Gale Warning 1, NWS Medford, OR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1011 PM PST Fri Jan 3 2025

...Updated AVIATION discussion for 06Z TAFs...

.DISCUSSION...The cold front is making progress and is along the
Cascades as of this writing. Behind the front, precipitation has
diminished and become showery which is typical in the wake of a cold
front and as an upper trough moves overhead. Cold air aloft is
moving over the waters resulting in increased instability which
could result in an isolated thunderstorm or two over the marine
waters and immediate coast.

Snow levels are lowering, however, roads over the higher passes are
wet with some slush in spots and this should remain the case for the
remainder of the daylight hours.

Showers will continue through tonight as an upper trough moves
overhead. Snow levels are expected to lower between 3500 and 4000
feet early Saturday morning. Therefore snow covered roads are more
likely around Diamond Lake, Crater lake and Lake of the Woods. A
Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for the Cascades this
evening into Saturday morning. However precipitation amounts are not
expected to be as much as what we expected previously for the
Cascades. This is bring supported by some of the high res guidance
which suggest showers will be light to occasionally moderate.

Upper ridging builds over the area Saturday, but a warm front will
approach the area in the afternoon, therefore any break in
precipitation will be brief. If nothing else, precipitation is
expected to be mainly light, until late Saturday afternoon, then
increasing some Saturday night north ofthe Umpqua Divide, along the
coast, coastal mountains and northern Cascades. Snow levels will
gradually rise to 4500 feet late Saturday afternoon, and will
continue to rise Saturday night into Sunday and will be around 6500
feet Sunday afternoon.

Weak upper ridging will build in Sunday, but another warm front will
move through bringing light to occasionally moderate precipitation
mainly along and west of the Cascades. The coast and north Cascades
should have the best chance of getting moderate precipitation.

Another, upper trough will move through Monday, with more light to
occasionally moderate precipitation, with snow levels around 6000
feet.

All signs are pointing towards a drying trend next Tuesday and
possibly lasting into the rest of next week with strong upper
ridging building over the Pac NW, although the ensemble means do
show the upper ridge flattening some towards the end of next week.
With the stable weather and already saturated ground. Low clouds and
patchy to areas of fog are likely for the westside valleys, and
Valleys around Klamath Falls. -Petrucelli

&&

.AVIATION...04/12Z TAFS...A band of showers is moving across
northern California and southern Oregon, west of the Cascades. While
this band will not have significant widespread impacts as it moves
eastward, ceilings and visibilities may locally be lower under
continuing activity. Little activity is expected to travel east of
the Cascades. Periods of lower ceilings and visibilities remain in
guidance for west side valleys. These possibilities remain in the
TAF forecast with low to medium confidence.

Scattered showers continue through tonight and into early Saturday
morning. A weak front will bring a slight increase in activity on
Saturday afternoon and evening, mostly along the Oregon coast and
the Cascades. Snow levels of 4500 to 5000 feet will allow for snow
showers over the Cascades, with some snow showers possible over east
side areas. -TAD

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 PM PST Friday, January 3, 2025...A cold front
has moved onshore this afternoon, but south-southwest winds will
remain elevated until a secondary pressure trough moves through
tonight. Very steep seas will be the main hazard through tonight as
a mix of wind waves and swell gradually transitions to swell
dominated seas tonight, and a hazardous seas warning remains in
effect.

Both winds and seas settle down briefly tomorrow morning and we
transition to a small craft advisory. However, south winds and wind
driven seas will rise again by afternoon as the next front
approaches. This front will be similar in magnitude to this
morning's front, which means winds approaching gales, but the main
hazard once again will be very steep seas. To avoid confusion and
excessive headlines, we'll wait until the current seas warning ends
to issue the next warning which will be either another hazardous
seas warning or gale warning depending on updated guidance.

The pattern looks to remain active Sunday with seas remaining high
and steep. The latest guidance suggests a period of high pressure
and north winds developing Monday, and continuing into mid-week with
seas dominated by a steep or nearly steep west swell. -Wright

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for ORZ027-028.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for CAZ080.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning until 1 AM PST
     Saturday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM PST Saturday for PZZ350-
     356-370-376.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Medford OR
1205 AM PST Sat Jan 4 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     Rain             Port Orford             42.75N 124.49W
01/04/2025  M2.07 Inch       Curry              OR   Trained Spotter

            24 hour total. Station Elevation: 300 ft.

&&