High Wind Warning 15, NWS Medford, OR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1012 AM PST Wed Dec 24 2025

.UPDATE...Aviation Discussion Updated.

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.AVIATION...24/18Z TAFs...A front is moving across the area today.
Strong, gusty winds will continue from the Cascades eastward into
early this afternoon, then winds will trend lower. Ceilings are
mainly VFR across inland areas with areas of MVFR ceilings along the
coast. Expect lower ceilings along the coast to lift to VFR around
21z. Showers will decrease between 21-00z over southwest Oregon,
becoming isolated. Expect areas of showers to continue in portions
of Northern California.

Another low approaches the coast tonight and early Thursday morning.
Expect rain and mountain snow to spread into northern California and
rain to spread along the coast, with a mix of MVFR/IFR and
widespread mountain obscurations.  Snow may develop at Mount Shasta
City by late Thursday morning as snow level lower locally in
southern Siskiyou County. Inland, over southwest oregon expect areas
of rain and mountain snow to develop late tonight and early Thursday
with areas of MVFR, including at Klamath Falls.

Strong, gusty south to southeast winds are likely to develop over
the mountains and east of the Cascades and in the Shasta Valley as
this low nears the area. Areas that do not get the strong winds, are
expected to see periods of low level wind shear late tonight and
Thursday morning. Breezy southeast winds are expected at Medford
tonight into Thursday morning which is expected to limit the
development of any lower stratus tonight. At Roseburg there is a 25%
chance for IFR tonight before rain showers move into the area.
However, with guidance is leaning towards VFR at this times. So have
kept Roseburg VFR and will monitor for lower conditions.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 431 AM PST Wed Dec 24 2025/

DISCUSSION...Radar is showing moderate to heavy precipitation moving
over northern California and southern Oregon as a surface low moves
northward over the Pacific. Gusty winds are generally limited to
elevated areas on either side of the Cascades early this morning,
but maximum gusts in the 40 to 50 mph range are showing up. Acorn
Woman Peak (near the Oregon/California border) and Calimus
(Northeast of Klamath Falls) both have observed gusts exceeding 60
mph. Gusty winds are also funneling in to the Shasta Valley, where
Weed Airport has observed winds near 50 mph.

There's growing agreement in model runs that this surface low is
going to turn eastward and move inland early this morning rather
than stay over the water. This outcome would keep strong winds out
of most west side valleys. As mentioned, the Shasta Valley is
already getting gusty winds. Winds orienting with the southeast
Rogue Valley could bring periods of gusty winds from Ashland to
Medford. And confidence remains high that gusty winds will move
across areas east of the Cascades later this morning. While periods
of breezy to gusty winds are possible along the coast and west side
valleys through the morning, the most impactful outcomes are looking
less likely.

Precipitation is forecast to continue moving the area from the south
this morning, with the Mount Shasta region (Weed, Mount Shasta City,
McCloud) and Curry County seeing the highest amounts. Current snow
levels of 7000 feet or more will drop to 4500-5000 feet through the
day, but snowfall will be limited as precipitation starts to decrease
this afternoon and evening. Winds across the evening should also
dissipate by this evening.

This decrease in activity will be brief as a cutoff upper low
develops in the lingering trough, bringing a cooler air mass and
another round of precipitation late tonight and into Christmas day.
With southerly flow aloft continuing, the Mount Shasta region will
see the first showers from this system and will see the steadiest
precipitation through Thursday and Friday. Coastal headlands and area
terrain are expected to see gusty winds on Thursday. Winter weather
is expected with this second system, given that southerly flow and
snow levels dropping to 4500 feet on Thursday afternoon and 3500-
4000 feet on Friday. Terrain in Siskiyou county could see 1 to 3
feet of snow, and Mount Ashland could see 1 foot of snow. Snowfall on
Interstate 5 between Dunsmuir and Weed, Highway 89 south of Mount
Shasta, and Cascades passes are a concern for Thursday evening into
Friday morning given holiday travel. Light snowfall is expected
across basins and valleys east of the Cascades and more substantial
snowfall over terrain.

A calmer period remains in to forecast for the weekend and into next
week as the upper trough breaks down and an upper ridge develops
over the Pacific. Long term guidance shows this ridge flattening
towards the end of the week, allowing activity to return early in
2026. -TAD

MARINE...Updated 200 PM PST Monday, December 22, 2025...Two
potentially significant storm systems will impact the area through
Christmas. The first, quick-moving system, arrives late Tuesday
through Wednesday morning and the second, slower-moving system,
arrives late Wednesday night and persists into Friday morning.

There is STILL quite a range in solutions (and therefore, low
confidence) for the first system as it moves south to north along
the coast. This brings a wide range of possible scenarios in terms
of wind strength over the marine waters since the position of the
low is uncertain. Most of the guidance maintains that the low will
run up the coast just offshore, producing strong gale force winds
and very steep seas. This is the most likely scenario and is what
the official forecast reflects. Two other scenarios, which lie
closer to the extremes (on both ends) are possible, however.
Stronger model solutions (about a 20-30% chance) show a period of
southerly storm force winds occurring during the early morning hours
Wednesday, that quickly shift the west in the late afternoon as
winds wrap around the back side of the low. Weaker solutions
(similar %) move the low into Cape Mendocino and keep the strongest
winds to our south. With crab season well underway, and given the
upcoming holiday, have erred on the side of caution and issued a
Gale Warning, mentioning the potential for storm force gusts.

The second system remains farther offshore on Thursday and lingers
over a longer period of time into Friday morning. Confidence is
higher regarding some details with this system as guidance is in
better agreement, but another round of gales is likely with this
storm. Both systems will also bring a round of very steep and
hazardous seas and potentially hazardous bar crossings. Winds will
gradually ease late Friday, but seas are likely to remain steep into
early Saturday. Once the Christmas system moves out of the region,
the overall weather pattern looks to settle down over the weekend,
possibly into next week, and conditions will improve overall with
light to moderate north winds. -BPN/BR-y/Spilde

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...High Wind Watch from 10 PM PST this evening through Thursday
     morning for ORZ029>031.

     High Wind Warning until 1 PM PST this afternoon for ORZ027>031.

CA...Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Friday for CAZ080-082>085.

     High Wind Watch from 10 PM PST this evening through Thursday
     morning for CAZ081-085.

     High Wind Warning until 1 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ084-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Gale Warning until 10 PM PST Thursday for
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&