Alert archive / North Carolina / Beach Hazards Statements in 2025
Beach Hazards Statement 80, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC
NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC issued this beach hazards statement at Oct 3, 2025, 8:27 PM EDT for Carteret County, Dare County, Hyde County, North Carolina. It was in force for 24 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 3, 2025, 8:27 PM EDT (00:27 UTC)
- Expired
- Oct 4, 2025, 8:00 PM EDT
- In force
- 24 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC
Counties Carteret County, NC, Dare County, NC, Hyde County, NC
The radar
The Morehead City radar (KMHX), 92 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:27 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Newport, NC (KMHX), launched 00:00Z, 0.5 hours before the alert went out and 92 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 935 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 5 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -31 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 13 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
072 WHUS42 KMHX 040027 CFWMHX Coastal Hazard Message National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 827 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025 NCZ205-041230- /O.EXP.KMHX.BH.S.0079.000000T0000Z-251004T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KMHX.BH.S.0080.251004T0027Z-251005T0000Z/ /O.CON.KMHX.CF.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-251005T0000Z/ /O.CON.KMHX.SU.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-251004T1200Z/ Hatteras Island- 827 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025 ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY... ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...For the Beach Hazards Statement, dangerous rip currents and large breaking waves in the surf zone. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, 1 to 2 feet of inundation above ground level in low- lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways. For the High Surf Advisory, large breaking waves of 7 to 10 feet in the surf zone. * WHERE...Hatteras Island. * WHEN...For the Beach Hazards Statement, through Saturday evening. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, until 8 PM EDT Saturday. For the High Surf Advisory, until 8 AM EDT Saturday. * IMPACTS...Additional minor oceanside coastal flooding, with inundation 1 to 2 feet above ground level, locally higher with wave action, resulting in an elevated threat of continued property damage. Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The most likely time for strong rip currents to occur is a couple hours either side of low tide, which will occur around 11:00 AM Saturday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property. Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to dangerous surf conditions. && $$ NCZ196-041230- /O.EXP.KMHX.BH.S.0079.000000T0000Z-251004T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KMHX.BH.S.0080.251004T0027Z-251005T0000Z/ /O.CON.KMHX.CF.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-251005T0000Z/ East Carteret- 827 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025 ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT... ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...For the Beach Hazards Statement, dangerous rip currents and large breaking waves in the surf zone. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, 1 to 2 feet of inundation above ground level in low- lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways. * WHERE...East Carteret County. * WHEN...For the Beach Hazards Statement, through Saturday evening. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, until 8 PM EDT Saturday. * IMPACTS...Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only isolated road closures expected. Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water. Dangerous shore break can throw a swimmer or surfer head first into the bottom causing neck and back injuries. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The most likely time for strong rip currents to occur is a couple hours either side of low tide, which will occur around 11:00 AM Saturday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property. Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to dangerous surf conditions. && $$ NCZ203-041230- /O.EXP.KMHX.BH.S.0079.000000T0000Z-251004T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KMHX.BH.S.0080.251004T0027Z-251005T0000Z/ /O.CON.KMHX.SU.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-251004T1200Z/ Northern Outer Banks- 827 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025 ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...For the Beach Hazards Statement, dangerous rip currents and large breaking waves in the surf zone. For the High Surf Advisory, large breaking waves of 6 to 9 feet in the surf zone. * WHERE...Northern Outer Banks beaches. * WHEN...For the Beach Hazards Statement, through Saturday evening. For the High Surf Advisory, until 8 AM EDT Saturday. * IMPACTS...Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion. Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water. Dangerous shore break can throw a swimmer or surfer head first into the bottom causing neck and back injuries. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The most likely time for strong rip currents to occur is a couple hours either side of low tide, which will occur around 11:00 AM Saturday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to dangerous surf conditions. && $$ NCZ204-041230- /O.EXP.KMHX.BH.S.0079.000000T0000Z-251004T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KMHX.BH.S.0080.251004T0027Z-251005T0000Z/ Ocracoke Island- 827 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025 ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Dangerous rip currents and large breaking waves in the surf zone. * WHERE...Ocracoke Island beaches. * WHEN...Through Saturday evening. * IMPACTS...Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water. Dangerous shore break can throw a swimmer or surfer head first into the bottom causing neck and back injuries. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The most likely time for strong rip currents to occur is a couple hours either side of low tide, which will occur around 11:00 AM Saturday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired, float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. Shore break occurs when waves break directly on the beach. It is extremely important to protect your head and neck whenever you are in breaking waves by keeping your hands in front of you at all times. && $$ NCZ080-094-194-041230- /O.CON.KMHX.CF.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-251005T0000Z/ Beaufort-Pamlico-Southern Craven- 827 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Minor coastal flooding with 1 to 2 feet of inundation above ground level possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways. * WHERE...Areas along the Pamlico Sound, Trent, Bay and lower Neuse Rivers, and adjacent tidal creeks, and areas along the Pamlico and Pungo Rivers and adjacent tidal creeks. * WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT Saturday. * IMPACTS...Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only isolated road closures expected. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property. && $$ Martin
