Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
314 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1239 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

Unsettled weather returns today as a cold front drops along the
Florida peninsula this afternoon. Surface analysis late this morning
placed the front over central Florida, with PWAT values slowly
surging ahead of its arrival per ACARS data at MIA and PBI airports,
up to 1.6 from 1.28 inches earlier today. Conditions will continue
to deteriorate as the front moves further south, with instability
and shear values also expected to increase. This will drive
convective development across portions of the interior and the
East Coast metro this afternoon. Coverage should remain
scattered, but some of the thunderstorms could be strong to severe
in nature, and could produce downbursts and damaging wind gusts.
There is also a possible hail threat present this afternoon, but
mid-level temperatures have been trending a little warmer in the
past couple model cycles, so confidence remains low that these
storms could produce severe hail. Heavy rainfall over urban areas
cannot be ruled out as well as the latest HREF LPMM shows
potential rainfall totals of 2-4 inches with the heaviest storms
today.

Temperatures this afternoon will remain hot and well above
average, with highs in the low to mid 90s across locations closer
to the coast with inland locations potentially reaching the upper
90s once again.

Conditions should start to improve shortly after sunset as the
environment, but with the front forecast to linger over South
Florida into tomorrow, showers and thunderstorms could once again
develop early tomorrow morning, and once again pose a marginal
severe threat for portions of South Florida. Winds will veer from
the east/southeast tomorrow, which could allow for coverage to
overspread further inland as compared to activity today. An increase
in cloud cover and rain chances combined with an earlier start of
shower and thunderstorm activity will keep temperatures slightly
cooler across the east coast metro areas on Friday with high temps
mainly in the upper 80s to low 90s with inland locations mainly
peaking out in the middle 90s. Temperatures along the immediate gulf
coast will remain in the upper 80s with metro areas reaching the low
90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

The aforementioned frontal boundary will be rapidly weakening over
the Florida Keys late on Friday as its parent trough moves into
the western Atlantic waters. However the residual moisture
associated with the decaying front will remain in place across the
region. This will allow for both the Atlantic and Gulf sea-breezes
to propagate inland with the greatest chance for afternoon showers
and storms across inland locales each afternoon through the
weekend. 500mb temperatures will remain on the cooler side between -8
and -10 C at times which will keep lapse rates on the steeper
side and could support a few storms on the stronger side. Heavy
rainfall, locally gusty winds and frequent lightning is all on the
table within storms that do develop. Sharp fluctuations and
gradients in afternoon temperatures are indeed possible as shower
and thunderstorm activity will act to knock down temperatures from
their diurnal peaks.

The next mid-level impulse will be pushing eastward across the
Central United states early next week and its associated frontal
boundary will be approaching the Florida peninsula be the middle
of next week. Similar pattern is expected through early next week
as southeasterly wind flow is maintained. This will lead to a
continuation of seabreeze thunderstorms across inland and
southwest portions of the area each afternoon. 500mb temperatures
will warm, which should keep the threat of stronger activity on
the lower side. As the next front approaches from the north,
surface flow will begin to slowly veer towards the south towards
the end of the period and end of the week.

 &&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

Periods of MVFR/IFR conditions could be possible late this
afternoon as a front approaches and SCT SHRA/TSRA impact the
terminals. Although TEMPOs were included in this cycle, short-
fuse amendments could be needed as conditions evolve.
Northwesterly winds prevail, but the East Coast sea breeze will
develop and move inland early this afternoon. Dry weather
overnight with light and variable winds, but chances for SHRA/TSRA
return early on Friday, with vis/cig reductions once again
possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1239 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

Mostly benign marine conditions will persist through the remainder
of the work week with light winds and seas 2 ft or less. Showers and
storms will be possible across the Lake Okeechobee and nearshore
Atlantic waters today and once again on Friday afternoon with the
potential of locally higher winds and waves occurring.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            78  90  78  90 /  30  60  20  30
West Kendall     75  92  74  92 /  30  60  20  30
Opa-Locka        77  92  76  92 /  40  60  20  30
Homestead        76  90  76  90 /  20  50  20  30
Fort Lauderdale  77  89  77  88 /  40  60  20  30
N Ft Lauderdale  76  89  76  89 /  50  60  20  30
Pembroke Pines   79  94  79  94 /  40  60  20  30
West Palm Beach  76  89  76  89 /  40  60  20  30
Boca Raton       77  91  76  90 /  50  60  20  30
Naples           76  90  74  91 /  20  50  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....Rizzuto
AVIATION...ATV

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