Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1259 PM EDT Sun May 4 2025

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1253 PM EDT Sun May 4 2025

South Florida will remain under the influence of a deep layered low
pressure system centered over Tennessee and Kentucky, with the base
of the longwave trough rotating a few shortwaves through our area.
At the surface/low levels, a cold front across North Florida today
will stall over North-Central Florida on Monday, with a moistening
southerly wind flow across South Florida.

The combination of cold air aloft associated with the longwave
trough, increasing low level instability, and strengthening mid-
level winds will lead to a threat of strong/severe thunderstorms
this afternoon as well as Monday afternoon. Daily details below.

This afternoon: At midday an area of showers with a few embedded
thunderstorms is moving through the nearshore Gulf waters, SW
Florida and the Lake Okeechobee region. To the east and south,
convection will begin to develop in earnest during the early
afternoon while the initial area of precipitation gradually
diminishes across SW Florida mid to late afternoon. Midday
temperatures in the lower to mid 80s/dewpoints in the lower 70s is
providing enough instability for initial precip development
across the Everglades and SE Florida. The east coast seabreeze is
expected to push inland and provide the necessary focus for
organized showers/thunderstorms. The amount of instability is
being somewhat limited by high level cloud debris, a stubborn
inversion at the 700 mb level, as well as weak low level
convergence, but these limiting factors should erode with
additional heating and the seabreeze providing increased
convergence. This all points to the current forecast of
strong/severe thunderstorms being on track, with the east coast
metro areas seeing the greatest coverage of thunderstorms.
Damaging wind gusts and hail are the main threats, with one or two
tornadoes not out of the question near and along the east coast
seabreeze. There is also the threat of localized flooding from any
thunderstorms that backbuild along the seabreeze front this
afternoon where high-end precipitation forecasts from the NBM are
in the 2-4 inch range.

Showers and thunderstorms will shift mainly offshore over the
Atlantic after 9-10 PM, with a lingering slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms along the east coast overnight.

A fairly similar pattern to today is forecast for Monday as another
shortwave rotates around the base of the longwave trough.
Thunderstorms may be slower to develop compared to today due to
subsidence behind today's round of convection, but a bit more
diurnal heating should set the stage for thunderstorms to form by
afternoon. The low level flow will be slightly more out of the SE,
which should tend to focus the thunderstorms over the interior where
the Gulf and Atlantic seabreezes converge, and then move slowly
towards the east coast during the afternoon. Main storm threats for
Monday will continue to be strong winds, hail, and a tornado or two
along the seabreeze.

Precip will keep most highs in the 80s this afternoon, then increase
into the lower 90s over interior SW Florida with more morning
sunshine on Monday. Monday's highs over metro areas along both
coasts will be in the mid to upper 80s. Lows tonight will range from
the mid 60s to the lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 200 AM EDT Sun May 4 2025

Overall drier weather returns for Tuesday through Thursday as upper
level ridging builds into the area and surface high pressure over
the western Atlantic is in control. Minimal shower chances are
expected each day, mainly coming in off the E/SE breeze along the
Atlantic coast, and along the sea-breezes during the late afternoon
into early evening hours. By late in the week into next weekend, a
slow moving upper level system will approach the northern Gulf.
Moisture ahead of this system will increase locally, bringing higher
chances of showers and thunderstorms back to South FL.

Temperatures will remain slightly above normal across the east coast
metro with highs in the middle 80s, and above normal over interior
and SW FL with highs each day in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Lows in
the 60s/70s are expected each night next week, with the warmest
overnight lows near the Atlantic coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1253 PM EDT Sun May 4 2025

TSRA to spread across the MIA-FLL-PBI corridor through at least
00z. The activity near PBI may end around 22z, but at MIA-FLL the
TSRA may come in two or three rounds through 00z. MVFR and brief
IFR expected along with gusts 30 knots or higher. KAPF will see a
round of SHRA/isolated TSRA, then diminish by 21z. Mainly dry
except for lingering SHRA along the east coast after 02z, then
another round of TSRA Monday by 18z favoring MIA-FLL-PBI corridor.
Winds mainly SE-S 10 knots, except SW at KAPF through 03z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1253 PM EDT Sun May 4 2025

High pressure will slowly rebuild over the local waters during the
upcoming week, with prevailing winds out of the SE at 10-15 knots
and seas generally less than 4 ft. The main threat over the local
waters will be showers and thunderstorms, primarily this afternoon
through Tuesday, causing locally higher wind and seas.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1253 PM EDT Sun May 4 2025

The rip current risk will remain low for the next few days as SE
winds remain less than 15 mph. As is the case with the local waters,
the primary beach threat will be lightning and locally strong wind
gusts this afternoon as well as Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            74  85  74  86 /  60  40  20  20
West Kendall     71  88  72  88 /  50  50  20  20
Opa-Locka        73  88  73  88 /  60  50  20  20
Homestead        73  86  74  86 /  40  50  20  20
Fort Lauderdale  73  83  74  84 /  70  60  30  20
N Ft Lauderdale  73  84  73  85 /  60  50  30  20
Pembroke Pines   74  89  75  90 /  60  60  30  20
West Palm Beach  71  85  72  86 /  70  60  30  20
Boca Raton       71  86  73  86 /  70  40  30  20
Naples           71  87  70  88 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Molleda
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...Molleda

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