Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Medford, OR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
226 PM PDT Fri Aug 1 2025

.DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorms are ongoing this afternoon as an upper level
disturbance embedded in this deeper wave moves through the
forecast area. Convective Available Potential Energy(CAPE) remains
on the higher side than what we usually see for late July and we
should see some healthy cells tonight. The chance for severe
storms isn't that high on the other hand with lack luster 0-6km
shear around 15 to maybe 20 knots in some spots.

We also took a gander at the PWATs on the polar orbiting
satellites and those show pretty typical values ranging from 0.6
up to 0.8, so nothing incredibly wet or dry, but storms will be
slow movers, so things should trend wetter like the last few
days.

Otherwise, the persistent threat of thunderstorms continues into
Saturday, although the probabilities and the areal extend of
storms decreases. Again, no severe concerns here as CAPE is around
500 J/kg maybe 1000 in some spots with 15 knots of shear.

Things begin to change on Sunday as a trough passes through our
forecast area and brings more rain and thunderstorms to the
region. Highs will trend notably lower into the mid 80's to even
upper 70's west of the Cascades. These highs are 5 to even 10
degrees below normal for early August, which could be a welcome
change to some. These relatively cooler temperatures continue
into Monday before a warming trend mid week.

Highs push towards normal values this time of year with mid 90's
here in Medford and upper 80's west of the Cascades. No weather
impacts are anticipated for the region for next week as heat risk
is minimal/low given the time of year and how frequently we've
observed temperatures like this already. Perhaps the biggest risk
is an odd fire popping up and producing a lot of smoke, but that
seems to be moderate as well at this time.

-Smith

&&

.AVIATION...01/18Z TAFs...Marine stratus remains along the Oregon
coast, keeping IFR and LIFR levels in place. A break in the layer
and periods of gusty winds remain in the forecast in the early
afternoon, with winds calming and stratus rebuilding into the
evening.

Inland areas generally look to remain at VFR levels through the day.
Rain showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this
afternoon across most of the area. Coos, Curry, and western Douglas
county may not see activity develop. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are possible through the afternoon and evening, with
activity decreasing into the night. Thunderstorms can present
hazardous conditions, including lightning strikes, gusty and erratic
winds, and small hail or locally moderate to heavy rainfall. -TAD

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Friday, August 1, 2025...A thermal
trough will maintain gusty north winds south of Cape Blanco through
at least Sunday morning. This will result in conditions hazardous to
smaller crafts south of Cape Blanco and out to 30 nm through
Saturday night. Winds will be strongest and seas will be steepest
during the afternoons and evenings this weekend. Conditions might
improve by the early part of the week. Some data suggests this
thermal trough will remain in place early next week.

-Smith

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 PM PDT Friday, August 1, 2025...
Thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast for this afternoon and
evening, especially over the Siskiyou and Cascades ranges
according to the SPC HREF. Considering each model individually,
the amount of activity is not spectacular. One model (FV3) shows
developed cells with reflectivity over 40 dBZ moving over Jackson
and Josephine counties this afternoon, but other models in this
ensemble do not show this outcome. Model PWATS of 0.6-1.0 inches
west of the Cascades indicate that any thunderstorms that develop
will be wetter, and marginal winds aloft may result in activity
staying over terrain or moving slowly. Activity west of the
Cascades looks to be generally isolated and lasting a few hours
deeper into the evening. Fuel conditions are noted to be moderate
fire weather risk according to Wildland Fire Assessment
System(WFAS) and some energy release component plots. Given the
fuel conditions and the lack of ignitions gaining a foothold over
the last few events, a Red Flag Warning has not been issued this
afternoon in spite of the very good thunderstorm chances.
Activity should decrease into the nighttime hours.

Looking forward, weak forcing on Saturday afternoon and evening
currently limits thunderstorm chances to northern Lake and Klamath
counties, with additional slight chances in western Siskiyou County.
On Sunday, an upper trough will move over the area. This will bring
cooler temperatures across the area as well as periods of gusty
winds over elevated terrain. Additionally, instability around the
trough may help to bring thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon and
evening. Initial guidance shows some precipitation chances over and
east of the Cascades, but also currently has some timing variation.
There are also weak signals for activity to last into Sunday night
and early Monday morning. All of these are are relatively early
assessments. Even if a full product is not issued for Sunday
afternoon and evening, this could be a period of elevated concern.

Beyond Sunday, a more stable upper pattern has been in the forecast
for a few days and conditions for thunderstorms are not currently
expected. Warm and dry conditions are expected through the week,
with daytime highs possibly rising above seasonal averages by the
end of the week and into next weekend. -TAD/Smith

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM PDT Sunday
     for PZZ356-376.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Medford OR
359 PM PDT Fri Aug 1 2025

CAZ080-081-012345-
Central Siskiyou County CA-Western Siskiyou County CA-
359 PM PDT Fri Aug 1 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central
Siskiyou County through 445 PM PDT...

At 359 PM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Scott Bar, or 17 miles west of Yreka, moving northwest at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Scott Bar.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4176 12280 4163 12297 4175 12319 4191 12299
TIME...MOT...LOC 2259Z 134DEG 7KT 4175 12296

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

ANH

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