River Flood Warning 3, NWS Medford, OR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
431 AM PST Mon Feb 24 2025

.DISCUSSION...Compared to yesterday, less rain but stronger winds
today.

A warm front is lifting north into northern Oregon
this morning, and it will take line of moderate precipitation
currently over the Prospect, Tiller, Roseburg, Elkton, and Coos
Bay areas northward to Crater Lake and Toketee Falls areas before
exiting. A cold front will follow and track eastward with
additional moderate rain for the coast before noon, and mostly light
rain inland through the afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms could
be embedded with the front, with the highest probability (around
20%) offshore and near the Douglas County coast, and also along
the southern Oregon Cascades into northern Klamath County.

With some contribution from today's rain, but mostly from
yesterday's runoff moving downstream, rises are expected on the
Coquille River at Coquille into this afternoon, with a peak
forecast at less than half a foot below flood stage.

Gusty south to southwest Winds will provide a more widespread
impact from mid-morning through the afternoon, except continuing
into early Tuesday morning for the east side. Winds will be
strongest in the typical locations, with gusts of 50 to 70 mph for
the coastal headlands, exposed locations along the Coast Highway
101, the southern Shasta Valley near Weed, from Silver Lake to
Paisley in Lake County, and over a wide swath of the higher
terrain in our region. Secondarily, gusts of 35 to 50 mph are also
expected in southwest Oregon and the Klamath Basin.

A High Surf Warning also remains in effect for southern Oregon
beaches from Port Orford northward, and a High Surf Advisory south
of Port Orford, both through Tuesday morning.

Snow levels will drop quickly behind the front early this evening,
with upslope enhanced light snow showers expected for the southern
Oregon Cascades into early Tuesday morning. Snow levels are
expected to fall to around 5000 feet by this evening and down to
around 3500 feet as flurries taper off early Tuesday morning.
Snowfall of around 2 to 5 inches is expected north of Lake of the
Woods, with a total of closer to 10 inches forecast for the high
country (above 6000 feet). The bulk of that higher accumulation
will come during the higher snow levels associated with today's
front. So, roadways in the Diamond Lake, Crater Lake, and
Willamette Pass areas can expect a light, but plowable snowfall,
while a measureable inch or so is possible for Lake of the Woods,
Union Creek, and Crescent by sunrise on Tuesday.

A weak, post-frontal shortwave trough may produce a few very light
showers on Tuesday, mainly for the coast and Douglas County. Cloud
cover will persist through Tuesday for southwest Oregon, with
cloud breaks increasing to the east and south for the east side
and northern California.

High pressure is expected to dominate our weather Wednesday
through Friday, with increased model agreement in our region being
between the lobes of a splitting trough. The southern edge of the
northern segment should make its presence known with an increase
in high level clouds Wednesday night into Thursday evening.

Model agreement quickly deteriorates late in the week, but general
agreement on the eventual arrival of a frontal system. This front
could arrive at the coast as early as Saturday morning, or as late
as Sunday morning but is most likely to be strong enough to
produce an area-wide rainfall with snow levels at least slightly
above normal, above 5000 feet, during the bulk of the event.

&&

.AVIATION...Low level wind speed shear will be the
main hazard today for the coast, including North Bend, Roseburg and
Medford until the stronger winds reach the surface which is expected
to be from late this morning through the afternoon. Winds could gust
up to 35 kts at North Bend, Roseburg and Medford this morning, then
winds will shift southwest and gradually subside this afternoon, but
will still be moderate to strong at times through at least 0z.

Ceilings will see saw from MVFR and VFR along the coast, including
North Bend this morning, then should remain VFR later in the
afternoon until the end of the TAF period.

Inland, ceilings have improved to VFR, However, the terrain is
expected to be partly obscured along and north of the Umpqua Divide
and areas surrounding Roseburg until 18z.

East of the Cascades. Moderate to strong winds are likely late this
morning through the afternoon with wind gusts near 35 kts at Klamath
Falls.

Freezing level is 8300 feet and should remain there into this
afternoon before lowering to around 4500 feet tonight. -Petrucelli

&&

.MARINE...Updated 230 AM PST Monday, February 24, 2025...A strong
low will develop near 130W and move northeastward then eventually
onshore near the WA/Canadian border, a classic set up for very
strong winds in our coastal waters. Widespread gales are likely this
morning and afternoon with a high probability (80-100%) of storm
force (>=55 kt) wind gusts, and a Storm Warning remains in effect
for that system. In addition, the strong winds will build extremely
steep, dangerous seas of 20-30 ft, highest in the north off
Florence, but still very steep from Gold Beach southward.

Winds ease from south to north tonight, but very steep seas will
persist into Tuesday. Things should continue to improve Wednesday,
but guidance has trended higher with a moderate long period west
swell (11-13 ft @ 15-17 seconds) building into the waters Wednesday
night into Thursday. -Petrucelli

&&

.BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 230 AM PST Monday, February 24, 2025...
Strong storm force winds will affect the marine waters today. This
will quickly build dangerous seas. When combined with an increasing
west swell, this will result in breaking wave heights of 25 to 32 ft
this afternoon into Tuesday morning. A High Surf Warning is in
effect north of Port Orford where the largest breaking waves are
expected with a High Surf Advisory south of there. Hazardous beach
conditions are expected during this time, and these large breaking
waves could inundate beaches and low lying structures. Beach erosion
will be possible, and exposed infrastructure may be damaged. Avoid
area beaches during this storm into Tuesday morning. -Petrucelli

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...High Wind Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM PST this
     evening for ORZ021-022-030-031.

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM PST Tuesday for
     ORZ023>026-029.

     Flood Watch until 10 AM PST this morning for ORZ021-022.

     High Surf Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM PST Tuesday
     for ORZ021.

     High Surf Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM PST Tuesday
     for ORZ022.

CA...High Wind Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM PST this
     evening for CAZ081-085.

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM PST Tuesday for
     CAZ084.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning until 4 AM PST early
     this morning for PZZ350-356-370-376.

     Storm Warning until 7 PM PST this evening for PZZ350-356-370-
     376.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Medford OR
513 AM PST Mon Feb 24 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0512 AM     Rain             Gold Beach              42.41N 124.42W
02/24/2025  M2.65 Inch       Curry              OR   Trained Spotter

            24 hour total ending at 5 am pst.

&&