Severe Thunderstorm Warning 84, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
223 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 207 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

No significant update from the existing published discussions.
Convection is trying to get going across South Florida as a decent
cumulus field has developed with a few embedded showers.
Expecting more showers and thunderstorms to begin developing over
the next hour or so, and they will likely consolidate across
interior and Southwest Florida through the evening hours. Based on
the MFL 18Z sounding, there is plenty of instability across the
area and 500mb temps remain between -7C to -8C. Most storms should
remain well below severe thresholds but cannot completely rule
out an isolated marginally severe thunderstorm. Primary threat for
the remainder of the afternoon will be wind gusts 40-50mph within
the strongest cells, and very heavy downpours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 131 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Latest analysis and ensembles continue to show an amplified mid
level and upper level ridge remaining stagnant over the region which
is resulting in an extremely weak flow pattern. Surface high
pressure is also present over the western and central Atlantic. A
weak upper level low continues to sit near Cuba and will advance
northwards through the Gulf by the weekend before falling apart.
While this feature will not directly impact the local weather in
South Florida, it will still help influence the local conditions via
ongoing deep moisture advection. PWATs will generally range between
1.9-2.2" based on the latest ensembles, confirming that plentiful
deep moisture is available for diurnal convection, which is typical
for this time of year. With the strong ridge being the most dominant
feature, this will help suppress some of the vertical capabilities
for storm growth and lead to a typical summertime pattern where
convection initiates primarily as a result of peak diurnal heating
and the sea breezes advancing inland. Showers and isolated storms
are first expected to form near the east coast metro and nearshore
Atlantic waters before shifting more inland as the day progresses
into the afternoon and evening hours both today and Saturday. PoPs
will be highest for interior and west coast locations in the 70-80%
range while east coast locations will be around 50-60% primarily.

There will again not be a high chance for severe weather given the
robust ridge, but several parameters support the possibility of a
rogue marginally severe storm or two and a few sub-severe storms
that still contain strong wind gusts up to 40-50 mph. 500mb temps
will still range from -8C to -9C, which is below average at this
time of year. Additionally, the deep moisture will create plenty
of instability (SBCAPE 3000-4000 J/kg) and enough DCAPE (500-1000
J/kg) for stronger wind potential from storms even as the
atmospheric profile becomes highly saturated. Therefore, a couple
of stronger to marginally severe storms cannot be ruled out,
particularly for interior regions where the strongest convergence
occurs. Strong wind gusts and heavy downpours that limit
visibility will be the primary hazards with any storms on Friday
and Saturday.

High temperatures for Friday and Saturday will be in the upper 80s
for the immediate Atlantic coast, low 90s for the east coast metro
and interior areas, and low to mid 90s for the Gulf coast region.
Heat indices are expected to reach the 100-105F range, which while
below advisory criteria can impact more sensitive populations. If
planning to be outside for longer stretches of time, proper
hydration and limiting time in the heat is advised.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 131 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Synoptic scale ridging will continue to sit across the eastern half
of the US through the middle of next week, but despite that, there
will still be an unsettled nature in the weather pattern. Ensembles
are hinting at what looks to be an inverted trough of low pressure
developing off the coast of the Carolinas underneath the ridge in
the Sunday-Monday time frame. By Monday and Tuesday, this feature is
projected to propagate southwestward, eventually advecting across
the Florida Peninsula Tuesday and Wednesday. In general, this setup
would lead to deep moisture continuing to be locked in place across
the region and it also will provide extra forcing for ascent for
showers and thunderstorms. Therefore, while the evolution of this
feature is still highly uncertain, it is going to be something to
monitor in the next several days.

Outside of days influenced by that potential trough advecting
through the area, an ongoing typical summertime pattern will
continue underneath the large scale ridge. Daytime showers will
continue to develop near the coasts and adjacent local waters before
the focus shifts to inland locations as the sea breezes push inland
and converge. A low level southeasterly component is also expected
to be in place, which will force convection towards the Gulf coast
each day. Thus, highest chances for showers and thunderstorms each
day will be 60-80% for interior and Gulf coast areas and 40-60% for
Atlantic coast and metro areas.

