Alert archive / North Carolina / Beach Hazards Statements in 2025
Beach Hazards Statement 56, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC
NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC issued this beach hazards statement at Aug 23, 2025, 8:23 PM EDT for Carteret County, Dare County, Hyde County, North Carolina. It was in force for 24 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 23, 2025, 8:23 PM EDT (00:23 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 24, 2025, 8:00 PM EDT
- In force
- 24 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC
Counties Carteret County, NC, Dare County, NC, Hyde County, NC
The radar
The Morehead City radar (KMHX), 92 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:24 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Newport, NC (KMHX), launched 00:00Z, 0.4 hours before the alert went out and 92 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 26 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -1 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 773 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 9 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -14 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 68 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
453
WHUS42 KMHX 240023
CFWMHX
Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
823 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025
NCZ203-205-241230-
/O.EXP.KMHX.BH.S.0055.000000T0000Z-250824T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMHX.BH.S.0056.250824T0023Z-250825T0000Z/
/O.EXT.KMHX.SU.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-250824T1600Z/
/O.CON.KMHX.CF.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-250824T0400Z/
Northern Outer Banks-Hatteras Island-
823 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...
* WHAT...For the Beach Hazards Statement, dangerous rip currents
and large breaking waves in the surf zone. For the High Surf
Advisory, large breaking waves of 6 to 9 feet in the surf zone.
For the Coastal Flood Advisory, 1 to 2 feet of inundation above
ground level in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal
waterways around high tide this evening.
* WHERE...Northern Outer Banks and Hatteras Island.
* WHEN...For the Beach Hazards Statement, through Sunday
evening. For the High Surf Advisory, until noon EDT Sunday.
For the Coastal Flood Advisory, until midnight EDT tonight.
* IMPACTS...Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only
isolated road closures expected. Dangerous swimming and
surfing conditions and localized beach erosion. Rip currents
can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper
water. Dangerous shore break can throw a swimmer or surfer
head first into the bottom causing neck and back injuries.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The most likely time for strong rip
currents to occur is a couple hours either side of low tide,
which just occured around 3 pm Sunday afternoon.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.
Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to
dangerous surf conditions.
Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain
calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired,
float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to
escape, face the shore and call or wave for help.
Shore break occurs when waves break directly on the beach. It is
extremely important to protect your head and neck whenever you
are in breaking waves by keeping your hands in front of you at
all times.
&&
Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.
Duck NC
MLLW Categories - Minor 5.5 ft, Moderate 6.0 ft, Major 6.5 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.8 ft, Moderate 2.3 ft, Major 2.8 ft
Total Total Departure
Day/Time Tide Tide from Norm Waves Flood
ft MLLW ft MHHW ft ft Impact
-------- --------- --------- --------- ------- --------
23/08 PM 5.1 1.4 1.2 4 None
24/09 AM 4.4 0.7 0.7 4 None
24/09 PM 4.4 0.7 0.6 4 None
25/09 AM 4.3 0.6 0.6 4 None
25/09 PM 4.1 0.4 0.6 3 None
26/10 AM 4.3 0.6 0.6 3 None
&&
$$
NCZ204-241230-
/O.EXP.KMHX.BH.S.0055.000000T0000Z-250824T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMHX.BH.S.0056.250824T0023Z-250825T0000Z/
/O.CON.KMHX.CF.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-250824T0400Z/
Ocracoke Island-
823 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...
* WHAT...For the Beach Hazards Statement, dangerous rip currents.
For the Coastal Flood Advisory, 1 to 2 feet of inundation above
ground level in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal
waterways around high tide this evening.
* WHERE...Ocracoke Island.
* WHEN...For the Beach Hazards Statement, through Sunday
evening. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, until midnight EDT
tonight.
* IMPACTS...Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only
isolated road closures expected. Rip currents can sweep even
the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The most likely time for strong rip
currents to occur is a couple hours either side of low tide,
which just occured around 3 pm Sunday afternoon.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.
Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain
calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired,
float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to
escape, face the shore and call or wave for help.
&&
$$
NCZ196-241230-
/O.EXP.KMHX.BH.S.0055.000000T0000Z-250824T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMHX.BH.S.0056.250824T0023Z-250825T0000Z/
East Carteret-
823 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...
* WHAT...Dangerous rip currents and large breaking waves in the
surf zone.
* WHERE...Core Banks beaches.
* WHEN...Through Sunday evening.
* IMPACTS...Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away
from shore into deeper water. Dangerous shore break can throw
a swimmer or surfer head first into the bottom causing neck
and back injuries.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The most likely time for strong rip
currents to occur is a couple hours either side of low tide,
which just occured around 3 pm Sunday afternoon.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain
calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired,
float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to
escape, face the shore and call or wave for help.