3 follow-up statements
918 WHUS42 KMHX 040748 CFWMHX Coastal Hazard Message National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 348 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025 NCZ205-042000- /O.CAN.KMHX.SU.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-251004T1200Z/ /O.CON.KMHX.CF.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-251005T0000Z/ /O.CON.KMHX.BH.S.0080.000000T0000Z-251005T0000Z/ Hatteras Island- 348 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING... ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... * WHAT...For the Coastal Flood Advisory, 1 to 2 feet of inundation above ground level in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways. For the Beach Hazards Statement, dangerous rip currents and large breaking waves in the surf zone. * WHERE...Hatteras Island. * WHEN...For the Coastal Flood Advisory, until 8 PM EDT this evening. For the Beach Hazards Statement, through this evening. * IMPACTS...Additional minor oceanside coastal flooding, with inundation 1 to 2 feet above ground level, locally higher with wave action, resulting in an elevated threat of continued property damage. Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water. Dangerous shore break can throw a swimmer or surfer head first into the bottom causing neck and back injuries. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The most likely time for strong rip currents to occur is a couple hours either side of low tide, which will occur around 11:00 AM Saturday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property. Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired, float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. Shore break occurs when waves break directly on the beach. It is extremely important to protect your head and neck whenever you are in breaking waves by keeping your hands in front of you at all times. && $$ NCZ196-042000- /O.CAN.KMHX.CF.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-251005T0000Z/ /O.CON.KMHX.BH.S.0080.000000T0000Z-251005T0000Z/ East Carteret- 348 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025 ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT THROUGH THIS EVENING... ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... * WHAT...Dangerous rip currents and large breaking waves in the surf zone. * WHERE...Core Banks beaches. * WHEN...Through this evening. * IMPACTS...Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water. Dangerous shore break can throw a swimmer or surfer head first into the bottom causing neck and back injuries. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The most likely time for strong rip currents to occur is a couple hours either side of low tide, which will occur around 11:00 AM Saturday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired, float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. Shore break occurs when waves break directly on the beach. It is extremely important to protect your head and neck whenever you are in breaking waves by keeping your hands in front of you at all times. && $$ NCZ080-094-194-040900- /O.CAN.KMHX.CF.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-251005T0000Z/ Beaufort-Pamlico-Southern Craven- 348 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... Northeast winds have lessened, and any further inundation should be less than one foot above ground level. $$ NCZ203-042000- /O.CAN.KMHX.SU.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-251004T1200Z/ /O.CON.KMHX.BH.S.0080.000000T0000Z-251005T0000Z/ Northern Outer Banks- 348 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025 ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING... ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... * WHAT...Dangerous rip currents and large breaking waves in the surf zone. * WHERE...Northern Outer Banks beaches. * WHEN...Through this evening. * IMPACTS...Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water. Dangerous shore break can throw a swimmer or surfer head first into the bottom causing neck and back injuries. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The most likely time for strong rip currents to occur is a couple hours either side of low tide, which will occur around 11:00 AM Saturday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired, float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. Shore break occurs when waves break directly on the beach. It is extremely important to protect your head and neck whenever you are in breaking waves by keeping your hands in front of you at all times. && $$ NCZ204-042000- /O.CON.KMHX.BH.S.0080.000000T0000Z-251005T0000Z/ Ocracoke Island- 348 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025 ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Dangerous rip currents and large breaking waves in the surf zone. * WHERE...Ocracoke Island beaches. * WHEN...Through this evening. * IMPACTS...Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water. Dangerous shore break can throw a swimmer or surfer head first into the bottom causing neck and back injuries. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The most likely time for strong rip currents to occur is a couple hours either side of low tide, which will occur around 11:00 AM Saturday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired, float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. Shore break occurs when waves break directly on the beach. It is extremely important to protect your head and neck whenever you are in breaking waves by keeping your hands in front of you at all times. && $$
