River Flood Warning 13, NWS Medford, OR

949 
WGUS86 KMFR 162203
FLSMFR

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Medford OR
303 PM PDT Sun Mar 16 2025

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Oregon...

  Cow Creek near Riddle affecting Douglas County.

For the Cow Creek...including Azalea, Glendale, Riddle...Minor 
flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued late tonight at 315 AM PDT.

&&

ORC019-171015-
/O.EXT.KMFR.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-250317T1413Z/
/RDLO3.1.ER.250316T1748Z.250316T2100Z.250317T0213Z.NO/
303 PM PDT Sun Mar 16 2025

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Cow Creek near Riddle.

* WHEN...Until tomorrow morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 2:00 PM PDT Sunday the stage was 24.4 feet.
  - Bankfull stage is 18.0 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 2:00 PM PDT Sunday was 24.4 feet.
  - Forecast...The river will crest shortly and fall below flood
    stage later this evening.
  - Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    24.4 feet on 12/06/1981.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4291 12349 4293 12348 4296 12334 4294 12333
      4291 12340


$$

Smith

374 
WGUS46 KMFR 162208
FLWMFR

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Medford OR
308 PM PDT Sun Mar 16 2025

...Observed flooding changed from Minor to Moderate severity for the 
following rivers in Oregon...

  Cow Creek near Riddle affecting Douglas County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued late tonight at 315 AM PDT.

&&

ORC019-171015-
/O.CON.KMFR.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-250317T1413Z/
/RDLO3.2.ER.250316T1748Z.250316T2200Z.250317T0213Z.NO/
308 PM PDT Sun Mar 16 2025

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING...

* WHAT...Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is 
  forecast.

* WHERE...Cow Creek near Riddle.

* WHEN...Until tomorrow morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 3:00 PM PDT Sunday the stage was 25.1 feet.
  - Bankfull stage is 18.0 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 3:00 PM PDT Sunday was 25.1 feet.
  - Forecast...The river will crest shortly and fall below flood
    stage later this evening.
  - Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    25.0 feet on 01/17/1971.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4291 12349 4293 12348 4296 12334 4294 12333
      4291 12340


$$

Smith

884 
WGUS86 KMFR 162330
FLSMFR

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Medford OR
430 PM PDT Sun Mar 16 2025

...Forecast flooding changed from Minor to Moderate severity and 
increased in duration for the following rivers in Oregon...

  Cow Creek near Riddle affecting Douglas County.

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Oregon...

  Elk Creek near Drain affecting Douglas County.

  South Umpqua River at Roseburg affecting Douglas County.

  South Umpqua River near Winston affecting Douglas County.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Oregon...

  Umpqua River near Elkton affecting Douglas County.

  Deer Creek at Roseburg affecting Douglas County.

For the Cow Creek...including Riddle...Moderate flooding is forecast.
For the Deer Creek...including Roseburg...Major flooding is forecast.
For the Elk Creek - Douglas County...including Drain...Moderate 
flooding is forecast.
For the South Umpqua River...including Winston, Roseburg...Minor 
flooding is forecast.
For the Umpqua River...including Elkton...Minor flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Stay tuned to further developments by listening to your local radio, 
television, or NOAA Weather Radio for further information.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law 
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National 
Weather Service when you can do so safely.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued late tonight at 445 AM PDT.

&&

ORC019-171145-
/O.EXT.KMFR.FL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-250317T2023Z/
/RSBO3.1.ER.000000T0000Z.250317T0600Z.250317T0823Z.NO/
430 PM PDT Sun Mar 16 2025

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...South Umpqua River at Roseburg.

