River Flood Warning 4, NWS Medford, OR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
359 AM PST Tue Feb 25 2025

.DISCUSSION...The effects of this past weekend's atmospheric
river and subsequent upper level trough passage on Monday are
tapering off on schedule. Gusty southwest winds over the higher
terrain and east of the Cascades have begun to diminish with peak
gusts of 55 mph, not quite to warning levels, recorded within the
past few hours at Summer Lake and Summit RAWS observation sites
in Lake County. The Coquille River at Coquille also is expected to
have just peaked within the past couple hours about a quarter of
a foot below flood stage.

A few light showers are tapering off from the coast to the
Cascades as a couple of shortwaves move through in a southwest to
west flow aloft. Snow levels will remain around 3500 feet, with
the risk ending by 10 AM this morning. Less than 2 inches of new
snow is expected from Crater Lake northward.

Clouds will diminish through the day with high pressure building
east into the western states this afternoon into Wednesday. This
will bring dry weather with seasonably cold mornings and warmer
than normal afternoons through Friday. Highs are not expected to
reach records, but readings up to 5 degrees above normal at the
coast and of 10 to 15 degrees above normal are expected inland.

Also starting tonight into Wednesday morning, and continuing
through Saturday morning, this will bring areas of late night into
early morning valley low clouds and fog with the highest
probability for Douglas and Josephine counties (including Roseburg
and Grants Pass). But, early morning patches are also possible in
Jackson County, especially along Bear Creek into Medford.

Our area is expected to remain between splitting troughs late
Thursday into early Friday with a widespread increase in high
clouds. Timing differences have diminished but are still mostly in
a range of around 12 hours apart. The southern branch of the next
splitting trough looks to bring precipitation with snow levels
around 6500 feet to the coast as early as Saturday morning, but
more likely later Saturday into Sunday.

Model differences then increase and are about evenly split regarding
whether the trough will linger over the area into early next week
or progress eastward. In either case, a seasonably active pattern
is most likely during next week.

&&

.AVIATION...25/12Z TAFs...VFR conditions are expected through most
ofthe TAF period. Stable conditions will set up this evening and
tonight. This in combination with recent moisture could set the
table up for low clouds and fog for many of the interior westside
valleys/ This includes Medford and Roseburg towards the end of the
TAF period, and this has been introduced in the TAF's. -Petrucelli

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 AM PST Tuesday, February 25, 2025...Southwest
winds will diminish this morning, but seas will remain very steep.
Swells will be at their peak this morning (between 22-24 feet), then
gradually diminishing this afternoon through tonight. Even though
seas will gradually diminish, they will remain very steep through
Wednesday morning.

There will be a brief period  between Wednesday afternoon into
Thursday morning where seas will drop below 10 feet, then westerly
swell will increase again Thursday afternoon with small craft
conditions likely for all of the waters that could last into Friday
morning. -Petrucelli

&&

.BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 200 AM PST Tuesday, February 25, 2025...
Breaking wave heights of 25 to 32 ft are expected into this
morning. A High Surf Warning is in effect north of Port Orford where
the largest breaking waves are expected with a High Surf Advisory
south of there. Hazardous beach conditions are expected during this
time, and these large breaking waves could inundate beaches and low
lying structures. Beach erosion will be possible, and exposed
infrastructure may be damaged. Avoid area beaches during this storm
through this morning. -Petrucelli

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...High Surf Warning until 10 AM PST this morning for ORZ021.

     High Surf Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for ORZ022.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning until 10 AM PST this
     morning for PZZ350-356-370-376.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM PST
     Wednesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&