270 WHUS42 KMHX 041845 CFWMHX Coastal Hazard Message National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 245 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025 NCZ205-050000- /O.CON.KMHX.CF.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-251005T0000Z/ /O.CON.KMHX.BH.S.0080.000000T0000Z-251005T0000Z/ Hatteras Island- 245 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...For the Coastal Flood Advisory, 1 to 2 feet of inundation above ground level in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways. For the Beach Hazards Statement, dangerous rip currents and large breaking waves in the surf zone. * WHERE...Hatteras Island. * WHEN...For the Coastal Flood Advisory, until 8 PM EDT this evening. For the Beach Hazards Statement, through this evening. * IMPACTS...Additional minor oceanside coastal flooding, with inundation 1 to 2 feet above ground level, locally higher with wave action, resulting in an elevated threat of continued property damage. Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water. Dangerous shore break can throw a swimmer or surfer head first into the bottom causing neck and back injuries. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The most likely time for strong rip currents to occur is a couple hours either side of low tide, which will occur around 11:00 AM Saturday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property. Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired, float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. Shore break occurs when waves break directly on the beach. It is extremely important to protect your head and neck whenever you are in breaking waves by keeping your hands in front of you at all times. && $$ NCZ196-203-204-050000- /O.CON.KMHX.BH.S.0080.000000T0000Z-251005T0000Z/ East Carteret-Northern Outer Banks-Ocracoke Island- 245 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025 ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Dangerous rip currents and large breaking waves in the surf zone. * WHERE...Core Banks, Northern Outer Banks, and Ocracoke Island beaches. * WHEN...Through this evening. * IMPACTS...Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water. Dangerous shore break can throw a swimmer or surfer head first into the bottom causing neck and back injuries. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The most likely time for strong rip currents to occur is a couple hours either side of low tide, which will occur around 11:00 AM Saturday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired, float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. Shore break occurs when waves break directly on the beach. It is extremely important to protect your head and neck whenever you are in breaking waves by keeping your hands in front of you at all times. && $$
421 WHUS42 KMHX 050011 CFWMHX Coastal Hazard Message National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 811 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025 NCZ205-051215- /O.EXP.KMHX.CF.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-251005T0000Z/ /O.EXP.KMHX.BH.S.0080.000000T0000Z-251005T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KMHX.BH.S.0081.251005T1200Z-251006T0000Z/ Hatteras Island- 811 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025 ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED... * WHAT...Dangerous rip currents and large breaking waves expected in the surf zone. * WHERE...For the dangerous rip currents, all Hatteras Island beaches. For the large breaking waves in the surf zone, beaches north of Cape Hatteras. * WHEN...From 8 AM EDT Sunday through Sunday evening. * IMPACTS...Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water. Dangerous shore break can throw a swimmer or surfer head first into the bottom causing neck and back injuries. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The most likely time for strong rip currents to occur is a couple hours either side of low tide, which will occur around 12:30 PM Sunday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired, float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. Shore break occurs when waves break directly on the beach. It is extremely important to protect your head and neck whenever you are in breaking waves by keeping your hands in front of you at all times. && $$ NCZ196-204-051215- /O.EXP.KMHX.BH.S.0080.000000T0000Z-251005T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KMHX.BH.S.0081.251005T1200Z-251006T0000Z/ East Carteret-Ocracoke Island- 811 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025 ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Dangerous rip currents. * WHERE...Ocracoke Island and Core Banks beaches. * WHEN...From 8 AM EDT Sunday through Sunday evening. * IMPACTS...Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The most likely time for strong rip currents to occur is a couple hours either side of low tide, which will occur around 12:40 PM Sunday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired, float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. && $$ NCZ203-051215- /O.EXP.KMHX.BH.S.0080.000000T0000Z-251005T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KMHX.BH.S.0081.251005T1200Z-251006T0000Z/ Northern Outer Banks- 811 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025 ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT HAS EXPIRED... * WHAT...Dangerous rip currents and large breaking waves expected in the surf zone. * WHERE...Northern Outer Banks beaches. * WHEN...From 8 AM EDT Sunday through Sunday evening. * IMPACTS...Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water. Dangerous shore break can throw a swimmer or surfer head first into the bottom causing neck and back injuries. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The most likely time for strong rip currents to occur is a couple hours either side of low tide, which will occur around 12:30 PM Sunday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired, float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. Shore break occurs when waves break directly on the beach. It is extremely important to protect your head and neck whenever you are in breaking waves by keeping your hands in front of you at all times. && $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this beach hazards statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this beach hazards statement went out at Oct 3, 7:51 PM EDT, 36 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Oct 3, 7:51 PM EDT, 36 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
751 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Minor coastal impacts continue for portions of eastern North
Carolina through tonight. High pressure will continue building
in from the north through Saturday and then push offshore early
next week allowing for return flow to finally set up once
again. This will continue to bring seasonable temperatures and
generally dry conditions to ENC into next week. Cold front
approaches for the middle of next week increasing chances at
unsettled weather.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 230 PM Friday...