Shore break occurs when waves break directly on the beach. It is
extremely important to protect your head and neck whenever you
are in breaking waves by keeping your hands in front of you at
all times.
&&
$$5 follow-up statements
593 WHUS42 KMHX 240356 CFWMHX Coastal Hazard Message National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1156 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025 NCZ203-205-241600- /O.CAN.KMHX.CF.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-250824T0400Z/ /O.CON.KMHX.SU.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-250824T1600Z/ /O.CON.KMHX.BH.S.0056.000000T0000Z-250825T0000Z/ Northern Outer Banks-Hatteras Island- 1156 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025 ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY... ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... * WHAT...For the High Surf Advisory, large breaking waves of 6 to 9 feet in the surf zone. For the Beach Hazards Statement, dangerous rip currents and large breaking waves in the surf zone. * WHERE...The beaches north of Cape Hatteras. * WHEN...For the High Surf Advisory, until noon EDT Sunday. For the Beach Hazards Statement, through Sunday evening. * IMPACTS...Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion. Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water. Dangerous shore break can throw a swimmer or surfer head first into the bottom causing neck and back injuries. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The most likely time for strong rip currents to occur is a couple hours either side of low tide, which will occur around 3:00 PM Sunday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to dangerous surf conditions. Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired, float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. Shore break occurs when waves break directly on the beach. It is extremely important to protect your head and neck whenever you are in breaking waves by keeping your hands in front of you at all times. && $$ NCZ204-241600- /O.CAN.KMHX.CF.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-250824T0400Z/ /O.CON.KMHX.BH.S.0056.000000T0000Z-250825T0000Z/ Ocracoke Island- 1156 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025 ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Dangerous rip currents. * WHERE...Ocracoke Island beaches. * WHEN...Through Sunday evening. * IMPACTS...Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The most likely time for strong rip currents to occur is a couple hours either side of low tide, which will occur around 3:00 PM Sunday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired, float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. && $$ NCZ196-241600- /O.CON.KMHX.BH.S.0056.000000T0000Z-250825T0000Z/ East Carteret- 1156 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025 ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Dangerous rip currents and large breaking waves in the surf zone. * WHERE...Core Banks beaches. * WHEN...Through Sunday evening. * IMPACTS...Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water. Dangerous shore break can throw a swimmer or surfer head first into the bottom causing neck and back injuries. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The most likely time for strong rip currents to occur is a couple hours either side of low tide, which will occur around 3:00 PM Sunday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired, float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. Shore break occurs when waves break directly on the beach. It is extremely important to protect your head and neck whenever you are in breaking waves by keeping your hands in front of you at all times. && $$ Martin
199 WHUS42 KMHX 240737 CFWMHX Coastal Hazard Message National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 337 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025 NCZ203-205-241945- /O.CON.KMHX.SU.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-250824T1600Z/ /O.CON.KMHX.BH.S.0056.000000T0000Z-250825T0000Z/ Northern Outer Banks-Hatteras Island- 337 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025 ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY... ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING... * WHAT...For the High Surf Advisory, large breaking waves of 4 to 7 feet in the surf zone. For the Beach Hazards Statement, dangerous rip currents and large breaking waves in the surf zone. * WHERE...The beaches north of Cape Hatteras. * WHEN...For the High Surf Advisory, until noon EDT today. For the Beach Hazards Statement, through this evening. * IMPACTS...Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion. Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water. Dangerous shore break can throw a swimmer or surfer head first into the bottom causing neck and back injuries. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The most likely time for strong rip currents to occur is a couple hours either side of low tide, which will occur around 3:00 PM Sunday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to dangerous surf conditions. Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired, float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. Shore break occurs when waves break directly on the beach. It is extremely important to protect your head and neck whenever you are in breaking waves by keeping your hands in front of you at all times. && $$ NCZ204-241945- /O.CON.KMHX.BH.S.0056.000000T0000Z-250825T0000Z/ Ocracoke Island- 337 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025 ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Dangerous rip currents. * WHERE...Ocracoke Island beaches. * WHEN...Through this evening. * IMPACTS...Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The most likely time for strong rip currents to occur is a couple hours either side of low tide, which will occur around 3:00 PM Sunday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired, float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. && $$ NCZ196-241945- /O.CON.KMHX.BH.S.0056.000000T0000Z-250825T0000Z/ East Carteret- 337 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025 ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT... * WHAT...Dangerous rip currents and large breaking waves in the surf zone. * WHERE...Core Banks beaches. * WHEN...Through this evening. * IMPACTS...Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water. Dangerous shore break can throw a swimmer or surfer head first into the bottom causing neck and back injuries. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The most likely time for strong rip currents to occur is a couple hours either side of low tide, which will occur around 3:00 PM Sunday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired, float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. Shore break occurs when waves break directly on the beach. It is extremely important to protect your head and neck whenever you are in breaking waves by keeping your hands in front of you at all times. && $$ Martin