* WHEN...Until early Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 25.0 feet, Expect flooding to begin along Deer Creek 
  close to and at the confluence of the South Umpqua River.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - There is no current observed data.
  - Bankfull stage is 22.0 feet.
  - Forecast...The river will rise to 23.6 feet late this
    evening. It will then fall below flood stage just later
    tonight.
  - Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    24.0 feet on 11/23/1962.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

                  Fld   Observed           Forecasts (5 pm PDT)     
Location          Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Mon   Tue   Wed          

South Umpqua River
Roseburg          22.0  MSG   unknown      15.5  12.0  10.2         


&&

LAT...LON 4327 12347 4328 12344 4322 12333 4317 12335
      4319 12340


$$

ORC019-171145-
/O.EXT.KMFR.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-250317T1450Z/
/RDLO3.2.ER.250316T1748Z.250316T2300Z.250317T0250Z.NO/
430 PM PDT Sun Mar 16 2025

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MONDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is 
  forecast.

* WHERE...Cow Creek near Riddle.

* WHEN...Until Monday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 22.0 feet, Cow Creek is at flood stage. Flooding of 
  low-lying fields and structures begins at this point.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 4:00 PM PDT Sunday the stage was 25.5 feet.
  - Bankfull stage is 18.0 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 4:00 PM PDT Sunday was 25.5 feet.
  - Forecast...The river will peak around 25.5 feet this evening,
    then fall below flood stage later this evening or overnight.
  - Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    26.2 feet on 01/09/1995.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

         Fld   Observed           Forecasts (5 pm PDT)     
Location Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Mon   Tue   Wed          

Cow Creek
Riddle   22.0  25.5  Sun 4 pm PDT 12.7  8.6   6.4          


&&

LAT...LON 4291 12349 4293 12348 4296 12334 4294 12333
      4291 12340


$$

ORC019-171145-
/O.EXT.KMFR.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-250317T1634Z/
/ECDO3.2.ER.250316T1840Z.250317T0000Z.250317T0434Z.NO/
430 PM PDT Sun Mar 16 2025

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE MONDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is 
  forecast.

* WHERE...Elk Creek near Drain.

* WHEN...Until late Monday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 18.0 feet, Widespread flooding of low lands and 
  structures at this stage.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 4:15 PM PDT Sunday the stage was 19.0 feet.
  - Bankfull stage is 15.0 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 4:15 PM PDT Sunday was 19.0 feet.
  - Forecast...The river will peak at 19.2 feet this evening,
    then fall below flood stage late this evening or overnight.
  - Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    19.5 feet on 12/22/1964.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

         Fld   Observed           Forecasts (5 pm PDT)     
Location Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Mon   Tue   Wed          

Elk Creek
Drain    16.0  19.0  Sun 4 pm PDT 6.4   5.1   4.1          


&&

LAT...LON 4366 12336 4367 12331 4361 12327 4361 12329
      4364 12331


$$

ORC019-171145-
/O.EXT.KMFR.FL.W.0012.250317T0337Z-250318T0638Z/
/EKTO3.1.ER.250317T0337Z.250317T1200Z.250317T1838Z.NO/
430 PM PDT Sun Mar 16 2025

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING TO LATE MONDAY 
EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Umpqua River near Elkton.

* WHEN...From this evening to late Monday evening.

* IMPACTS...At 35.0 feet, The Umpqua River is at flood stage. Expect 
  low-land and agricultural flooding from the Kellog area through 
  Elkton to Scottsburg.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 3:15 PM PDT Sunday the stage was 25.1 feet.
  - Bankfull stage is 25.0 feet.
  - Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage this evening
    to 37.2 feet late tonight. It will then fall below flood
    stage late Monday morning.
  - Flood stage is 33.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    37.4 feet on 03/03/1972.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

            Fld   Observed           Forecasts (5 pm PDT)     
Location    Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Mon   Tue   Wed          

Umpqua River
Elkton      33.0  25.1  Sun 3 pm PDT 28.9  18.0  13.9         


&&

LAT...LON 4371 12376 4367 12348 4328 12341 4327 12347
      4338 12362


$$

ORC019-171145-
/O.EXT.KMFR.FL.W.0015.250317T0427Z-250317T1826Z/
/WSNO3.1.ER.250317T0427Z.250317T0600Z.250317T0626Z.NO/
430 PM PDT Sun Mar 16 2025

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING TO LATE MONDAY 
MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...South Umpqua River near Winston.

