Wind Advisory 25, NWS Medford, OR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
949 AM PST Mon Dec 22 2025

.Updated AVIATION and MARINE Discussions...

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.AVIATION...22/18Z TAFs...Generally low end VFR conditions prevail
across the region this morning, with local areas of IFR/LIFR
including here in the Rogue Valley. The lower conditions are
expected to improve to VFR by 19-20z, but widespread terrain
obscurations will persist through the TAF period. A weak front will
push on shore this afternoon, bringing another round of gusty winds
to the region. Low end VFR/MVFR conditions will prevail west of the
Cascades with this front, with VFR conditions expected elsewhere.
/BR-y

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.MARINE...Updated 900 AM PST Monday, December 22, 2025...Gusty south
to southwest winds will persist today along with steep to very steep
seas for all areas. Isolated gale force gusts are possible north of
Cape Blanco this afternoon. Conditions gradually improve tonight and
Tuesday. Then a strong low pressure will move south to north right
along the Oregon Coast Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This
could bring a quick round of strong gales, possibly reaching storm
force, along with very steep and chaotic seas. Another round of
gales with very steep seas is possible Thursday into Friday.

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.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 349 AM PST Mon Dec 22 2025/

DISCUSSION...Light showers linger over coastal areas, the
Cascades, and Modoc County early this morning. Inland activity
should decrease through the day, while light showers may continue
along the coast. Breezy winds continue over east side terrain, but
are safely out of hazardous ranges. Overall, today offers a short
break before activity is expected to resume in the middle of the
week.

An upper trough remaining in place over the Pacific Ocean will keep
southerly or southwesterly flow aloft. This flow looks to guide a
pair of surface lows towards the area. The first low will bring
showers to Siskiyou and Modoc counties on Tuesday morning with more
widespread activity continuing into Wednesday morning. The highest
precipitation amounts are forecast to be in the Shasta Valley region
(Dunsmuir, Mount Shasta City, Weed, McCloud) where 2 to 4 inches of
precipitation is expected in this timeframe. Other parts of Siskiyou
county as well as Coos and Curry counties could see 1 to 2 inches of
precipitation. Initial Tuesday morning snow levels of 4000-5000 feet
may allow for light snow showers of parts of Highways 89 and 97. In
western Siskiyou County, Sawyers Bar Road west of Etna could get 2
to 6 inches of snowfall. Cascades passes could also see 2 to 6
inches of snowfall. For these areas, the rise in snow levels may
turn snow to rain or rain/snow mixes. This shift may bring locally
slippery conditions. Terrain in Siskiyou County could see 6 to 12
inches of snowfall, with 18 to 24 inches possible over higher peaks
and ridgelines.

For this first surface low, gusty winds will also be a consideration
over terrain especially east of the Cascades and in the Shasta
Valley. Gusts of 45 to 55 mph are in the forecast for these areas.
A High Wind Watch covers a generalized area where these high winds
are possible, with additional guidance likely to narrow down areas
where High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories will be needed.

A second surface low would affect the area from late Wednesday into
early Friday. The path of this system has varied in guidance, making
high confidence in its impacts difficult to find, but a general
picture is building. With southerly flow continuing, western
Siskiyou County and the Mount Shasta region as well as Curry County
and the Cascades would remain areas of concern. Current guidance
does not show the same wind concerns as the first system, but a
forecast drop in snow levels late Thursday into early Friday could
make snowfall on Interstate 5 between Weed and Dunsmuir, along
Highway 89, Sawyers Bar Road west of Etna, and through the Cascades
a concern. Given the holiday, this is obviously an important period.
As confidence grows in the path of this second surface low, expected
impacts can be fully addressed.

Considering hydrologic concerns, river rises are expected but a
current absence of snowpack is helping to reduce immediate river
flooding concerns. Continuing precipitation over western Siskiyou
COunty may case rock slides in areas with unstable surface
conditions. And localized small stream floods or nuisance ponding in
areas with poor drainage will be possible in areas with moderate to
heavy precipitation.

Long-term deterministic imagery shows the upper trough breaking down
late Friday, with a weak ridge allowing for a break in activity
through the weekend and into early next week. Meteogram guidance
indicates activity resuming towards midweek of late December into
early January, but the signals are relatively scattered and coarse
at this point. -TAD

AVIATION...22/12Z TAFs...Scattered showers continue over areas
west of the Cascades as well as over Modoc County. Showers should
continue to decrease over inland areas through the day, but light
showers may continue over coastal areas. Fog has brought IFR/LIFR
visibilities Medford terminal and will stick around through the
early morning but should clear out before the afternoon. VFR
levels are expected across the area today, with weak signals for
fog in the Umpqua Valley and possibly returning to the Rogue
Valley later tonight into early Tuesday morning. -TAD

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.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...High Wind Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday
     night for ORZ029>031.

CA...Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for
     CAZ080-082>085.

     High Wind Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday
     night for CAZ081-084-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST this
     morning for PZZ350-370.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM PST
     Tuesday for PZZ350-370.

     Hazardous Seas Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for PZZ350-
     356-370-376.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST Tuesday for PZZ356-376.

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