High temperatures generally will range from the upper 80s to low 90s
each day across South Florida. Heat indices will reach the 100-105F
range as well most days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1259 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

VFR through the period with showers and thunderstorms developing
across South Florida this afternom. Coverage will become more
scattered over the next few hours, but should remain inland of the
terminals. Light southeasterly winds prevail. &&

.MARINE...
Issued at 131 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

A gentle to moderate southeasterly flow will continue for the
Atlantic waters on Friday and Saturday. Meanwhile, a lighter and
more variable wind flow will take place across the Gulf waters today
before also increasing to a gentle east-southeasterly breeze on
Saturday. Seas across all of the local waters will generally remain
at 2 feet or less for the next several days. Scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the local waters
each day.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 131 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

A gentle to moderate southeasterly flow will continue for the
Atlantic waters on Friday and Saturday. Meanwhile, a lighter and
more variable wind flow will take place across the Gulf waters today
before also increasing to a gentle east-southeasterly breeze on
Saturday. Seas across all of the local waters will generally remain
at 2 feet or less for the next several days. Scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the local waters
each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            80  90  79  90 /  20  70  10  50
West Kendall     76  90  75  90 /  20  70  10  50
Opa-Locka        80  93  79  93 /  20  70  10  50
Homestead        79  90  78  90 /  20  70  20  50
Fort Lauderdale  79  90  78  90 /  10  70  10  50
N Ft Lauderdale  80  90  79  90 /  10  70  10  50
Pembroke Pines   81  94  81  94 /  10  70  10  50
West Palm Beach  78  90  77  91 /  10  60  10  50
Boca Raton       78  92  77  93 /  10  60  10  50
Naples           76  92  77  92 /  20  70  10  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Redman
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION...Rizzuto

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
319 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

FLZ067-112000-
Inland Palm Beach County FL-
319 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Palm
Beach County through 400 PM EDT...

At 319 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm over Belle Glade Camp, or over Belle Glade.
This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Belle Glade, Pahokee, South Bay, Canal Point, Belle Glade Camp, and
Fremd Village-Padgett Island.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2689 8049 2662 8059 2661 8074 2669 8075
      2670 8072 2673 8073 2675 8072 2674 8071
      2676 8069 2679 8070 2688 8062 2692 8061
TIME...MOT...LOC 1919Z 183DEG 3KT 2667 8067

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

AR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
352 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

FLZ063-066-112100-
Hendry FL-Glades FL-
352 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Hendry
and Glades Counties through 500 PM EDT...

At 352 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near Moore Haven to
6 miles east of Lehigh Acres. Movement was north at 10 to 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Labelle, Moore Haven, Lakeport, Palmdale, Port La Belle, Brighton
Seminole Reservation, Ortona, Muse, and Lake Hicpochee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Miami. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2709 8104 2700 8105 2697 8109 2696 8108
      2695 8109 2695 8107 2694 8108 2693 8108
      2693 8112 2691 8110 2689 8112 2682 8106
      2680 8106 2655 8156 2703 8156 2703 8127
      2706 8127
TIME...MOT...LOC 1952Z 184DEG 13KT 2690 8110 2662 8152

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Baxter

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
404 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

FLZ067-068-168-112100-
Coastal Palm Beach County FL-Inland Palm Beach County FL-
Metro Palm Beach County FL-
404 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of central Palm Beach
County through 500 PM EDT...

At 404 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 7 miles southwest of
Lion Country Safari Park to near Belle Glade Camp. Movement was
northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
West Palm Beach, Wellington, Palm Beach Gardens, Belle Glade, South
Bay, Canal Point, Royal Palm Beach, Belle Glade Camp, North County
Airport, Loxahatchee Groves, Lion Country Safari Park, The Acreage,
Fremd Village-Padgett Island, Loxahatchee NWR, and Caloosa.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2691 8014 2655 8026 2654 8043 2663 8073
      2691 8060
TIME...MOT...LOC 2004Z 209DEG 9KT 2661 8042 2664 8065

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

AR

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