Gale Warning 34, NWS Medford, OR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
958 AM PST Mon Dec 15 2025

.Updated Aviation Discussion.

.DISCUSSION...Radar image shows a line of light showers moving
from west to east towards the Rogue Valley with mainly isolated
showers over the marine waters. The showers are along and ahead of
a front that is moving into the area. The high res guidance shows
showers increasing in coverage area late this morning into the
afternoon. For the most part showers will be light to occasionally
moderate. Precipitation will then shift into northern Cal this
evening as the front moves south, then we will catch a relative
break in the weather tonight with precipitation far and few in
between tonight. Adjustments were made to the forecast for today
and tonight to line up better with the operational models and
high res guidance which all show similar solutions. The one
notable change was to adjust precipitation lower today and
tonight.

-Petrucelli

&&

.AVIATION...15/18z TAFs...The main concern ion the short term will
be low level wind speed shear along the coast into early this
afternoon, including North Bend. Stronger winds should surface at
North Bend early this afternoon, and at the same time winds aloft
will be diminishing, thus ending the concern for low level wind
speed shear. MVFR and occasional IFR ceilings are expected in
precipitation through the TAF period, although could not rule out
brief periods of VFR ceilings this evening and tonight as the bulk
of the precipitation shifts south, but confidence is not high enough
to include improving conditions in the TAF.

Inland west of the Cascades, VFR ceilings are being observed and
should last for most of the afternoon, the exception will be in
Roseburg as the front moves south bringing lowering ceilings and
partial mountain obscuration north of the Umpqua Divide between 21-
22z. The medford terminal should remain VFR through 0z, then
ceilings will lower as the front moves in. Once the front moves
south, there could be enough clearing along with a more stable
atmosphere and ample low level moisture for low clouds and fog to
develop late tonight into Tuesday morning for the Valleys, including
the Roseburg and Medford terminals. The timing of when the lower
conditions develop in the TAF could change, so watch for updates.

East of the Cascades, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF
period, although the higher terrain could be partly obscured towards
0z, with ceilings possibly hovering towards 3000 feet at Klamath
Falls for a few hours this evening. -Petrucelli

&&

.MARINE...Updated 800 AM PST Monday, December 15, 2025...South gales
will gradually ease later this morning, but very steep and hazardous
seas will continue into the afternoon. Conditions briefly improve
this evening as winds ease. Seas will remain elevated, but become
less steep and transition to swell dominated. Conditions worsen
again late Tuesday as a stronger front moves through the region,
likely bringing another quick round of southerly gales and very
steep and hazardous seas Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Much
like today, seas will remain steep as winds ease late Wednesday
morning, but conditions will deteriorate again late Wednesday night
into Thursday as southerly gales are likely to return. Active
weather will continue into the weekend. /BR-y

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...High Wind Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon
     for ORZ030-031.

CA...High Wind Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon
     for CAZ085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning until 4 PM PST this
     afternoon for PZZ350-356-370-376.

     Gale Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for PZZ350-370.

&&