Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
340 PM EDT Tue May 6 2025

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1129 AM EDT Tue May 6 2025

The mid-week period will feature the rebuilding of a mid-level ridge
over South Florida, helping to stabilize the atmosphere to an
extent. This will be more so the case on Wednesday as the ridge
regains its magnitude and mid-level temperatures start to rise
several degrees. However, this will not be entirely the case today
as the ridge will just be starting to build and thus warm air
advection is not expected to be strong. This is evidenced by
ensemble guidance only showing an increase of about 1 degree
celsius, if that. Additionally, the rebuilding high pressure signals
that warmer low level and surface temperatures are likely due to
subsidence, which will increase the low level lapse rates, plus the
mid-level lapse rates will also be adequate. CAPE values based on
latest forecast soundings and 12Z MFL sounding look to rise to
2500-3000 J/kg for many areas while dew point temps will be well
into the 70s as well. Therefore, while the rebuilding high
pressure will inhibit convective growth/initiation to an extent,
the unstable state of the atmosphere leads to a conclusion that
there will still be some scattered showers and thunderstorms in
the afternoon and this will be further aided by the afternoon Gulf
breeze and Atlantic sea breeze for extra lift and low level
convergence. Flow will be veering a little more easterly to a
SE/SSE direction, which points to the strongest storms developing
over the interior and towards Gulf coast locations. Nevertheless,
a few storms are still possible along the east coast as well with
the highest chances for Palm Beach county given the southerly wind
component. Overall, while subsidence from an amplifying ridge
will try to hamper convection, parameters exist for some stronger
storms again and a few could become marginally severe or at
minimum near-severe. Primary threats will once again be for strong
winds, large hail, and heavy downpours.

The mid-level ridge will amplify further on Wednesday with mid-level
temperatures rising to help diminish strong thunderstorm chances.
However, there will be enough low level moisture in place to still
support a few scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
especially along the sea breezes and where they collide. Low level
flow will still be out of the SSE which will put the focus for
development on Wednesday towards the Lake Okeechobee region and
inland South Florida where the sea breezes collide.

Temperatures for the mid week period are expected to rise further
given high pressure building back over the area. Max temperatures
today and on Wednesday are expected in the upper 80s to low 90s for
most areas except the east coast beaches which will hit the low to
mid 80s. With dew points in the 70s, heat indices could climb into
triple digits for a few hours particularly for interior SW Florida.
These are the highest heat index values in quite a while, so persons
are advised to use extra caution to protect themselves against the
heat in SW Florida. Elsewhere, heat indices will top out in the
low to mid 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 308 PM EDT Tue May 6 2025

Mid level ridging will hold strong over South Florida through
Thursday while surface high pressure centered over the western
Atlantic extends towards South Florida. With plenty of subsidence
in place along with a west to northwest wind flow aloft, this will
allow for the relatively drier air mass to remain in place across
the region through Thursday. At the surface, a light to moderate
southeasterly synoptic wind regime will remain in place due to the
location of the surface high in the western Atlantic. This will
allow for just enough lower level moisture to move in to support
the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms where the
sea breezes collide on Thursday afternoon. This will help to keep
the highest chance of showers and storms over the Lake Okeechobee
region as well as interior portions of Southwest Florida during
this time frame. High temperatures on Thursday will generally rise
into the mid to upper 80s across the east coast metro areas and
into the lower 90s across interior portions of Southwest Florida.

For the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend, mid level
ridging begins to break down on Friday in response to a deepening
mid level low/trough complex moving out of the Southern Plains
towards the lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast states. At
the surface, this will cause a frontal boundary to slowly push
across the Southeast on Friday and then into the Northern and
Central portion of the Florida Peninsula over the upcoming
weekend.

The uncertainty in the forecast still remains high heading into
the upcoming weekend and into early next week as the latest
guidance suite has trended slower in regards to the southeastern
progression of the surface frontal boundary as well as the mid
level trough/low complex. This delay could keep some of the drier
air in place through the weekend and pushing the moisture surge
across the region into the early portion of next week. While there
would still be enough lower level moisture in place to support
convection due to sea breeze development and interaction over the
weekend, the added mid level support and frontal boundary support
may be delayed until the early portion of next week. The latest
forecast takes a blend of the forecast models and favors the
highest chances of showers and thunderstorms (50-60 percent)
focused over the Lake Region as well as Southwest Florida each
afternoon with lower chances (30-40 percent) over the east coast
metro areas through the weekend. High temperatures through the
weekend will generally rise into the mid to upper 80s across the
east coast metro areas to the lower 90s across interior portions
of Southwest Florida.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1129 AM EDT Tue May 6 2025

Southeast winds prevail today with VFR conditions expected across
most areas. Shower and thunderstorm activity expected to remain
across inland and Southwest Florida, so no mention of thunder for
eastern sites with this update, although they may impact APF.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1129 AM EDT Tue May 6 2025

High pressure will slowly rebuild over the local waters through mid-
week, with prevailing winds out of the SE at 10-15 knots and seas
generally less than 2 feet. A few localized showers and
thunderstorms remain possible each day, which can cause locally
higher wind and seas at times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            76  85  74  86 /   0  10   0  10
West Kendall     73  88  71  89 /   0  10   0  10
Opa-Locka        74  88  73  89 /   0  10   0  20
Homestead        76  85  73  87 /   0  10   0  10
Fort Lauderdale  75  83  74  85 /   0  10  10  20
N Ft Lauderdale  75  85  73  85 /   0  10  10  20
Pembroke Pines   76  90  75  90 /   0  10   0  20
West Palm Beach  73  85  72  86 /  10  20  10  20
Boca Raton       74  86  73  88 /  10  10  10  20
Naples           72  88  72  88 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Redman
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...Rizzuto

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