scattered
coverage will be possible each day (primarily during the
afternoon).

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/...
As of 4 AM Tuesday... Winds increase this afternoon as dry air
returns behind a line of showers and storms. Seas will increase
from 4-6 feet this morning to 6-8 feet today. Conditions will
begin to improve tonight.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Friday/...
As of 4 AM Tuesday... SW winds are expected on Wednesday
morning, decreasing throughout the day. Seas will also begin to
improve, decreasing to around 3-4 feet by the afternoon.
Pleasant boating conditions for the end of the work week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 4 AM Tue...A large swath of the southwestern portion of
the CWA has seen rainfall totals between 3 and 6 inches with a
few areas up to 8 inches. Additional rainfall is expected early
this morning and through the early afternoon. Most of the heavy
precipitation should shift into the eastern CWA late this
morning and this afternoon where rainfall totals are lighter.
Despite this, the flooding rain threat will continue today. A
Flood Watch remains in effect for the entire CWA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
Due to a system upgrade, NOAA Weather Radio from the following
transmitters will be off the air starting 730 AM Monday May 12th
through Wednesday May 14th.

New Bern, NC, KEC84 at 162.400 MHz.
Cape Hatteras, NC, KIG-77 at 162.475 MHz.
Marnie, NC, WWH-26 at 162.425 MHz.
Warsaw, NC, KXI-5 at 162.425 MHz.

Visit www.weather.gov/mhx for the latest forecast information
during the temporary outage. Our internet will NOT be impacted
by the upgrade.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch through late tonight for NCZ029-044>047-080-081-
     094-193>196-203>205.
     Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ079-090>092-
     198-199.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ195-196-
     199-203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ135-
     231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ156-158.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MHX
SHORT TERM...MHX
LONG TERM...MHX
AVIATION...MHX
MARINE...MHX
HYDROLOGY...MHX
EQUIPMENT...MHX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
Issued by National Weather Service Wilmington NC
406 AM EDT Tue May 13 2025

NCZ029-044>047-080-081-094-193-194-140815-
Martin-Pitt-Washington-Tyrrell-Mainland Dare-Beaufort-Mainland Hyde-
Pamlico-Northern Craven-Southern Craven-
406 AM EDT Tue May 13 2025

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ079-090>092-198-140815-
Greene-Duplin-Lenoir-Jones-Inland Onslow-
406 AM EDT Tue May 13 2025

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ195-196-203>205-140815-
West Carteret-East Carteret-Northern Outer Banks-Ocracoke Island-
Hatteras Island-
406 AM EDT Tue May 13 2025

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Beach Hazards Statement.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ199-140815-
Coastal Onslow-
406 AM EDT Tue May 13 2025

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Beach Hazards Statement.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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