Severe Thunderstorm Warning 60, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
731 AM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 1131 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025

After a quiet lull overnight, activity will be quickly picking up
early this morning. The latest CAMS depict a similar active set up
for Sunday, with the heaviest showers beginning in the northern
half of our region near Lake O, and slowly move south throughout
the day. The SPC has the majority of South Florida under a
marginal risk (1 in 5) for strong to severe thunderstorms with
gusty winds. A rise in PWATs will assist the potential for
moderate to heavy rainfall with a threat for localized flooding.
However, due to the scattered nature of these showers and
thunderstorms, it may be a matter of where the rain falls and at
what time. The latest WPC QPF forecast shows the heaviest rain
over the southwest and near Lake Okeechobee. However, any influence
from sea breezes and outflow can impact how far, and where, the
thunderstorms make it when moving from the north. The threat for
erratic and gusty winds with frequent lightning will be possible
with any passing storms.

If you missed out on showers on Sunday, there will be another chance
on Monday with the new week starting out with more active weather.
The latest model runs show a favorable chance for widespread showers
across the region with an increase in PWATs to 2.2-2.4". This will
increase the threat for localized flooding, especially in urban
areas. The WPC has the east coast corridor with a marginal threat
(5-14%) for excessive rainfall leading to a flash flood risk.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1131 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025

Heading towards the middle of the week, unsettled conditions will
continue due to lingering moisture across South Florida. Periods
of showers and storms will be possible each day through the
remainder of the week with probabilities maximized during the
afternoon. However, there model disagreement, regarding the mid-
level trough's next step. Varying model guidance shows the
potential for a mid-level low off of the Southeast coastline
sometime between Tuesday and Wednesday. The latest guidance suite
remains in disagreement with the evolution of this low in regard
to location and how strong it actually becomes. At the same time,
the next plume of Saharan Dust may push into South Florida from
the Carribean, which could potentially bring some drier air into
the region which could affect convection coverage. Overall, higher
than usual uncertainty through the long term, However, the
unsettled pattern and wet conditions look to continue through the
upcoming week, especially sea breeze convection in the late week.
The latest forecast takes a blend of the models and keeps active
wet week ahead with near normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 722 AM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025

Periods of MVFR to IFR conditions likely this afternoon across all
TAF sites as a line of SHRA/TSRA moves through the region.
Generally westerly winds today.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1131 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025

Gentle to moderate winds will remain westerly over the weekend as
a frontal boundary stalls out. Chances for showers and storms
over local waters remains elevated through the weekend as a
front lingers across the Florida Peninsula. Seas across the
Atlantic waters will remain at 3 feet or less through the weekend
while seas across the Gulf waters remain at 2 feet or less. Any
thunderstorm that develops may produce brief periods of rough seas
and gusty winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            89  77  89  74 /  70  60  90  80
West Kendall     91  74  90  72 /  70  60  90  80
Opa-Locka        91  76  91  74 /  70  60  90  80
Homestead        90  76  89  74 /  60  60  90  80
Fort Lauderdale  88  76  88  73 /  80  60  90  80
N Ft Lauderdale  89  76  89  73 /  80  60  90  70
Pembroke Pines   92  78  92  76 /  80  60  90  70
West Palm Beach  87  73  88  72 /  90  60  90  70
Boca Raton       90  74  91  72 /  80  70  90  70
Naples           86  76  88  73 /  80  60  70  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM....JS
AVIATION...ATV