183 WHUS42 KMHX 241500 CFWMHX Coastal Hazard Message National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025 NCZ203-205-250000- /O.CON.KMHX.SU.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-250824T1600Z/ /O.CON.KMHX.BH.S.0056.000000T0000Z-250825T0000Z/ Northern Outer Banks-Hatteras Island- 1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025 ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY... ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...For the High Surf Advisory, large breaking waves of 4 to 7 feet in the surf zone. For the Beach Hazards Statement, dangerous rip currents and large breaking waves in the surf zone. * WHERE...The beaches north of Cape Hatteras. * WHEN...For the High Surf Advisory, until noon EDT today. For the Beach Hazards Statement, until 8 PM EDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion. Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water. Dangerous shore break can throw a swimmer or surfer head first into the bottom causing neck and back injuries. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The most likely time for strong rip currents to occur is a couple hours either side of low tide, which will occur around 3:00 PM Sunday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to dangerous surf conditions. Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired, float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. Shore break occurs when waves break directly on the beach. It is extremely important to protect your head and neck whenever you are in breaking waves by keeping your hands in front of you at all times. && $$ NCZ196-204-250000- /O.CON.KMHX.BH.S.0056.000000T0000Z-250825T0000Z/ East Carteret-Ocracoke Island- 1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025 ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Dangerous rip currents. * WHERE...Ocracoke Island and Core Banks beaches. * WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The most likely time for strong rip currents to occur is a couple hours either side of low tide, which will occur around 3:00 PM Sunday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired, float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. && $$
108 WHUS42 KMHX 241825 CFWMHX Coastal Hazard Message National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 225 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025 NCZ196-204-250000- /O.CON.KMHX.BH.S.0056.000000T0000Z-250825T0000Z/ East Carteret-Ocracoke Island- 225 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025 ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT... * WHAT...Dangerous rip currents. * WHERE...Ocracoke Island and Core Banks beaches. * WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The most likely time for strong rip currents to occur is a couple hours either side of low tide, which will occur around 3 PM this afternoon. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired, float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. && $$ NCZ203-205-250000- /O.CON.KMHX.BH.S.0056.000000T0000Z-250825T0000Z/ Northern Outer Banks-Hatteras Island- 225 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025 ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Dangerous rip currents and large breaking waves in the surf zone. * WHERE...The beaches north of Cape Hatteras. * WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water. Dangerous shore break can throw a swimmer or surfer head first into the bottom causing neck and back injuries. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The most likely time for strong rip currents to occur is a couple hours either side of low tide, which will occur around 3 PM this afternoon. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired, float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. Shore break occurs when waves break directly on the beach. It is extremely important to protect your head and neck whenever you are in breaking waves by keeping your hands in front of you at all times. && $$
483 WHUS42 KMHX 250011 CFWMHX Coastal Hazard Message National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 811 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025 NCZ196-203>205-251215- /O.EXP.KMHX.BH.S.0056.000000T0000Z-250825T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KMHX.BH.S.0057.250825T1200Z-250826T0000Z/ East Carteret-Northern Outer Banks-Ocracoke Island- Hatteras Island- 811 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025 ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Dangerous rip currents. * WHERE...The beaches from Duck to Cape Lookout. * WHEN...From 8 AM EDT Monday through Monday evening. * IMPACTS...Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The most likely time for strong rip currents to occur is a couple hours either side of low tide, which will occur around 3:24 PM Monday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired, float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. && $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this beach hazards statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this beach hazards statement went out at Aug 23, 7:27 PM EDT, 56 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 23, 7:27 PM EDT, 56 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
727 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Lingering minor coastal flooding impacts will continue this
evening, especially along the Outer Banks. High pressure will
continue moving offshore as a weak low moves up the coast and
brings a threat of moderate to heavy rainfall along the coast
tonight through Sunday. A strong cold front will move through
early next week, bringing a noticeably cooler and drier airmass
and our next chance of showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 715 PM Saturday...