* WHEN...From this evening to late Monday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 26.0 feet, The South Umpqua River is at flood stage. 
  Low-land flooding can be expected from Winston upstream to Dillard.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 3:15 PM PDT Sunday the stage was 23.7 feet.
  - Bankfull stage is 22.0 feet.
  - Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage to 26.3 feet
    late this evening. It will then fall below flood stage
    overnight or Monday morning.
  - Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    26.6 feet on 12/31/2005.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

                  Fld   Observed           Forecasts (5 pm PDT)     
Location          Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Mon   Tue   Wed          

South Umpqua River
Winston           26.0  23.7  Sun 3 pm PDT 18.3  14.1  11.1         


&&

LAT...LON 4319 12340 4317 12335 4302 12327 4294 12333
      4310 12346


$$

ORC019-171145-
/O.CON.KMFR.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-250317T2159Z/
/DEEO3.3.ER.250316T1405Z.250317T0000Z.250317T0959Z.NR/
430 PM PDT Sun Mar 16 2025

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Major flooding is occurring and major flooding is forecast. 
  This is very near or at the highest flood on record.

* WHERE...Deer Creek at Roseburg.

* WHEN...Until early Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 12.0 feet, Widespread flooding of structures and 
  farmland is occurring.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 4:00 PM PDT Sunday the stage was 15.8 feet.
  - Bankfull stage is 10.0 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 4:00 PM PDT Sunday was 15.9 feet.
  - Forecast...The river will peak near 16.2 feet this evening,
    then fall below flood stage just later tonight or very early
    Monday morning.
  - Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    15.4 feet on 12/06/1981.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

          Fld   Observed           Forecasts (5 pm PDT)     
Location  Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Mon   Tue   Wed          

Deer Creek
Roseburg  10.0  15.8  Sun 4 pm PDT 5.4   4.9   4.5          


&&

LAT...LON 4321 12334 4322 12334 4322 12325 4321 12317
      4320 12324


$$

MAS

217 
WGUS86 KMFR 170134
FLSMFR

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Medford OR
634 PM PDT Sun Mar 16 2025

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Oregon...

  Cow Creek near Riddle affecting Douglas County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law 
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National 
Weather Service when you can do so safely.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued Monday morning at 600 AM PDT.

&&

ORC019-171300-
/O.CON.KMFR.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-250317T1450Z/
/RDLO3.1.ER.250316T1748Z.250316T2345Z.250317T0314Z.NO/
634 PM PDT Sun Mar 16 2025

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MONDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring.

* WHERE...Cow Creek near Riddle.

* WHEN...Until tomorrow morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 6:00 PM PDT Sunday the stage was 24.9 feet.
  - Bankfull stage is 18.0 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 6:00 PM PDT Sunday was 25.6 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is falling and is expected to fall below
    flood stage later this evening and then below bankfull by
    early Monday morning.
  - Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

         Fld   Observed           Forecasts (5 pm PDT)     
Location Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Mon   Tue   Wed          

Cow Creek
Riddle   22.0  24.9  Sun 6 pm PDT 12.7  8.6   6.4          


&&

LAT...LON 4291 12349 4293 12348 4296 12334 4294 12333
      4291 12340


$$

MAS

818 
WGUS86 KMFR 171131
FLSMFR

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Medford OR
431 AM PDT Mon Mar 17 2025

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Oregon...

  Cow Creek near Riddle affecting Douglas County.