Key Messages:
-Last of the more significant coastal flooding impacts end
tonight with just minor water level rises expected afterwards
(see coastal flooding section)
-Benign weather resumes with a low chance for patchy fog
Over the next 12-18 hours or so, split flow aloft is forecast, with
weak upper ridging extending into NC from the south and an upper
level trough diving in from the north. While at the surface high
pressure ridging continues to slide in from the north. This has
allowed for winds to ease through the day today. Most obs show 5-10
mph NE'rly winds inland and 10-15 mph winds along the immediate
coast and OBX with gusts up near 20 mph at times. Did see a few iso
showers along the coast and OBX through the day today in association
with a coastal trough but shower activity should end later tonight
as the aforementioned trough pushes inland and weakens. Temps
this afternoon had gotten into the mid to upper 70s and with
dewpoints in the mid 50s to mid 60s RH's this afternoon have
dropped into the upper 40s to mid 50s resulting in a cool but
overall pleasant fall day today.
As we get into tonight high pressure continues to slide into ENC
weakening the gradient further allowing winds to become light
(Generally 10 mph or less), potentially decoupling in spots,
especially along our inland zones as this will be closest to
the center of the high. Given this, there is a low end threat
for patchy fog/low stratus and have since added patchy fog to
the forecast for our NW'rn zones which will be closest to the
center of the high pressure system. As of right now giving a
20-40% chance for fog given latest Hi-Res guidance so fog
threat is certainly not a slam dunk. Any leftover precip along
the coast should end quickly tonight as aforementioned coastal
trough dissipates. Elected to go on the lower end of guidance
given potential for decoupling with lows in the low to mid 50s
inland and 60s along the coast
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
As of 230 PM Friday...
Key Messages:
- Benign weather forecast
Not much to say outside of it being a nice fall day outside.
Will likely have some continued minor coastal flood impacts
across areas with a coastal flood advisory, though water level
rises should remain around 1 to potentially 2 ft max with
greatest impacts across areas with weakened dune structures.
Surface high begins to slide east and offshore keeping NE-E'rly
winds light at about 5-10 mph on Sat. Dry airmass aloft will
preclude any precip chances for Sat with the area under partly
cloudy to clear skies. Temps wont change much from Fri as low
level thicknesses remain about the same generally ranging from
the mid 70s to near 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 2 AM Friday...Sfc high pressure will be centered off the
Mid-Atlantic coast while upper ridging builds across the Eastern
CONUS into early next week. NE winds continue into Saturday,
then veer to Ely as the sfc high migrates off the Mid-Atlantic
coast. Generally dry weather is expected for most area although
a coastal trough offshore may produce a few showers across the
coastal waters. Some guidance continues to show some of these
showers working their way toward the coast. Temps warm to near
normal over the weekend and early next week with highs around
80/lower 80s.
By the middle of next week, the upper ridge breaks down as a strong
northern stream trough digs into the Northern Plains and Midwest
with sfc high pressure migrating farther offshore and a sfc
cold front approaching from the NW bringing increasing chances
of showers across the region.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 7:35 PM Friday...Predominantly VFR conditions are expected
for all TAF sites over the next few hours. As we approach the
early morning hours tomorrow, chances for fog and low stratus
will increase, especially for western terminals (PGV and ISO).
The coastal plain will have less cloud cover and is more likely
to decouple, making them the best candidates for MVFR fog
between 10-12z. Guidance has trended more pessimistic with low
stratus with the latest GLAMP showing a 40-50% chance of LIFR
CIGs for PGV. While at least FEW to SCT low stratus is expected
across the coastal plain, confidence is lower for BKN or OVC
skies to develop. I trended this TAF cycle more pessimistic in
terms of low stratus in order to reflect latest guidance, but
all cloud decks have been kept at FEW to SCT at this time. Obs
will be monitored to see if cloud cover needs to be increased.
All obs should return to VFR by 12/13z, making way for a mix of
diurnal cu and high clouds with light variable winds.
LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 2 AM Friday...Pred VFR conditions expected through the
long term with high pressure building in from the northeast. NE
to E will be less than 15 kt through the period. Cannot rule out
patchy late night fog over the weekend when winds will be
weaker and low levels decouple overnight.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 250 PM Friday...
Key Messages:
- Elevated seas will continue across our coastal waters through
Saturday
Winds have eased compared to the previous few days with the
latest obs showing widespread 10-20 kt winds with a few gusts
along our coastal waters to 25 kts. Seas across the coastal
waters are sitting at about 6-10 ft with the lone exception
being along the immediate Crystal Coast where lower seas are
noted. Will note near the Crystal Coast anywhere 2-5+ miles out
likely has 6+ ft seas ongoing. Either way expect conditions to
remain the same into this evening before high pressure ridge
gradually slides towards our waters weakening the pressure
gradient and allowing NE'rly winds to ease down to 5-15 kts.
WInds remain at these speeds through the remainder of the
period. Seas will also be on the downtrend given the weaker
winds falling to 4-8 ft tonight and then 3-7 ft tomorrow. With
this in mind the ongoing small craft advisories along our
coastal waters will remain in place through the period.
LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 1 AM Thursday...High pressure migrates offshore over the
weekend with easterly winds around 15 kt or less through Monday,
then veers to SE on Tuesday. Seas around 4-8 ft on Saturday
will slowly subside through the long term. Seas expected to drop
below 6 ft by Saturday north of Oregon Inlet, however 4-7 ft
seas expected to continue across the waters south of Oregon
Inlet through Monday, finally dropping below 6 ft on Tuesday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 3 PM Friday...While we continue to trim ongoing coastal
flood warnings and advisories, continued long period swell and a
steady NE'rly wind will bring minor coastal flooding impacts to
portions of the the Outer Banks south of Oregon Inlet and soundside
areas adj to the southern Pamlico Sound, Neuse/Bay/Pamlico
Rivers into Saturday. Final coastal flood warning has been
dropped but coastal flood advisories remain across Hatteras
Island, Core Banks beaches, Downeast Carteret County and across
the adjacent counties by the Neuse/Bay/Pamlico Rivers.
Oceanside...Lingering powerful long period swell from the
combination of ex-hurricanes Humberto and Imelda will persist
across ENC beaches into Saturday, bringing dangerous rip
currents, large breaking waves, ocean overwash, coastal
flooding, and wave runup impacts. While impacts continue to
wane as waves gradually lower, there still is the threat for 1
to 2 ft AGL of inundation around times of high tide around Core
Banks Beaches and Hatteras Island given weakened dune
structures across the area.
Soundside...NE winds will continue to subside
today but elevated water levels expected to continue into
Saturday with 1-2 ft of inundation possible along the southern
Pamlico Sound, Neuse/Bay and Pamlico/Pungo rivers.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for NCZ080-094-
194-196-205.
Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196-
203>205.
High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ150.
Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Tuesday for AMZ152-154-156-
158.
&&
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/OJC
MARINE...SK/RCF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHXHazardous weather outlook, Oct 3, 3:04 PM EDT, 5 hours 23 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 304 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025 NCZ029-044>047-079-081-090>092-193-195-198-041915- Martin-Pitt-Washington-Tyrrell-Mainland Dare-Greene-Mainland Hyde- Duplin-Lenoir-Jones-Northern Craven-West Carteret-Inland Onslow- 304 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ205-041915- Hatteras Island- 304 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY... ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY... ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Beach Hazards Statement. Coastal Flood Advisory. High Surf Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Coastal Flood Advisory. High Surf Advisory. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ204-041915- Ocracoke Island- 304 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025 ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Beach Hazards Statement. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ203-041915- Northern Outer Banks- 304 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025 ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY... ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Beach Hazards Statement. High Surf Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. High Surf Advisory. An elevated threat for strong and more frequent rip currents this week due to large swells from distant Imelda and Humberto. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ080-094-194-041915- Beaufort-Pamlico-Southern Craven- 304 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Coastal Flood Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Coastal Flood Advisory. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ196-041915- East Carteret- 304 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY... ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Beach Hazards Statement. Coastal Flood Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Coastal Flood Advisory. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ199-041915- Coastal Onslow- 304 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025 ...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Moderate Rip Current Risk. No hazardous weather is expected at this time .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Nearby
Beach Hazards Statements in North Carolina, 2025Every beach hazards statement in 2025
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.