Gale Warning 36, NWS Medford, OR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
411 AM PST Tue Dec 23 2025

.DISCUSSION...Southerly flow aloft is guiding atmospheric moisture
into northern California and parts of southern Oregon early this
morning. Currently, radar shows showers over Siskiyou and Modoc
counties as well as southern Lake county. Later this morning,
showers will reach into eastern Jackson, southern Klamath, and
western Lake counties. By the afternoon, this moisture will bring
showers to western Siskiyou, western Jackson, and southern Josephine
and Curry counties. For most areas, these amounts will be light.
Steady rainfall will bring 1 to 2 inches of precipitation to Weed,
Mount Shasta City, Dunsmuir, and McCloud. Other areas in Siskiyou
County look to get between 0.25 and 1 inches. Initial snow levels of
5000-5500 feet may allow for snow showers on Highway 97 and Sawyers
Bar Road this morning, but snow levels rising to 6000-7000 feet in
the afternoon look to turn precipitation into rain showers while
snowfall continues over peaks and valleys.

Uncertainty remains in the forecast for Tuesday evening into
Wednesday, although some amount of activity is likely. A compact
surface low approaching from the south will be the source of these
impacts, but the path of this low seems to vary with almost every
model. If this low stays over the Pacific, strong winds are possible
across the area. If this low moves inland over northern California,
winds impacts may be limited to breezy conditions over terrain and
little else. To help illustrate the uncertainty, the interquartile
range of HREF sustained winds for Medford on Wednesday morning is
between 8 and 27 mph. Or in other words, those outcomes have an
equal 25% chance of occurring. At the more extreme end, HREF shows a
10% chance of sustained winds reaching 30-45 mph across the area and
gusts of 50 to 75 mph possible through Wednesday morning as the low
travels north. The orientation of winds into west side valleys will
also play a role for local impacts. Current high-resolution guidance
does generally keep the low over the Pacific to some degree which
brings some amount of gusty winds, although one high-res model does
show the less impactful path over northern California. Given the
small scale of this low, additional runs of high-resolution models
today will help to solidify a more confident forecast. For the
moment, awareness of the impacts as well as the chances can guide
preparation. This period will certainly be a focus of today's
afternoon update, given the holiday travel period.

The effects of this low are not limited to winds. The Mount Shasta
region could see another 2 to 3 inches of rainfall from Tuesday
evening into Wednesday morning while coastal areas could see 1 to
1.5 inches. With snow levels remaining at 6000-7500 feet in this
period, snowfall will be limited to area peaks and ridgelines. Other
areas look to see 0.33 inches or less of precipitation. Of course,
these forecast amounts result from a certain path for the first low,
and updated information could cause changes.

After a brief period of minor showers on Wednesday afternoon and
evening, activity resumes from Wednesday night through as late as
Friday afternoon. For this period, an upper low drops into the
trough and brings cooler air with it. Continuing southerly flow
would keep precipitation focused on the Mount Shasta region as well
as terrain along the southern border of western Siskiyou County.
With forecast snow levels dropping to 5000 feet on Thursday morning
and 4000 feet on Friday morning, upslope flow could bring 1 to 4
feet of snow to terrain in these areas. This looks to be most
impactful for Sawyers Bar Road west of Etna, but Snowmans Pass could
see snow showers as well. The most recent forecast has only light
snow showers for Interstate 5 between Highway 89 and Weed. Cascades
passes could also see snow showers, but current amounts look short
of Advisory levels. At lower elevations, another round of light to
moderate rainfall is forecast. Areas east of the Cascades could see
scattered snow showers on Friday, with total amounts staying below
an inch away from area terrain.

In the long term, the upper trough weakens late Friday. An upper
ridge looks to take its place, with deterministic imagery keeping
this ridge in place through next week. Ensemble guidance is showing
growing agreement with this outcome, although some ECMWF members
show some chances for coastal showers towards midweek. Overall, 2025
looks to end with more stable conditions than Christmas Eve and Day
are expecting. -TAD

&&

.AVIATION...23/12Z TAFs...A warm front is bringing rain showers to
Siskiyou and Modoc counties at the start of the TAF period. Showers
look to reach into southern Oregon through this morning and
afternoon, with VFR to MVFR levels generally expected through the
TAF period. Passing showers may bring locally lower ceilings and
visibilities as well.

Gusty winds are expected along and east of the Cascades as well as
around Mount Shasta this evening through the end of the TAF period.
Periods of gusty winds are also possible west of the Cascades. Low
level wind shear will develop over area terrain this evening and
tonight, then spread across the area through the end of the TAF
period. The warm front will keep snow levels in the 5500-7000 foot
range tonight into early Wednesday morning. -TAD

&&

.MARINE...Updated 850 PM PST Monday, December 22, 2025...Winds
gradually ease tonight into Tuesday, but seas will remain steep.

Two potentially significant storm systems will impact the area this
week...the first, quick-moving system, arrives late Tuesday through
Wednesday morning and the second, slower-moving system, arrives late
Wednesday night and persists into Friday morning.

There is STILL quite a range in solutions (and therefore, low
confidence) for the first system as it moves south to north along
the coast. This brings a wide range of possible scenarios in terms
of wind strength over the marine waters since the position of the
low is uncertain. Most of the guidance maintains that gale force
winds and very steep seas are the most likely scenario and this is
what the forecast reflects. Two other scenarios, which lie closer to
the extremes (on both ends) are possible, however. Stronger model
solutions (about a 20-30% chance) show a period of southerly storm
force winds occurring during the early morning hours Wednesday.
Weaker solutions (similar %) move the low into Cape Mendocino and
keep the strongest winds to our south. We will maintain the gale
watch and allow future shifts to upgrade as new information becomes
available.

The second system remains farther offshore on Thursday and lingers
over a longer period of time into Friday morning. Confidence is
higher regarding some details with this system as guidance is in
better agreement, but another round of gales is likely with this
storm. Both systems will also bring a round of very steep and
hazardous seas and difficult bar crossings. Winds will gradually
ease late Friday, but seas are likely to remain steep into early
Saturday. Once the Christmas system moves out of the region, the
overall weather pattern looks to settle down over the weekend,
possibly into next week, and conditions will improve overall.
/BR-y/Spilde

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...High Wind Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM PST
     Wednesday for ORZ029>031.

     Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM PST Wednesday for
     ORZ023>026.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM PST
     Wednesday for ORZ027-028.

CA...Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Friday for CAZ080-082>085.

     High Wind Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM PST
     Wednesday for CAZ081-084-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this
     evening for PZZ350-356-370-376.

     Gale Watch from this evening through Wednesday afternoon for
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&