ORC019-171245-
/O.CAN.KMFR.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-250317T1131Z/
/RDLO3.1.ER.250316T1748Z.250316T2345Z.250317T0627Z.NO/
431 AM PDT Mon Mar 17 2025

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Cow Creek near Riddle.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 4:00 AM PDT Monday the stage was 19.8 feet.
  - Bankfull stage is 18.0 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below bankfull this
    afternoon.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

         Fld   Observed           Forecasts (5 am PDT)     
Location Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Tue   Wed   Thu          

Cow Creek
Riddle   22.0  19.8  Mon 4 am PDT 10.4  7.4   6.6          


&&

LAT...LON 4291 12349 4293 12348 4296 12334 4294 12333
      4291 12340


$$

BR-y

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1039 AM PDT Sun Mar 16 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...

We've been receiving plenty of flooding reports this morning
around Douglas County as the axis of heavy rain has been hitting
that region for the last 12 hours. Ensemble forecast data
continues to point at this being an unusually strong and wet
QPF/snow event for mid March and some of the daily records will
likely fall for our climate sites. Roseburg has observed 2.80
inches over the last 24 hours, which is a very healthy chunk of
rain for that area. The front and axis of heavy precipitation will
continue to sag south through the day and the flooding threat
will increase for urban areas in Jackson and Josephine County
through the remainder of the morning hours and early afternoon.

We'll also have to keep an eye on some of the major rivers, like
the Coquille River near Coquille. That river will move very close
to major flood at 25 feet, and that could impact a few
residential areas near the river by late tonight and early Monday
morning based on historical impact records in our hydro database.

As for snow, the previous AFD stated that snow hasn't been as bad,
although latest tripcheck reports shows the roads closed in the
high Cascades near Diamond Lake. This is likely due to heavy snow
load on the trees over the last 24 hours. The latest snow
measurements say 6 inches, although that is likely a low
measurement based on the QPF data we've seen across the region.
Using a 10:1 or lower ratio, its likely around 2 feet of snow is
on the ground near Diamond Lake.

Winds hazards will continue to drop off through the day as the
front sags south and wind gusts trend lower along the coast and
within southern Oregon. Quail Prairie in the higher terrain @3000
feet in Curry County is still gusting to 65mph as of typing this
AFD, so we might extend that high wind warning out a few hour more
hours along the coast.

-Smith

&&

..AVIATION...16/18Z TAFs...A strong low level jet persists across
the region this morning with speeds around 60kt at roughly 1500-
2000ft for inland areas. Rain showers are also expected to impact
the terminals today with coverage becoming more isolated to
scattered later this afternoon and tonight. Generally looking at VFR
to MVFR through this TAF cycle. A second front will arrive tonight,
bringing freezing (snow levels) from 5000 ft to 2000 ft overnight.

-Schaaf

&&

.MARINE...Updated 845 AM Saturday, March 16, 2025...Southerly
winds with gale gusts are expected to continue through the morning
hours for areas mainly south of Cape Blanco, building very steep and
hazardous seas through the day. South winds are expected to shift
west and diminishing from north to south through the late morning
hours. While wind speeds are expected to diminish, seas will remain
very steep and hazardous through this afternoon. Thereafter, steep
seas will continue through Monday afternoon for all waters. Winds
and seas are expected to gradually diminish Monday with below
advisory conditions possible Tuesday. Active weather could return
midweek and bring further unsettled conditions starting Wednesday as
strong southerly winds build steep seas once again.

-Guerrero/Schaaf

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 424 AM PDT Sun Mar 16 2025/