Key Messages:
- Heavy rainfall and flash flooding concerns along the coast
tonight
- Minor coastal flooding concerns during high tide around 830PM
Ocracoke to Duck
Only change on this update was to include SChc PoP's across our
NW'rn coastal plain counties given current radar imagery as
isolated showers persist this evening. Otherwise the rest of the
forecast is on track.
Prev Disc...Generally quiet, pleasant weather today thanks to
easterly flow and a weak high pressure. There is a coastal
trough bringing scattered showers to Core banks and the Crystal
Coast, although with dry air overhead and limited instability
the thunder threat is low. High pressure will continue moving
offshore as a coastal low moves through the region tonight into
Sunday. See HYDROLOGY section on more details on the rainfall
impact from this coastal low. Weak nature of the low should keep
winds from becoming gusty.
Although the remnants of Erin will get progressively farther
away from our coast today, minor coastal flooding impacts may
continue for vulnerable locations due to elevated water levels
from large swells, higher than normal astronomical tides, and
compromised dune structures. (see the TIDES/COASTAL FLOOD
section for details).
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
As of 2 AM Saturday...
- Heavy rain is possible early Sunday, generally east of
Highway 17
Coastal low will be progressing northeastward through our
coastal waters early Sunday, before finally moving away in the
afternoon/evening. Heavy rain chances continue through Sunday
morning, shifting northward following the low as the day
progresses. Once the low passes through, rain chances quickly
decrease behind it. See HYDROLOGY section for more details.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 245 AM Saturday...
Key Messages
- Below to well below normal temperatures mid-week
After this weekend, attention turns to a strong cold front which is
forecast to move through late Monday or Monday evening. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms may accompany this front. In fact, modest
shear of 20-30kt overlapping weak instability (MLCAPE of 500-
1000j/kg) may allow a strong thunderstorm, or two, to develop.
However, the risk of severe thunderstorms appears low due to a lack
of better lift and moisture.
This cold front will usher in a noticeably cooler airmass by mid-
week, with temperatures expected to be a solid 5-10 degrees below
normal. This will especially be noticeable at night as lows drop
into the 50s and 60s. The lowest temperatures are expected Wednesday
night, and it's within the realm of possibility that a few record
lows could be in jeopardy for the typically colder inland locations.
Late in the week, guidance begins to significantly differ. Within
broad troughing across the ERN U.S., the potential exists for
another coastal low to develop near the coast of the Carolinas.
Should this occur, we could be looking at another round of heavy
rain and gusty winds for portions of the area.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Sunday/...
As of 720 PM Saturday...Primarily VFR conditions are noted
across ENC this evening with isolated to widely scattered
showers noted across the area in association with a coastal
trough just off the coast. A coastal low will develop tonight
along the SC coast and track NE'wards along the NC coast and OBX
Sun morning and afternoon. Expect ceilings to quickly lower
over the next several hours with MVFR ceilings forecast across
the Crystal Coast by about 4-6Z with MVFR ceilings then
extending north and east through the overnight reaching the
inland terminals (ISO/PGV) by about 7-9Z. IFR ceilings remain
possible after 06Z tonight especially along the Crystal Coast
(EWN/OAJ terminals) and the southern OBX, and have included a
mention for IFR ceilings here. In addition to this, increasing
rain chances will overspread ENC primarily along the Crystal
Coast and OBX with rain becoming heavy at times especially near
Sun morning. This could bring IFR ceilings/vis especially along
the coast and in the heaviest showers. Low pressure eventually
pushes off to the north and east by Sun afternoon allowing for
VFR conditions to return from SW to NE. For now winds will
likely remain light from the east to northeast but if low
deepens more than currently forecast could see a few wind gusts
up near 20-25 kts along the OBX and surrounding waters.
LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 245 AM Saturday... A cold front then moves through late
Monday or Monday evening with a northwesterly wind shift and a
risk of SCT SHRA and TSRA. Much drier air moves in behind this
front, with VFR conditions returning.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Sunday/...
As of 340 PM Saturday...
Easterly 10-15kt winds will become southeast later today and
tonight as an area of low pressure develops off the coast of
SC. As this low approaches the ENC waters, there should be an
increased risk of showers and thunderstorms bringing very heavy
rainfall tonight through Sunday afternoon. Seas of 4-8ft at
10-13s are expected to continue through tonight, slowly
decreasing through Sunday.
LONG TERM /Sun night through Thursday/...
As of 245 AM Saturday...
