Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
235 AM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES, FIRE WEATHER...

...Dangerous Fire Conditions Today For Most Of South Florida...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 231 AM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025

Quite the muggy and humid start to Monday as surface dewpoints
remain in the low 70s with light southerly flow ongoing. A frontal
boundary continues on slow approach to South Florida, continuing to
drag moist and unstable air into the lower boundary layer. A 300mb
jet-streak propagating across the region out ahead of a mid-level
trough across the southeastern United States is providing localized
ascent along the surface boundary which has resulted in a broken
line of showers and storms. At the time of writing the discussion
(2:30 am), while a line of storms has indeed materialized with
robust lightning, the heavily sheared environment has resulted in
the prevention of a core sustaining itself long enough to produce
severe weather. While shear can work in favor of severe weather,
too much shear can stifle an updraft and limit the vertical height
of a core. A brief duration of heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and
lightning is possible if a thunderstorm directly moves overhead.

As winds veer to a northerly direction and enhance behind the
frontal passage this morning, extremely dry air will filter into the
region resulting in forecasted dewpoint values in the 30s and 40s.
When taking a look at Storm Prediction Center's Sounding Climatology
database for the date, forecasted dewpoint values for South Florida
will be near daily minimum values and well below the 10th
percentile. Breezy northwesterly flow will usher in continued cool
air advection and suppress much in the form of cloud cover. Forecast
high temperatures will range from the lower 70s across northern
locales to temperatures in the upper 70s close to 80 across the
southern extent of South Florida. The main concern for our land
areas today after the departure of the cold front and any associated
convection will be dangerous fire conditions. For a specific
discussion on the threat, please see the dedicated fire weather
section of this discussion.

As surface ridging gradually slides eastward across the southeastern
United States, winds will begin to lessen and veer to a northerly
direction tonight. Clear skies and lessening winds will set the
stage for a cold night (by mid March standards) across South Florida
with forecasted low temperatures in the mid to upper 40s across
inland southwestern Florida, upper 40s to near 50 along the gulf
coast and east coast suburbs, and temperatures in the low to mid 50s
along the immediate east coast. A few locales in southwestern
Florida could drop into the low 40s if winds decouple with apparent
temperatures in the low 40s forecast for the rest of southwestern
Florida. As surface ridging continues it's pivot eastward across the
southeastern United States on Tuesday, winds will veer from a
northerly direction to northeasterly direction after daybreak. This
subtle wind shift will keep high temperatures cooler along the
immediate east coast while created a gradient from northeast to
southwest across the area. The warmest forecast high temperatures
will be across southern Collier and Mainland Monroe counties with
highs in the low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 212 AM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025

Upper level ridging and surface high pressure will be in place through
mid week, which will lead to fairly quiet weather across South
Florida. Afternoon highs on Tuesday and Wednesday will be near
normal in the upper 70s to lower 80s, but the overnight lows will
be chilly for mid to late March with lows ranging from the upper
40s around the lake, to near 60 across the east coast metro.

The next front will cross South Florida late in the week, likely
in the Thursday night through Friday morning time frame. While
this will be mainly a dry front with limited if any shower
development, it will reinforce the cooler and drier air for the
start of the weekend with high temperatures remaining near normal
and overnight lows slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 231 AM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025

Gusty southerly flow early this morning will quickly veer to a
northwesterly direction behind the front and enhance. There is the
potential of sub-MVFR cigs/vis with a broken line of SHRA/TSRA that
may move through northern terminals. Winds will remain gusty out of
a northwesterly direction for the remainder of the day before
lessening tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 231 AM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025

Breezy southerly winds early this morning will quickly veer to a
northwesterly direction and remain elevated today behind the passage
of a frontal boundary. This will lead to hazardous winds and seas
for the local Atlantic and Gulf waters. These hazardous marine
conditions will return and linger into at least early Tuesday for
the Gulf waters, and into mid-week for the Atlantic waters. An
additional period of hazardous winds and seas is possible late next
week with the passage of another cold front.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 231 AM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025

A high risk of rip currents will continue for the Gulf beaches
through Tuesday morning. The risk of rip currents along the east
coast of South Florida will increase on Tuesday as winds veer back
to an onshore direction and northerly swell picks up. This increased
risk along the east coast will likely persist through the mid-week
period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 231 AM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025

As dry air filters in behind the frontal boundary, relative humidity
values in the mid 20s to low 30s will be realized across the region
this afternoon. Northwesterly winds of 10-20 mph with gusts up to 25
mph will remain elevated during the afternoon hours. With ongoing
drought conditons across most of the region, a Red Flag Warning will
go into effect for the majority of South Florida (with the exception
of coastal Collier County) from 12pm to 8pm today. Any fires that
develop today could spread rapidly, outdoor burning is not
recommended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            78  55  77  60 /  10   0   0   0
West Kendall     80  50  79  56 /  10   0   0   0
Opa-Locka        79  53  78  59 /  10   0   0   0
Homestead        79  52  77  59 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  76  54  75  60 /  10   0   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  76  54  76  60 /  10   0   0   0
Pembroke Pines   80  55  80  60 /  10   0   0   0
West Palm Beach  75  53  75  58 /  10   0   0   0
Boca Raton       76  53  76  59 /  10   0   0   0
Naples           72  50  78  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     FLZ068-071>075-168-172>174.