DISCUSSION...An atmospheric river event is well underway this
morning. Persistent onshore flow directed in a SW-NE fashion is
aimed directly into Lane, Douglas, Coos and Curry counties. Water
vapor imagery is showing the 300-400 mi wide band of high IVT (500
kg/m/sec) extending from the Oregon coast back to just north of
Hawaii, a strong indicator that the air mass is of subtropical
origin. This fire hose has been aimed at southern Oregon for the
past several hours, with the heaviest rainfall and highest
rainfall rates falling north of a line that spans roughly from
Crescent City across Medford to Crater Lake and into northern
Klamath County. In areas north of that line, 0.10-0.30"/hr
rainfall rates have persisted, but orographic ascent is aiding
precip production in the Curry Coast Ranges and is resulting in
some rates approaching 0.50"/hr at sites like Red Mound RAWS and
Flynn Prairie RAWS. There is a fairly sharp gradient in
precipitation totals so far. Over the past 6 hours (as of ~3 am
PST), totals north of that line range from 0.50"-0.75" for
portions of Josephine and Douglas Counties, 1.00"-1.50" along the
Coast and 1.50"-2.00" across the higher terrain of the Curry Coast
Ranges and the Rogue-Umpqua Divide. Meanwhile, south of that line
only a few hundreths to 0.10" have been recorded.

Overall, not much change in the current situation is expected
through the morning hours aside from some slight wobbling of the
front to the south. Hi-res models are showing precip rates could
peak between 12z-18z this morning, when some locations could see
up to 0.50-0.75"/hour rates, at least for a short duration of 1-3
hr. When all is totaled up, rain amounts of 3 to 6 inches will be
common along the coast, into the Umpqua Basin and over to the
Cascade Foothills. As mentioned earlier, orographic lift will
likely aid precip in the coast range mountains resulting in some
totals exceeding 8 inches. South of the Rogue/Umpqua Divide,
rainfall will likely be 1-3 inches, with the lower amounts
expected in the southern Rogue Valley. Many headlines are out for
the heavy rainfall, with areal flood watches up west of the
Cascades as well as many river/stream forecast point flood
watches/warnings. This includes Deer Creek at Roseburg, Elk Creek
at Drain, South Umpqua at Elkton, Coquille at Coquille, the South
and North Forks Coquille at Myrtle Point and the Rogue River at
Agness. Please see water@noaa.gov for the specifics on those
particular rivers and be on the lookout for more potential flood
advisories/warnings through the day today. Please do not drive
through flooded roadways. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Turn around, don't drown.

Meanwhile, snow levels are hovering around 5000 ft in the
Cascades, and heavy snow is resulting in dangerous conditions. By
the time this event is over, snow totals will be measured in FEET
up at Crater Lake. Snowfall rates of 1"/hr up that way are nearly
certain with a 90-100% chance through the afternoon, and even a
60-90% chance of 2"/hr as well. Winter Storm Warnings remain out
for the Cascades/Siskiyous through this evening. Heavier precip
rates are keeping the snow level lower on Highway 97 north of
Chiloquin, whereas to the south, Klamath Falls and Lakeview are
both solidly in the warm sector with little or no precip. A winter
storm warning is out for northern Klamath and parts of northern
Lake County also through this evening. It should be noted, that
very strong winds are expected along with this heavy snow, and
periods of very low visibilities are expected. This is most likely
up in the Cascades and higher elevations east of the Cascades, so
it's best to remain out of those areas until this event is over.
Details on these winter weather hazards can be found at WSWMFR. An
interesting caveat to the snow level is on the back side of the
heavy precip later this morning/early afternoon. Models are
showing the snow level dropping to around 2500-3000 feet, which
could impact the Cascades Foothills (Highway 138 near Toketee
Falls) with a changeover to snow. So be aware of that possibility.
Some guidance is showing it getting down to 2000 feet, but the
probability of that occurring is very small (less than 10%
chance).

Speaking of strong winds, there is a plethora of High Wind
Warnings and Wind Advisories spanning the area. So far, gusts of
55 to 60 mph have been recorded along the coast, across the higher
terrain, the Shasta Valley and portions of the East Side/NorCal.
Meanwhile, gusty southwest winds are surfacing in parts of the
Illinois Valley and Umpqua Basin where we have a Wind Advisory in
place. Winds will gradually ease from northwest to southeast as
the day progresses, with an overall downward trend by this
evening. Please see NPWMFR for more details.

