Severe Thunderstorm Warning 30, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
322 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1240 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025

A slow-moving deep layered low pressure system over Tennessee and
Kentucky has a trough which extends south into the eastern Gulf. At
the surface, a stationary front lies across Central Florida. South
of the front, a weak ridge is across South Florida. The low pressure
system is expected to move north over the next 24-36 hours, finally
lessening its influence on South Florida's weather, with a shortwave
mid/upper level ridge building into our area on Tuesday.

Similar to yesterday, the influence of the deep layered low pressure
will contribute to a few strong to severe thunderstorms this
afternoon across portions of South Florida. Colder air aloft
(exemplified by -22C at 400 mb from the morning Miami sounding) is
leading to mid-level lapse rates of 7 to 7.5 C/km. Dewpoints at
midday are in the lower to mid 70s, noticeably higher than the past
several days. Plenty of morning sunshine will result in highs
reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s most areas before convective
initiation, with CAPE values around 2500 J/kg this afternoon. These
parameters are more conducive for strong to severe storms compared
to yesterday, with the only potential limiting factor is drier
mid/upper level air. Model consensus is for thunderstorms to develop
early this afternoon along a zone from the central Everglades to
western suburbs of Palm Beach County, generally along the
convergence of the east and west coast seabreezes, and the Lake
Okeechobee breeze in Palm Beach County. Storm motion will be
generally NE-E, but with the slightly stronger SE low level winds,
the bulk of the convection should concentrate over the interior. As
was the case yesterday, outflows will propagate away from the storms
and lead to redeveloping convection over interior SW Florida as well
as closer to the east coast metro areas. Also, with 25-35 knots of
westerly mid-level winds opposing the low level SE winds, there
could once again be cold pools which could enhance backbuilding
convection along mesoscale boundaries. The main hazards for this
afternoon are large hail and damaging wind, and accordingly SPC has
upgraded the severe thunderstorm risk to Slight/Level 2 of 5. There
is also a significantly lower (but non-zero) threat of a tornado.

From a rainfall/flooding perspective, backbuilding and slow-moving
storms have the potential of dropping as much as 2-4 inches in
localized areas this afternoon and early evening, favoring interior
locations but not totally ruling out portions of the east coast
metro with a localized flood threat. Thunderstorms could linger as
late as 8-10 PM this evening before dissipating.

Lingering surface moisture and light winds overnight should set the
stage for patchy fog over interior South Florida, lasting until
shortly after sunrise Tuesday.

After a few late night/early morning showers over the near-shore
waters of both coasts, the setup for Tuesday looks to favor less
instability as the ridge aloft builds in and mid/upper level
temperatures rise. Temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s and
dewpoints remaining mostly in the 70s will provide enough
instability for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. As low level SE
winds become more established across South Florida, favored areas
for thunderstorms will shift westward to over interior SW Florida as
opposed to the eastern half of the peninsula. This is reflected in
the highest PoPs and QPF over those areas. A couple of stronger
storms may still occur on Tuesday, but not expected to be as intense
as the previous 2 days.

Another result of the building ridge on Tuesday is increasing
temperatures, with max temps well into the lower 90s over inland
SW Florida. This coupled with dewpoints in the lower 70s will
result in heat index values in the 100-103F range for a few hours
across these areas. These are the highest heat index values in
quite a while, so persons are advised to use extra caution to
protect themselves against the heat. Elsewhere, heat index on
Tuesday will top out in the lower to mid 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025

The weather pattern across South Florida will show signs of change
heading into the middle portion of the week as mid level ridging
centered over the Gulf extends eastward over the region. At the
surface, the western periphery of an area of high pressure over
the Atlantic waters will extend westward over South Florida. This
will help to keep a light to moderate southeasterly wind flow in
place across the area during this time frame. With increased
subsidence due to the influence of mid level ridging and high
pressure nosing into the region from the western Atlantic, this
may help to usher in some drier air especially across southern and
eastern areas. The latest guidance suite shows PWAT values of 1.1
to 1.3 inches pushing into the east coast metro areas during this
time frame. Higher moisture amounts will remain in place further
to the north as well as Southwest Florida with PWAT values ranging
between 1.5 to 1.6 inches on Wednesday and Thursday. While these
moisture values will help to limit overall coverage of shower and
thunderstorm activity, there will still be enough lower level
moisture in place to support isolated to scattered showers and
storms along the sea breezes as the push inland. The greatest
coverage of storms during this time will be over the Lake
Okeechobee region as well as the interior portions of Southwest
Florida where the sea breezes collide. High temperatures will
generally rise into the mid to upper 80s across the east coast
metro areas and into the lower 90s across interior portions of
Southwest Florida.

