Wind Advisory 16, NWS Medford, OR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1053 AM PDT Sun May 11 2025

.Updated AVIATION Discussion...

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.AVIATION...11/18Z TAFs..A seasonably strong front will push through
the region today. VFR conditions are most prevalent for inland
areas, with MVFR and local IFR developing along the coast. Through
this afternoon, gusty winds will be the main aviation concern with
southwest gusts of 15-25 kt expected west of the Cascades and 25-35
kt for areas east of the Cascades. Ceilings will gradually lower
through the afternoon, but largely remain VFR for inland, MVFR for
coastal locations.

Conditions lower later this evening and overnight as the main front
moves through the region. Expect widespread terrain obscurations and
MVFR conditions to develop with areas of rain spreading west to
east. Isolated thunderstorms are possible mainly along the coast and
over the marine waters late this afternoon and overnight. /BR-y

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.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 829 AM PDT Sun May 11 2025/

DISCUSSION...Satellite image shows a thicker cloud later from
about the Cascades west with high clouds moving in from the
southwest, with a lower deck below. Radar is showing isolated
showers over the marine waters with a few showers slipping into
the coastal counties. This was to be expected and this will be the
trend into this afternoon. Although we'll see showers increasing
in coverage along the coast this afternoon. Also a few cloud to
cloud lightning strikes have been observed over the marine
waters.

The other thing of note is moderate to occasionally strong winds
over the ridges east of the Cascades. This was also expected with
stronger winds aloft moving into the area. As we get further into
the day with max heating this afternoon, we'll see those stronger
winds surface down for many locations east of the Cascades. At
this tine, winds should remain below advisory levels, but a few
gusts could exceed that this afternoon over the higher terrain.

A few adjustments were made to the forecast. Mainly to fine tune
some of the details for today. Otherwise the forecast is on track.
-Petrucelli

MARINE...Updated 800 AM Saturday, May 11, 2025...A seasonably
strong front will push through the region today, and conditions
will deteriorate later this morning into the evening. Southerly
winds will increase as a front approaches, and as it moves onshore
there will be a brief period when gale force gusts will be
possible north of Cape Blanco this afternoon. Seas will become
steep across all waters by this afternoon, but the highest seas
will north of Cape Blanco where localized areas of very steep and
hazardous seas are possible in those waters.

This system will linger through Tuesday maintaining periods of
rain/showers with isolated thunderstorms (10-15%) possible this
afternoon and evening. Winds ease on Monday, but increasing westerly
swell will maintain steep seas through at least Wednesday morning. A
pattern change on Wedensday will bring the return of the thermal
trough and the associated gusty north winds and wind seas. /BR-y

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.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this
     afternoon to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

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