Another low pressure currently out near 140W will approach the
coast this afternoon, and be the catalyst for pushing this front
along. This will push the bulk of the precipitation south and
eastward, and areas east of the Cascades will get their share of
precipitation late this afternoon and evening. Snowfall will ease
up along the Cascades, and we'll likely see a transition from rain
to snow over the East Side as the frontal boundary presses east
of the Cascades this evening. This transition is likely to happen
as the heavier precipitation is easing up over there, so while
there may be some heavier snow amounts in the higher terrain,
snowfall overnight tonight will be fairly light with generally 1-2
inches expected tonight through Monday. The exception could be
along the Warners of Modoc County where advisory level snow
amounts are possible and could impact Cedar Pass on Highway 299.
For areas west of the Cascades, snow levels are likely to hover
around the 2500 ft mark, though some guidance shows the potential
for pockets of snow levels down to 1500 ft as a round of moisture
(considerably lighter than what's currently occurring) moves
through the region. This could bring some light snow during the
early morning hours on Monday to some of the passes north of
Grants Pass (Sexton, Canyon Creek, Camas Valley). If these lower
snow levels materialize, it's not out of the question to see some
snow flakes in the West Side Valleys, but at this time, any
accumulations should be minimal if any at all.

The upper trough swings through on Monday, maintaining widespread
showers across the region. Snow levels will hover around 3000 ft
during the day Monday, and with the hit/miss nature of showers,
any winter impacts should be limited to where showers are most
persistent. Showers will taper off late Monday into Tuesday when
we'll catch a break in this active pattern, giving the river
systems time to recede/recover. This break in the weather will be
short lived with another front quickly moving in late Wednesday
(more typical for this time of year) and active weather continuing
through the latter half of the week and into the following
weekend. We'll focus in on details with these upcoming systems
once we're past this current atmospheric river. /BR-y/Spilde

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for
     ORZ027>031.

     Flood Watch through this evening for ORZ021>026.

     High Wind Warning until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for ORZ021-022-
     031.

     Wind Advisory until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for ORZ024-026-029-
     030.

CA...Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ080-082-
     083.

     Flood Watch through this evening for CAZ080.

     High Wind Warning until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for CAZ081-084-
     085.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 AM PDT
     Monday for CAZ085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Gale Warning until 11 AM PDT this morning
     for PZZ356-376.

     Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ350-
     356-370-376.

     Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM PDT Monday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Medford OR
738 AM PDT Sun Mar 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0737 AM     Flood            5 ENE Elkton            43.67N 123.48W
03/16/2025                   Douglas            OR   911 Call Center

            ODOT and Douglas County Dispatch reports a
            landslide along Highway 38 around MP 27.

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Medford OR
739 AM PDT Sun Mar 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0738 AM     Flood            1 NNW Roseburg          43.23N 123.37W
03/16/2025                   Douglas            OR   911 Call Center

            Douglas County Dispatch reports high water
            on the road on Strip Parkway and Garden
            Valley Road.

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Medford OR
751 AM PDT Sun Mar 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0751 AM     Flood            6 SE Charleston         43.28N 124.23W
03/16/2025                   Coos               OR   Dept of Highways

            ODOT reports a landslide/rockfall on Highway
            42 at milepost 1 and 1.5.

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Medford OR
754 AM PDT Sun Mar 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0753 AM     Flood            2 NW Powers             42.91N 124.11W
03/16/2025                   Coos               OR   Dept of Highways

            ODOT reports a landslide on Oregon 542 at
            Milepost 15.

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Medford OR
930 AM PDT Sun Mar 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0929 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 5 N Weed                41.49N 122.37W
03/16/2025  M43 MPH          Siskiyou           CA   Trained Spotter

            Measured a wind gust to 43 a few minutes
            ago, now gusting to 38 mph.

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Medford OR
1023 AM PDT Sun Mar 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1002 AM     Flood            Sixes                   42.82N 124.48W
03/16/2025                   Curry              OR   Dept of Highways

            ODOT reports high water across Highway 101
            with a photo.

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