Mid level ridging will start to flatten out on Friday as an
amplifying longwave trough slowly pushes through the Southeast
and Gulf coast states. This mid level trough will continue to
slowly amplify towards the weekend as it pushes southeastward
into the Gulf and closer to the Florida Peninsula. At the surface,
this will cause a frontal boundary to push into Northern and
Central Florida on Friday into Saturday before stalling out over
Central Florida on Sunday. With southwesterly flow aloft combined
with winds slowly veering at the surface and becoming more
southerly, this will allow for plenty of moisture advection to
take place during this time frame.

While the exact details remain uncertain at this time, with the
higher amounts of moisture advecting into the region, the chances
of showers and thunderstorms look to increase area wide
especially heading into Saturday and Sunday as the frontal
boundary stalls out to the north. This frontal boundary may
provide an extra source of lift when combined with the sea breezes
to provide for the potential of a few of the thunderstorms to
become strong each afternoon. Where these strong storms set up
will depend on the intensity of the mid level trough as well as
how much heating takes place as there will be increased cloud
cover over the region. This will continue to be monitored as the
week progresses. High temperatures this weekend may rise into the
lower to mid 80s across the Lake Okeechobee region to the upper
80s along and South of Alligator Alley.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025

TSRA developing over the peninsula and expected to affect MIA-
FLL-PBI corridor in the 19z-01z time frame. Expect occasional MVFR
and brief IFR conditions along with wind gusts 35 knots or higher
to affect at least a few of the terminals. KAPF will remain
precip-free and VFR through the period. TSRA dissipating, with
mainly VFR conditions after 02z, with only isolated SHRA or TSRA
for remainder of forecast period. Wind SE 10-13 knots, except SW
seabreeze at KAPF through 01z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1240 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025

High pressure will slowly rebuild over the local waters this week,
with prevailing winds out of the SE at 10-15 knots and seas
generally less than 4 ft. The main threat over the local waters will
be showers and thunderstorms, primarily this afternoon and tonight,
causing locally higher wind and seas.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1240 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025

The rip current risk will remain low for most of the week as SE
winds be mainly less than 15 mph. As is the case with the local
waters, the primary beach threat will be lightning and locally
strong wind gusts during the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            76  86  75  85 /  50  20   0  10
West Kendall     72  89  72  88 /  50  30   0  10
Opa-Locka        74  89  74  88 /  60  30   0  10
Homestead        75  86  74  85 /  40  20   0  10
Fort Lauderdale  75  84  74  83 /  60  20   0  10
N Ft Lauderdale  74  85  74  85 /  60  30   0  10
Pembroke Pines   76  90  76  90 /  60  30   0  10
West Palm Beach  72  86  73  85 /  50  30  10  20
Boca Raton       73  87  74  86 /  60  30   0  20
Naples           71  88  72  88 /  10  30  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Molleda
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...Molleda

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Miami FL
238 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0237 PM     Hail             1 SW Greenacres City    26.62N 80.15W
05/05/2025  M1.00 Inch       Palm Beach         FL   Trained Spotter

            Trained spotter near Lake Worth Road and Jog
            Road reported hail up to the size of quarter
            dollars at 237 PM EDT.

&&

RAG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Miami FL
307 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     Hail             3 SSE Aberdeen Golf Cou 26.53N 80.15W
05/05/2025  E1.50 Inch       Palm Beach         FL   Trained Spotter

            Trained spotter reported hail between the
            size of a quarter dollar and ping pong balls
            falling in West Boynton Beach between 255 PM
            EDT and 305 PM EDT.

&&

RAG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Miami FL
314 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     Hail             3 SSW Aberdeen Golf Cou 26.53N 80.19W
05/05/2025  E1.00 Inch       Palm Beach         FL   Trained Spotter

            Trained spotter report hail ranging in size
            from peas to quarter dollars starting at 300
            PM EDT around W Boynton Beach Blvd and Lyons
            Rd.

&&

RAG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Miami FL
340 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     Hail             3 WSW The Acreage       26.75N 80.29W
05/05/2025  E1.00 Inch       Palm Beach         FL   Public

            Broadcast media relayed public video of
            hailstones estimated to be around the size
            of quarter dollars falling into a swimming
            pool in the Westlake area near Wellington.
            Time estimated around 210 PM EDT.

&&

RAG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Miami FL
343 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     Hail             3 E Lion Country Safari 26.71N 80.31W
05/05/2025  E1.00 Inch       Palm Beach         FL   Public

            Corrects previous hail report from 3 WSW The
            Acreage. Broadcast media relayed public
            video of hailstones estimated to be around
            the size of quarter dollars falling into a
            swimming pool in the Westlake area near
            Wellington. Time estimated around 210 PM
            EDT.

&&

RAG

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