Gale Warning 10, NWS Medford, OR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1030 PM PDT Mon Mar 17 2025

.UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion.

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.AVIATION...18/06Z TAFs...Isolated to scattered very light showers
are expected, mainly from the coast to the Cascades, through Tuesday
afternoon. This will continue to produce areas of terrain
obscurations. VFR with areas of MVFR conditions and local IFR are
expected through Tuesday morning, becoming VFR areawide Tuesday
afternoon as showers taper off. Areas of MVFR and local IFR are
primarily expected along the coast, into Douglas county (including
Roseburg, KRBG) and at Medford (KMFR).

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.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 947 PM PDT Mon Mar 17 2025/

DISCUSSION...Rivers are coming down, but are still running high
this evening. Coquille at Coquille is in moderate flood (just
above 24.0 feet) and appears to have peaked earlier today. The
expectation there is that the river will slowly fall over the next
24 hours, eventually settling below flood stage later Wednesday
or Wednesday night. The latest stage at the South Fork Coquille at
Myrtle Point is right at minor flood (33.0 feet), but should
continue to drop tonight. We should be able to cancel that warning
shortly. Rogue River near Agness will take some more time, but it
is gradually falling. It is expected to fall below flood stage
sometime Tuesday, probably afternoon/evening.

We are on the back side of an upper level trough this evening.
Another short wave disturbance will move into Washington and
northern Oregon overnight and with moist, onshore flow, some
showers will continue at the coast and over to the Cascades
through Tuesday, but with fairly light QPF. Showers won't
completely go away Tuesday, but coverage should be less as a short
wave ridge axis moves onshore later in the day. A period of dry
weather for most areas is expected overnight Tuesday into
Wednesday morning, then the next Pacific frontal system will
approach the coast. This will bring increasing south winds along
the coast and in the Shasta Valley. We have added High Wind
Watches for these areas for Wednesday as model presure gradients
of -7 to -9 mb for both KOTH-KACV and KMFR-KRDD and 850-700mb
wind speeds of 55-70 kt support warning level (>58 mph) wind
gusts. Expect gusty winds to spread east of the Cascades as well
Wednesday afternoon. Confidence wasn't high enough over there to
issue a watch yet, but could see gusts of 55-60 mph (highest gusts
over higher terrain). Perhaps a wind advisory may be sufficient
over there. Some snow will fall in the mountains and a winter
storm watch was already in place for the Cascades/Siskiyous. This
will not be nearly as much snow as just occurred during the past
few days, but some impactful snow is likely nonetheless.
When it boils down to it, advisories may cover the main winter
impacts and with snow levels generally above 3500 feet, the
impacts will be mainly for the higher passes and above. -Spilde

MARINE...Updated 800 PM Monday, March 17, 2025...North to northwest
winds will trend lower tonight into Tuesday morning. West seas will
remain steep this evening, mainly for areas south of Cape Blanco,
then trend slightly lower tonight. Seas are likely to become steep
again Tuesday night ahead of the next front. This front is expected
to move into the area on Wednesday and will likely bring gales and
steep to very steep seas. Current probabilities indicate a 50-80
percent chance for 40 mph gusts or greater over the waters on
Wednesday. Seas will then likely remain steep through the end of the
week.

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.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening
     for ORZ021-022.

     Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Friday
     evening for ORZ027-028.

CA...High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening
     for CAZ081.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through
     Wednesday evening for PZZ350-356-370-376.

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