A modestly deep area of low pressure is forecast to lift northeast
through the ENC coastal waters tonight-Sunday. While notably deep,
the risk of 25kt winds appears low (<10% chance). However, the low
will bring an increased risk of thunderstorms on Sunday, especially
for the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet. Areas of enhanced
winds may accompany the thunderstorms, along with a risk of
waterspouts. Meanwhile, northeasterly long-period swell emanating
from the remnants of Erin will continue to impact the coastal
waters, especially north of Ocracoke Inlet. Additionally, Sunday's
low may help to enhance the swell, adding a modest wind swell on top
of the long-period swell. This is expected to keep seas elevated
through the weekend (4-8ft at 10-12s). Because of this, Small Craft
Advisories will remain in effect through the weekend, with the
potential for elevated seas to last into early next week. After this
weekend, a strong cold front will move through late Monday or Monday
evening. Winds will briefly flip back to southwesterly ahead of the
front, then become northwesterly behind it.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A coastal low moves through the region tonight into Sunday.
PWATs are increasing to 2-2.5" ahead of and with the low, which
paired with ample forcing along the low passage and long, skinny
CAPE profiles, will support torrential downpours. Mean cloud
layer wind and corfidi upshear vectors support progressive
storms, but with the mean wind parallel to the axis of rainfall
I expect training storms to bring a swath of high rainfall
totals (2-4") with isolated amount of 6"+. The placement of the
axis of rainfall is likely going to be along downeast Carteret
Co up to the Outer Banks. However, a slight deviation to the
west for this low will result in the track shifting west. For
this reason, have issued a FLOOD WATCH for counties along and
east of hwy 17. The westward extent of the watch is due to
precautionary reasons, as there will be a sharp gradient in
precip totals and the exact location of the axis of precip will
not be realized until the event unfolds. On the other hand, in
the unlikely scenario where the low shifts east, the heaviest
rain may end up offshore, resulting in minimal precip totals
along our coast.
Heavy rain chances continue through Sunday morning, shifting
northward following the low as the day progresses. Some models
suggest a boundary forming to the east of the low that allows
rainfall to persist over NOBX Sunday afternoon. However, at this
point northerly flow with drier air should be present, and
heavy rain threat is not likely. Regardless, this will be a
possible scenario to watch out for, and if realized, could
result in higher than forecast rainfall totals for NOBX.
Areas along the Outer Banks impacted by the coastal flooding and
storm surge from the now distant Erin may be more susceptible
to flash flooding than normal, it is all dependent on the extent
of coastal flooding with this evening's high tide and how
quickly the sandy soils along the coast can lose their
saturation.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 340 PM Saturday...
Minor coastal flooding impacts are expected to linger across
portions of the OBX over the next 12-24 hours as water levels
remain elevated, both due to lingering long period swell and an
astronomically higher tide cycle. Because of this, a Coastal
Flood Advisory remains in effect where the impact is expected to
be the greatest.
Of note, an area of low pressure is forecast to lift northeast along
the coast later tonight through Sunday. While strong, impactful
winds are not likely, there may be enough of an enhancement to
the onshore flow north of Cape Hatteras to add to the ongoing
coastal flood impacts.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch from 5 AM EDT Sunday through Sunday afternoon for
NCZ046-047-080-081-203>205.
Flood Watch from 2 AM EDT Sunday through Sunday morning for
NCZ092-094-193>196-198-199.
Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196-
203>205.
Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for
NCZ203>205.
High Surf Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ150.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Sunday night for
AMZ156.
&&
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF/RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...RM/RCF
MARINE...RM/RJ
HYDROLOGY...MHX
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHXHazardous weather outlook, Aug 23, 2:01 PM EDT, 6 hours 22 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 201 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025 NCZ029-044-045-079-090-091-241815- Martin-Pitt-Washington-Greene-Duplin-Lenoir- 201 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ046-047-080-081-241815- Tyrrell-Mainland Dare-Beaufort-Mainland Hyde- 201 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ092-094-193-194-198-241815- Jones-Pamlico-Northern Craven-Southern Craven-Inland Onslow- 201 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ195-199-241815- West Carteret-Coastal Onslow- 201 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025 ...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Moderate Rip Current Risk. Flood Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ203-205-241815- Northern Outer Banks-Hatteras Island- 201 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT... ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT... ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Beach Hazards Statement. Coastal Flood Advisory. High Surf Advisory. Flood Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ204-241815- Ocracoke Island- 201 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT... ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Beach Hazards Statement. Coastal Flood Advisory. Flood Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ196-241815- East Carteret- 201 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025 ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... ...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Beach Hazards Statement. Moderate Rip Current Risk. Flood Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The office that day
Everything else NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 6:16 AM EDT | Special Marine Warning | MHX | 44 min |
Nearby
Beach Hazards Statements in North Carolina, 2025Every beach hazards statement in 2025
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.