     High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for FLZ069.

AM...     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for GMZ656-657-676.

&&

SHORT TERM...Hadi
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION...Hadi

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Miami FL
851 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
180100-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach County-Metro Palm Beach County-
Coastal Collier County-Inland Collier County-Inland Broward County-
Metro Broward County-Inland Miami-Dade County-
Metropolitan Miami Dade-Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach County-
Coastal Broward County-Coastal Miami Dade County-Far South Miami-
Dade County-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
851 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

...Isolated Strong Thunderstorms Possible Overnight...
...High Risk Of Rip Currents: Gulf Coast Beaches...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters,
southeast Florida, southern Florida, southwest Florida and Gulf of
America.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Rip Currents: There is a high risk of rip currents for the Gulf
Coast beaches.

Marine: Hazardous winds and seas continue over South Florida's
Atlantic waters, and will begin over the Gulf waters later tonight.

Thunderstorms: A few thunderstorms are possible late tonight, with
isolated strong storms, as a cold front moves through the area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The rip current risk will remain elevated for the Atlantic beaches
into early next week. A high risk of rip currents could materialize
along the Gulf beaches on Monday.

A few isolated thunderstorms are possible early Monday morning as a
cold front crosses the area.

Hazardous marine conditions will linger through early Tuesday in the
Gulf and through at least mid-week for the Atlantic waters.
Additional
hazardous conditions are possible late week with the passage of
another cold front.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
330 AM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025

FLZ063-066-170800-
Hendry FL-Glades FL-
330 AM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northeastern Hendry
and south central Glades Counties through 400 AM EDT...

At 330 AM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
strong thunderstorms capable of producing a funnel cloud along a line
extending from Moore Haven to near Devils Garden. Movement was east
at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Funnel clouds, wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph, and pea size
         hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Funnel clouds occasionally touch down and produce tornadoes
         or waterspouts. Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and
         blow around unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Harlem, Montura, Clewiston, Devils Garden, Lake Hicpochee, and Moore
Haven.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2687 8109 2686 8109 2685 8110 2682 8106
      2681 8095 2681 8097 2680 8097 2680 8096
      2677 8094 2675 8089 2658 8089 2659 8129
      2687 8114
TIME...MOT...LOC 0730Z 251DEG 26KT 2681 8110 2666 8120

FUNNEL CLOUD...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Hadi

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
421 AM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025

FLZ066-067-170845-
Hendry FL-Inland Palm Beach County FL-
421 AM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Hendry and
northwestern Palm Beach Counties through 445 AM EDT...

At 420 AM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm near Lake Harbor, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
South Bay, Canal Point, Pahokee, Belle Glade, Lake Harbor, Belle
Glade Camp, and Fremd Village-Padgett Island.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Funnel clouds can touch down and produce waterspouts. Although
typically weak and short lived, a landfalling waterspout can cause
property damage and serious injury.

&&

LAT...LON 2669 8055 2664 8072 2664 8089 2675 8089
      2673 8085 2670 8082 2670 8078 2669 8074
      2670 8072 2674 8073 2676 8075 2678 8073
      2674 8071 2676 8069 2681 8070 2684 8065
      2689 8062 2696 8061 2696 8054
TIME...MOT...LOC 0820Z 254DEG 23KT 2672 8085

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Hadi

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
448 AM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025

FLZ067-170915-
Inland Palm Beach County FL-
448 AM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Palm
Beach County through 515 AM EDT...

At 448 AM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm capable of producing a funnel cloud over Belle
Glade, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Funnel clouds and wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Funnel clouds occasionally touch down and produce tornadoes
         or waterspouts. Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and
         blow around unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Belle Glade Camp, South Bay, Fremd Village-Padgett Island, Pahokee,
and Belle Glade.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the
formation of funnel clouds. Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and
local media for additional updates and possible warnings.

&&

LAT...LON 2658 8045 2662 8076 2669 8075 2669 8074
      2670 8072 2674 8073 2675 8074 2677 8074
      2678 8073 2677 8072 2675 8072 2674 8071
      2676 8069 2678 8070 2681 8070 2684 8065
      2683 8044
TIME...MOT...LOC 0848Z 280DEG 26KT 2670 8070

FUNNEL CLOUD...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Hadi